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中国民航“旺丁不旺财”背后:旅客结构和出行需求都变了
第一财经· 2025-11-14 15:25
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese civil aviation industry is experiencing a "high passenger volume but low profitability" situation, with a historical peak in passenger transport volume in 2024, while the average economy class ticket price has decreased by 12.7% year-on-year [3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2023, domestic passenger transport volume exceeded pre-pandemic levels, but many airlines are still struggling with losses due to a prevalent "price for volume" strategy [3][6]. - Airlines are increasing seat capacity to lower per-seat costs, but this leads to more empty seats and a continuous decline in ticket prices, creating a cycle that hampers profit recovery [6][7]. - The concentration of 65% of capacity in high-density markets with over 800 passengers per day and intense competition among airlines contributes to the industry's challenges [7]. Group 2: Emerging Opportunities - The demand for travel in lower-tier markets is being activated, with a strong growth rate in tourism-related travel, indicating a new growth area for the civil aviation market [8][10]. - The shift in passenger demographics from business travelers to more leisure travelers, particularly younger individuals, suggests a need for airlines to target emerging markets, including underserved second and third-tier cities [10][11]. - The current fleet structure, dominated by larger aircraft, is not well-suited for the growing demand in smaller markets, highlighting the need for more flexible fleet deployment [10][11]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Airlines must move away from a broad-scale expansion strategy and focus on more refined fleet and product operations to adapt to the changing passenger structure and competition from high-speed rail [11]. - The need for appropriate aircraft types in the 100-140 seat market is emphasized, as the current dominance of larger narrow-body aircraft is not aligned with market demands [11].