黄金： 黄金周初大概率维持区间震荡整理，本周数据面迎来密集爆发，周二美国非农数据、周四CPI数据及周五日本央行利率 决议陆续登场，其中日本央行是否开启加息周期成为市场核心聚焦点。多重重磅数据共振影响下，黄金行情波动预计显 著加剧，消息面或触发单边行情，操作需严控风险、灵活应对。回顾前期走势，金价曾于4380关口两次承压回落，形成 经典"双顶"看空形态，随后价格下探至3900附近企稳回升。此后市场进入对称三角形整理阶段，结合前期上行趋势判 断，该整理结构构成强势延续的"牛市旗形"形态，为后续行情上涨筑牢基础。 四小时线级别短期走势呈强势震荡上行态势，价格依托短期均线稳步运行，回调幅度有限。MACD指标维持金叉形态， 红柱动能虽偶有小幅收缩，但整体支撑有效，多头动能未明显衰减；RSI指标运行于强势区域，未触及极端超买区间， 短期虽存在小幅回调修正需求，但未破坏整体多头结构，回调后仍具备上行动能，短期震荡为后续上行蓄力。 日线级别整体呈现明确多头格局，金价成功突破前期整理区间，稳固运行于4200整数关口上方，多头动能持续释放。K 线连续收阳，均线系统呈多头排列，短期均线对价格形成有效支撑；MACD指标红柱持续扩张， ...

撰文：嘉盛集团资深策略师 Razan Hilal 重要事件 在FOMC会议以及年末市场动能的推动下，白银价格大幅上涨，逼近历史高点62美元关口。这种背离引 发了人们对更广泛市场趋势可持续性的质疑，其仍低于2025年历史高点。 标普500指数3个月展望 - 对数坐标 来源： Tradingview 这种背离不仅体现在价格上，也体现在市场情绪上——在经历了新总统任期内的政策转变和关税变化引 发的长达一年的市场乏力后，将市场定价推向极端化。历史上，总统第二个任期往往与市场盘整阶段相 契合，使市场在下一轮牛市周期前"重置"，如下所示。 考虑到黄金、白银与美国股指之间的相关性日益增强，此处将标普500指数与整体市场表现及贵金属 （尤其是白银）进行对比分析。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 关键问题在于，白银究竟只是本轮长期牛市中最后一个强势品种，还是因其在不断扩张的科技板块中日 益增长的重要性而引领下一阶段。与此同时： · 美国股指维持在关键阻力位下方 · 黄金仍低于4200，距离历史高点仍差150多个点 只有有效突破2025年高点，才能判断市场是进入季节性的圣诞行情，还是继续盘整。 ...

周五(12月12日)亚洲时段，现货白银呈现反弹走势，价格重回正值区间，欧市盘中，现货白银走势横盘 震荡，多头趋势等待动能，后续或试探64美元阻力位，银价正逼近64.00美元/盎司水平。今晚关注美联 储古尔斯比参加对话。 【要闻聚焦】 近期，降息预期升温、市场乐观情绪推动白银价格创出历史新高。白银兼具金融属性及商品属性。金融 属性方面，白银与黄金均处于流动性宽松的宏观环境。供应方面，全球白银已连续5年处于供不应求的 状态，2025年市场缺口预计达2950吨。 此外金银比价持续修复至66附近，本轮金银比价修复由白银上涨来驱动。白银作为交易属性和工业属性 更强的金属，在降息和需求强劲的背景下，价格上涨幅度更大。从资产配置方面来看，在金价上涨后， 估值更低、弹性更高的白银吸引了避险资金与趋势资金的共同配置。 另外前段时间因价格相对低位而出现的"囤银"现象已不再明显。随着价格快速上涨，消费者和投资者的 观望情绪增多，成交节奏有所放缓。这说明即便行情强劲，市场参与者仍保持有一定的理性判断。 向下方面，白银对在61.50美元(12月11日低点)的前阻力区域找到了支撑。低于此处，下一目标是12月10 日的低点60.00美元和 ...

然而，市场关注的焦点迅速转向政策声明及主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会表态。点阵图显示，决策者预计到 2026年底联邦基金利率将降至3.4%，意味着明年仅有一次降息空间。 尽管如此，鲍威尔在记者会上强调美国劳动力市场面临显着下行风险，美联储不希望其政策抑制就业创 造。这一措辞被市场解读为偏鸽派信号，部分交易员据此押注明年或有两次降息，而非点阵图暗示的一 次。 与此同时，美联储宣布从12月12日起购买约400亿美元短期国债，以管理市场流动性，这进一步扩大了 其资产负债表，结束了自2022年以来量化紧缩的进程。这种流动性注入对风险资产构成利好，但对美元 等避险资产形成压力，从而间接推升白银吸引力。 今日周六，白银市场休市。本周白银毫无疑问迎来了"牛市"，周二收盘站上60美元，宣布白银来 到"60+"时代，另外在美联储确认降息后，周四白银创下第四个连续交易日纪录新高，一度登上了64美 元高峰。 【要闻速递】 本周最大事件毫无疑问是——美联储降息决议。美联储在周三宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标 区间下调至3.50%至3.75%，这一举措符合市场预期。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 从周线图(对数坐标)来看，白银价格已成功突 ...

Core Insights - The analysis indicates that the market has experienced 73 identified waves since the low on April 7, suggesting a need for continuous re-evaluation of market trends due to potential miscounting of waves [1] - The projected completion of various waves aligns closely with actual market movements, demonstrating a high accuracy rate of +/-2% for the identified targets [2][3] - The current market trajectory suggests that if the SPX index remains above 6631, a target of approximately 7120 for Wave-5 is anticipated, while a drop below 6720 could indicate a potential decline to around 6575 [4] Wave Analysis - The analysis of the Elliott Wave pattern since early September shows that the index has tracked closely with projections, including a peak at 6890 for W-3, which is within the expected range [2][3] - The last week's closing low at 6720 corresponds well with earlier projections for Wave-4, reinforcing the reliability of the wave analysis [3] - The potential for complex patterns in 4th waves suggests that the current wave structure may not be complete, indicating further monitoring is necessary [3] Market Projections - The expectation for Wave-5 to reach approximately 7120 hinges on the SPX maintaining a position above 6631, while a close below 6720 would signal caution for bullish positions [4] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of skepticism and continuous evaluation in market predictions, aligning with scientific principles of inquiry [5]

Core Insights - The current state of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire cryptocurrency market is identified as a typical second wave capitulation phase in the ongoing bull market cycle [1][3] - This capitulation phase follows a significant B wave correction, where market sentiment is at a low point, leading investors to abandon positions before a parabolic rise [1][3] Market Analysis - Henrik Zeberg notes that capitulation is an emotional adjustment before the final phase, indicating that this is the most uncomfortable time during a bull market [3] - Bitcoin recently experienced a brief drop to around $114,000, currently trading at approximately $108,000, near its 200-day moving average [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 40, suggesting panic and weakness in the market, but a structural collapse has not yet occurred [3] - Historically, accumulation phases before rebounds often exhibit similar conditions [3] Future Projections - Zeberg anticipates that the next phase, the 3(4)-5 wave, will lead to the most explosive market movements to date, fueled by new liquidity and risk appetite [3] - Ethereum is expected to experience a vertical price increase, potentially reaching $6,000, $7,500, $10,000, or even $12,000, while Bitcoin's price could exceed $160,000 [3] - This phase is described as the "end of everything bubble," preceding a large-scale deflationary collapse [3] - Market sentiment at the peak is expected to emit contrary signals, indicating that euphoria may obscure warning signs [3] Market Cleanup - The current adjustment is seen as a process to cleanse the market, eliminating weak investors and preparing for the final and strongest rebound of the macro cycle [3] - Zeberg emphasizes that the bull market remains strong despite the ongoing adjustments [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market experienced a downward trend in the first three trading days of the week, followed by a strong rebound on Thursday, and ended with a consolidation pattern on Friday, resulting in a weekly bearish candle with a long lower shadow [1] - October's gold market closed with a bullish candle featuring a long upper shadow, indicating a pattern of price increase followed by a pullback throughout the month [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is entering a new phase, with officials expressing concerns about the possibility of rate cuts in December. Key speeches from various Fed officials next week will be crucial for market sentiment [2] - Important economic data releases next week include the ISM and ADP reports, with expectations for the ISM manufacturing PMI to return above the 50 mark for the first time since February 2025 [3] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Events - The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments regarding Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with significant implications for economic interests and presidential powers [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a phase of structural differentiation, with three potential paths for price evolution based on Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracement levels [5][9][12][15] - The first scenario suggests a continuation of the B-wave rebound, requiring the price to hold above the recent low of 3886 to confirm the rebound's validity [9] - The second scenario indicates a potential extension of the A-wave decline if the price breaks below 3886, with key support levels identified at 3846 and 3720 [12] - The third scenario posits a trend reversal if the price breaks above 4381 after holding above 3886, suggesting a new upward trend [15]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping by $3,000 to $107,500, and Ethereum falling over 5% below $3,900 [2][3] - Other cryptocurrencies such as BNB, Solana, and Cardano also saw declines, with many dropping over 4% [3] - A warning from Elliott Wave Theory analyst Jon Glover indicated that Bitcoin may enter a bear market, potentially falling to $70,000 or lower [2][5] Liquidation Data - According to Coinglass, over $401 million in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated within 24 hours, affecting more than 122,000 traders, with 60% being long positions [3][4] - The largest single liquidation occurred in Hyperliquid-ETH-USD, valued at approximately $6.3666 million [3][4] Global Market Impact - Following a historical high, both the Japanese and South Korean stock markets also experienced a sharp decline, with the Nikkei 225 index turning negative after a gain of over 1.5% [2] - The South Korean Composite Index's gains narrowed to 0.2% after previously rising over 2% [2] Shift to Safe-Haven Assets - Amid global trade tensions, investors are shifting towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which has seen a significant price increase [4][5] - Analysts noted that Bitcoin is viewed as a risk asset, contrasting with gold's stability during market uncertainties [5] Bitcoin Market Analysis - Jon Glover's analysis suggests that the recent Bitcoin bull market, which peaked at $126,000, has ended, with a potential drop to the $70,000-$80,000 range expected [5][6] - Historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin typically enters a bear market approximately 18 months after halving events, with the next halving scheduled for April 2024 [6] Regulatory Developments in Japan - The Japanese Financial Services Agency is considering allowing banks to hold and trade cryptocurrencies, marking a significant shift from its previous conservative stance [7][8] - This proposed framework would enable banks to trade digital assets similarly to stocks and bonds, with risk management measures in place to ensure financial stability [7]

几大市场，突然集体跳水！ 今日盘中，加密货币市场大幅下挫，比特币一度跳水3000美元，从11.05万美元跌至10.75万美元；以太坊则跌 超5%，失守3900美元关口；BNB、Solana、艾达币、Hyperliquid等集体跳水。近日，以精确的市场预测而出名 的艾略特波浪理论分析师Jon Glover发出警告称，比特币正在进入熊市，未来可能会跌至7万美元或更低。 Coinglass数据显示，24小时内，加密货币全网合约爆仓超4美元，爆仓人数超过12万人，其中六成为多单爆 仓。 值得注意的是，日本、韩国股市今日盘中创出历史新高后也出现跳水行情。其中，日经225指数一度翻绿，此 前涨幅超过1.5%；韩国综合指数涨幅收窄至0.2%，此前一度大涨超2%。 加密货币跳水 投机属性较强的加密货币市场，今日盘中突然跳水。截至记者发稿时，比特币报10.75万美元，24小时内跌幅 超过3%；以太坊跌超5%报3863美元；BNB、Solana跌超5%，艾达币、狗狗币、Chainlink跌超4%， Hyperliquid、Avalanche、Sui跌超7%。 Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时，加密货币全网合约爆仓4.01 ...

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged to a long-term high of $42.45 due to a weakening dollar [1][3] - Weak U.S. employment data and moderate inflation have paved the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Market Analysis - Silver has reached a 14-year high of $42.45, driven by a softening dollar and recent U.S. economic data [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. have increased at the fastest rate in four years, indicating a deterioration in the labor market [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose to 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July, while core inflation remained stable at 3.1% [3] - These economic indicators have tempered expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut but maintained the outlook for a 25 basis point cut [3] Technical Analysis - According to Elliott Wave Theory, silver may have reached its bullish target in the $42.50 range, which corresponds to a 261.8% Fibonacci extension from a previous rebound [4][6] - The 4-hour Relative Strength Index indicates bearish divergence, suggesting that the bullish momentum since mid-August is waning [6] - The next resistance level for silver is projected at $43.00, while recent support is identified at $41.50 [6] - Further declines could target the range between $40.40 and $40.15 [6]