机构：国海证券 研究员：陈梦竹/张娟娟 度假业务：持续受东南亚地区安全问题影响，收入短期承压：2025Q3度假业务实现营收9 亿元，同比下 降8%。 用户表现：付费用户规模稳步提升，持续深耕下沉市场。2025Q3公司实现平均月付费用户数4770 万人 （yoy+2.8%），截至2025年9 月30 日止12 个月实现年付费用户数2.53 亿（yoy+8.8%），12 个月累计服 务人次增长7.3%至20.2 亿。截至2025 年9 月30 日，居住在中国非一线城市注册用户数超过87%， 2025Q3 微信平台新付费用户中超70%来自中国非一线城市，进一步巩固平台在中国大众市场的地位。 盈利预测和投资评级：公司作为下沉市场OTA 平台龙头，持续受益于国内长短途旅游的需求释放、下 沉市场渗透率提升、国际业务拓展以及线上线下流量深耕下的用户增长，我们调整公司2025-2027年营 收分别为193/219/245 亿元，归母净利润分别为29/32/37 亿元，对应摊薄EPS 为1.3/1.4/1.6 元，对应P/E 为15.7/14.2/12.3 倍；我们给予2026 年同程旅行目标市值602 亿元人民币，对应目标价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks has announced a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to establish a joint venture for its retail operations in China, retaining 40% ownership while Boyu will hold 60% and manage major operational decisions. The plan includes expanding the current 8,000 stores to 20,000, indicating a shift towards lower-tier markets, which may lead to a decline in brand perception and customer base [1] Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Starbucks aims to compete with lower-priced coffee brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi, which have seen rapid growth and market share gains [3][4] - The partnership with Boyu Capital is seen as a move to penetrate deeper into the Chinese market, particularly targeting lower-tier cities [1][21] - Despite the expansion plans, Starbucks faces significant challenges in cost management compared to its competitors, making it difficult to compete on price [9][7] Group 2: Financial Performance - Starbucks China reported a 14% decline in net revenue for the fiscal year 2022, with same-store sales dropping 23% and transaction volume down 20% [6] - In Q4 of fiscal year 2023, same-store sales further declined by 16%, indicating ongoing struggles in the market [6] - The company has initiated a price reduction strategy for the first time in 25 years, but this has not significantly improved its competitive position against lower-cost rivals [6][22] Group 3: Product Innovation and Consumer Preferences - Starbucks has lagged behind competitors like Luckin in product innovation, launching only 78 new products in its most prolific year compared to Luckin's over 100 [10][12] - The lack of popular new offerings has contributed to a decline in consumer interest, as younger consumers prioritize social value and innovative products [13][14] - The traditional approach of Starbucks contrasts sharply with the data-driven, rapid iteration model employed by Luckin, which has successfully created popular products that resonate with consumers [12][19] Group 4: Operational Challenges - Starbucks' operational costs are significantly higher than those of its competitors, with raw material costs at 26% and total costs exceeding 26 yuan per cup, compared to competitors' costs around 9-10 yuan [8][7] - The company's attempt to introduce smaller, more cost-effective store formats has not yielded the expected results, as operational costs remain high and consumer engagement has declined [21][22] - The challenge lies in balancing the brand's premium image with the need to appeal to price-sensitive consumers in lower-tier markets [19][21]

在现今日益碎片化的市场， 谁能吸引消费者，谁就能赢得市场！ 品牌的市场地位与渗透 率（即消费群体数量）高度相关。Wo rl d p a n e l消费者指数（在中国隶属于CTR）在增加镇 级 市 场 的 覆 盖 后 ， 最 新 数 据 显 示 ， 截 至 2025 年 10 月 3 日 的 52 周 内 ， 2 8 家 快 速 消 费 品 （FMCG）公司拥有上亿中国城镇购买家庭 。 与 上 一 年 相 比 ， 领 先 的 这 28 家 头 部 企 业 ， 总 体 增 加 了 213 万 城 镇 购 买 家 庭 ， 平 均 增 速 为 0 . 8%。其中， 维达集团 实现高速增长，增幅达10.4%。此外，增速较为迅速的还有 娃哈 哈集团 、 农夫山泉 、 好丽友 及 统一集团 。 | | | 覆盖上亿中国城市家庭的快速消费品企业 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (一至六线城镇) | | | | | | 消费者(百万家户) | | | 溶液逐(% | | 商 | 类别 | 截至2024年 10月4日的一年 10月3日的一年 | 截至20 ...

据介绍，Amazon Bazaar是亚马逊应用程序内的数字市场，拥有独立的搜索引擎、购物车和结账流程，旨在为顾客带来充满乐趣、活力四射且便捷的购物 体验。 据悉，订单通常会在6 至14个工作日内送达，如果顾客对商品不满意，可在15天内免费退货。 近期，亚马逊上线全新的Amazon Bazaar应用，并同步扩展至14个新市场，包括中国香港、中国台湾、菲律宾、科威特、卡塔尔、巴林、阿曼、秘鲁、厄 瓜多尔、阿根廷、哥斯达黎加、多米尼加、牙买加和尼日利亚。 从Haul到全新的Amazon Bazaar 2024年11月，亚马逊在美国推出Amazon Haul。 据悉，Haul最初是在美国主站里做的一个"低价专区"，以跨境配送的低客单价商品为主，面向对价格更敏感、对时效要求不高的用户群体。之后，Haul的 测试又扩展到英国、德国、法国、意大利、西班牙、日本、澳大利亚等地。 不过，因关税等多重因素的共同影响，Haul项目的表现并不如预期。根据今年3月Omnisend针对美国市场进行的相关调研显示，76%的受访者表示他们在 过去一年没有在Haul购物。 业内人士表示，作为主站的一个板块，Haul既无法开展独立的爆炸式营销， ...

Core Insights - Recent actions by foreign brands like Starbucks and Burger King indicate a strategic shift rather than a retreat from the Chinese market, as they adapt to changing consumer dynamics and market conditions [1][27] Group 1: Foreign Brands' Strategies - Starbucks sold 60% of its China stake to Boyu Capital for $4 billion, while Burger King divested 83% of its equity for $2.5 billion, reflecting a trend of foreign brands restructuring their investments in China [1][27] - The historical success of foreign brands in China was driven by high demand, favorable tax policies, and a lack of local competition, which has since changed [6][7][27] - Starbucks has expanded its store count from 8,000 to 12,000 in China, with 35% of new stores located in lower-tier markets, showcasing a shift towards localization and market penetration [9][11] Group 2: Changing Consumer Landscape - The demographic shift in China, with a declining birth rate and the rise of younger consumers (post-95 and post-00 generations), has altered consumption patterns, making brand loyalty less significant [13][15] - Younger consumers prioritize taste, health, and value for money over brand prestige, leading to a decline in traditional brand appeal [15][19] - Competitors like Luckin Coffee and KFC have successfully adapted to local tastes and preferences, with KFC's introduction of localized menu items like "Sichuan Hot Pot Fried Chicken" achieving significant sales [17][23] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The coffee market in China has become segmented, with low-cost brands capturing the budget-conscious segment while premium brands focus on emotional value [19][27] - Local brands leverage digitalization and efficient service models, allowing them to outperform traditional foreign brands in terms of customer engagement and operational efficiency [21][23] - Starbucks is now adopting strategies such as health-focused product lines and partnerships to enhance customer loyalty and adapt to local market demands [25][27]

Core Insights - BOSS Zhipin's Q3 2025 financial report highlights significant growth in the blue-collar job market, particularly in lower-tier cities and the manufacturing sector [1][2] Revenue Growth - In Q3, BOSS Zhipin reported revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, primarily driven by online recruitment services for corporate clients [1] - The revenue from blue-collar jobs reached a historical high as a percentage of total income, indicating a robust demand in this segment [2] Blue-Collar Job Market Trends - The manufacturing sector shows the highest demand for blue-collar workers, with revenue growth leading among sub-industries for five consecutive quarters [2] - There is a notable shift towards technical positions in the blue-collar job market, with increasing demand for roles such as assembly engineers and mechanical engineers in high-end and smart manufacturing [4] Downstream Market Dynamics - Revenue from third-tier cities and below is on the rise, driven by industrial migration and local service sector growth [5] - The demand for local services in lower-tier cities, such as housekeeping and retail, is increasing, aligning well with the efficient nature of online recruitment platforms [5] Trust Mechanisms in Recruitment - The blue-collar recruitment market faces challenges such as information opacity and distrust between job seekers and employers [6] - BOSS Zhipin's "Conch Plan" aims to enhance the authenticity of job postings and build trust, which is crucial for standing out in a competitive market [7] - The success of the "Conch Preferred" initiative demonstrates the importance of trust in improving recruitment efficiency and employer branding [7]

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 在被颠覆的恐惧中开启自救。 作者丨 陈梓洁 编辑丨 曹宾玲 来源丨表外表里 在武汉，几栋不起眼的红色矮楼静卧于汉江湾，国内知名 音乐公司海葵音乐 便是在那里 ，创造出 6亿的年产值。 短短 5年 时 间， 海葵音乐就 从 29名员工 壮大为 500人 的 音乐集团， 投资的音乐工作室超 170家 。 一千公里外的成都，另一位头部玩家阔景音乐，被视为 "凤头"引入音乐 文创园 。 今年前 8个月， 园内 规上企业营收 同比 增长 47.7% ， 是全国 音乐产业增长最快的区域之一。 这两家成功的音乐公司，股权架构里都有一个相同的名字 ——腾讯音乐（TME）。 通过层层投资， TME与大量音乐公司形成联盟，也是"财富共同体"。2025Q3，其营收 增长 20.6% 至 84.6亿元，调整后净利润飙升 27 % ， 实现连续 8个季度的双位数高增长。 而 TME，仅仅是音乐产业蝶变的缩影。 随着短视频崛起、音乐进入市场化时代，行业加速洗牌，在线音乐平台吞下了更多份额，传统唱片公 司也在被颠覆的恐 ...

近年来，随着城镇化持续推进、城乡居民消费水平提升，以及理性消费理念的普及，下沉市场展现出前 所未有的活力。数据显示，2024年餐饮下沉市场增速超过8%，成为拉动行业增长的重要力量。在这片 潜力巨大的蓝海中，鱼你在一起凭借清晰的定位与灵活的模式快速发展，截至2024年7月，其全球加盟 门店数量已突破2500家。那么，鱼你在一起的加盟策略究竟有哪些亮点？本文带你一探究竟。 品牌自2017年成立以来，围绕"快餐化"定位，初期聚焦一线城市核心商圈，主攻白领及上班族客群，门 店多落地于商业中心与办公区域。凭借高性价比、营养均衡的产品，鱼你在一起迅速打开市场，在一线 城市积累起品牌声誉。 2021年"千城万店"计划启动后，品牌针对不同市场逐步形成差异化打法，国内下沉与海外拓展同步推 进。在一二线城市，鱼你在一起大力推广外卖mini店型，以线上运营为核心，控制租金成本；在县域及 乡镇市场，则主打具有烟火气的市井风格门店，以亲民价格和贴近本地氛围的设计吸引客群；在海外， 则通过适度口味调整融入当地饮食偏好。 随着消费理念趋于理性，只有像鱼你在一起这样，真正理解不同市场真实需求，并以创新策略应对变化 的品牌，才能在竞争中持续领 ...

Core Viewpoint - BOSS Zhipin's Q3 2025 financial report indicates a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, amidst a recovering job market driven by macroeconomic factors and AI technology integration [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall recruitment market is recovering, with blue-collar jobs and lower-tier markets emerging as new growth engines, while AI technology is enhancing efficiency for both users and companies [3][4]. - The national employment situation is improving, with the urban survey unemployment rate dropping to 5.1% in October, signaling a positive trend in job demand [4]. - BOSS Zhipin reported a 25% year-on-year increase in new job postings in Q3, with a notable shift where the number of active users on the employer side surpassed that of job seekers for the first time in three years, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [4][6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Blue-collar job performance is particularly strong, with manufacturing leading revenue growth for five consecutive quarters, and significant activity in transportation, logistics, and service industries [6]. - The income share of blue-collar jobs reached a historical high of 38% in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 16%, outpacing white-collar sectors [6]. - Government initiatives aimed at stabilizing employment have led to increased demand for service sector jobs, with notable growth in positions such as kitchen staff and general laborers [6][7]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency - BOSS Zhipin's sales and marketing expenses decreased by 24.6% year-on-year to 394 million yuan, while the average monthly active users reached 63.8 million, reflecting a healthy expansion in user base [8]. - The company’s R&D investment in Q3 amounted to 408 million yuan, surpassing sales expenses, indicating a focus on AI and technology for product development and safety governance [8][9]. - The net profit for Q3 was 775 million yuan, with operating cash flow of 1.174 billion yuan, showcasing strong profitability and risk resilience [9]. Group 4: AI Integration - AI technology is transforming the recruitment process, with BOSS Zhipin launching an AI job assistant that enhances user interaction and improves job matching efficiency [11][12]. - The AI tools are designed to assist HR in efficiently screening candidates and automating responses to common inquiries, significantly improving recruitment speed and quality [11][12]. - The application of AI in internal management has led to reduced development cycles and improved service quality, while also enhancing safety measures against recruitment fraud [12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The recruitment industry is entering a new cycle driven by policy support, consumer recovery, and industrial upgrades, with AI technology providing unprecedented efficiency [13]. - BOSS Zhipin's financial results serve as a roadmap for industry transformation, highlighting the potential for growth in blue-collar and lower-tier markets, as well as the shift from information matching to intelligent decision-making in recruitment [13]. - The ongoing evolution of AI models and regional economic revitalization is expected to create new structural opportunities in the recruitment sector [13].

Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant expansion, with brands that possess comprehensive capabilities expected to dominate and maintain leadership positions in their respective price segments. Higher price tiers will see a more diverse range of brands catering to specific consumer needs, while second and third-tier brands are anticipated to stabilize after rapid expansion and closures, with local long-tail brands following suit [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Mixue is expanding its presence in the domestic market and actively pursuing international growth, positioning itself in the affordable market segment with a strong brand identity. As of mid-2025, Mixue is projected to have over 53,000 stores, including 4,733 overseas locations across 13 countries as of September [1]. - Luckin Coffee is rapidly expanding nationwide, with a focus on franchise support policies introduced over three consecutive months. By the end of August 2025, Luckin Coffee is expected to have signed over 8,200 stores, placing it among the leaders in China's freshly brewed coffee market [2]. - Fulu Family, a leader in the craft beer chain market, is expected to have around 1,200 stores by the end of August 2025, indicating promising market penetration and growth potential in the fresh beer sector [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company is enhancing its self-supply ratio, solidifying its core supply chain advantages. The central factory in Henan, along with four dedicated raw material processing locations, enables efficient supply. The company provides 100% self-produced core beverage ingredients to franchisees, with some self-produced packaging reducing costs by approximately 50% compared to external sourcing [2]. - The integration of digital logistics and automated warehousing is improving logistical efficiency, supporting a global network of stores [2]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The main brand is expected to monopolize the sinking market while expanding internationally. Luckin Coffee's rapid store openings will leverage scale advantages, and Fulu Family will serve as a critical validation brand for category expansion and operational capability replication, benefiting from the industry's increasing penetration and growth in the sinking market [2]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.9 billion, 6.5 billion, and 7.7 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with current stock prices reflecting a PE ratio of 24, 22, and 19 times respectively, leading to an "overweight" rating [2].