斐波那契黄金分割
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黄金走势推演与后市机会分析(2025.11.2)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-02 15:43
Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market experienced a downward trend in the first three trading days of the week, followed by a strong rebound on Thursday, and ended with a consolidation pattern on Friday, resulting in a weekly bearish candle with a long lower shadow [1] - October's gold market closed with a bullish candle featuring a long upper shadow, indicating a pattern of price increase followed by a pullback throughout the month [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is entering a new phase, with officials expressing concerns about the possibility of rate cuts in December. Key speeches from various Fed officials next week will be crucial for market sentiment [2] - Important economic data releases next week include the ISM and ADP reports, with expectations for the ISM manufacturing PMI to return above the 50 mark for the first time since February 2025 [3] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Events - The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments regarding Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with significant implications for economic interests and presidential powers [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a phase of structural differentiation, with three potential paths for price evolution based on Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracement levels [5][9][12][15] - The first scenario suggests a continuation of the B-wave rebound, requiring the price to hold above the recent low of 3886 to confirm the rebound's validity [9] - The second scenario indicates a potential extension of the A-wave decline if the price breaks below 3886, with key support levels identified at 3846 and 3720 [12] - The third scenario posits a trend reversal if the price breaks above 4381 after holding above 3886, suggesting a new upward trend [15]