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新准则下保险股估值重构专题:保险股PCE-ROCE估值体系探析:综合权益视角下的全面价值
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-25 11:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector [2]. Core Insights - The P/EV valuation system is facing challenges in a persistently low interest rate environment, leading to significant adjustments in risk discount rates and investment return assumptions, which have resulted in a decline in NBV and EV growth [5][9]. - The introduction of the PCE-ROCE valuation system aims to provide a more comprehensive reflection of the true value of insurance companies by incorporating comprehensive equity (CE) and return on comprehensive equity (ROCE) [31][43]. - The report identifies that A-share listed insurance companies, particularly China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance, are relatively undervalued according to the PCE-ROCE valuation system [5][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The P/EV valuation system shows signs of "failure" as the valuation levels for A-share listed insurance companies continue to decline, with significant pressure on new business value growth due to macroeconomic factors [9][14]. 2. PCE-ROCE Valuation System Proposal - The PCE-ROCE system introduces comprehensive equity (CE) and ROCE to better reflect the value of insurance companies under new accounting standards [31][43]. - The system aims to address the limitations of the P/EV system by providing a more stable and predictable valuation framework [5][31]. 3. Comparison of Valuation Systems - The PCE-ROCE system is more effective in reflecting the true value of insurance companies in a low interest rate environment compared to the traditional P/EV system [5][31]. - The report highlights that the P/CE ratio provides a better fit and reflects the comprehensive value of insurance companies compared to P/B and P/EV ratios [5][31]. 4. Analysis of Insurance Companies' Policy Profitability - The report establishes a profitability evaluation system for listed insurance companies based on CSM and NBCSM, identifying key performance indicators to assess profitability [5][31]. - The scoring system ranks companies based on their CSM performance, with AIA, PICC, and CPIC scoring the highest [5][31]. 5. Main Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report concludes that several A-share and H-share listed insurance companies are undervalued, suggesting a focus on companies like New China Life, Ping An, AIA, China Life, CPIC, and PICC for potential investment opportunities [5][29].