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克而瑞:11月京沪深二手房成交仍处在下行周期 短期内“以价换量”趋势延续
智通财经网· 2025-11-20 11:47
另一方面,对于沪深而言,新房市场中千万元豪宅产品入市对二手房高端客群分流作用愈发明显,呈现出典型替代效应。 据CRIC监测数据,沪深2025年10月总价800万元以上房源成交套数占比环比均呈现出持平或回落。此外,杭州2025年10月 总价500万-1000万元高端房源占比环比持增阶段性回升,但仍不及去年同期。 目前来看,随着新房供地"提质缩量"叠加四代宅等高得房率新规产品入市,使得一二手房客群差异愈发显著,高端客群集 中新房,而极致刚需客群被挤压至二手房市场。 智通财经APP获悉,克而瑞地产研究表示,预判后市,11月京沪深二手房成交仍处在下行周期,短期内"以价换量"趋势延 续,中高改小区能否放量主要取决于新增挂牌量和新房市场优质产品入市量影响;而刚需盘目前仍然以价格为导向;目前 随着二手房市场逐步过渡为买方市场,购房者在置业时往往会综合考虑小区区位、配套、价格等因素,选取性价比较高的 小区,交易周期将进一步拉长。 01.京沪深200万元以下房源成交占比同环比齐增 对新房刚需项目分流愈发显著 从二手房成交总价段来看,主要呈现出以下特征: 一方面,低价房源占比持增,对新房市场分流作用愈发显著,极致刚需客群基本都被 ...
二手结构|10月京沪深200万元以下房源成交占比持增
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-11-20 09:07
Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is experiencing a slowdown in transaction momentum, with a notable shift in buyer preferences towards lower-priced properties and specific property types [2][13]. Group 1: Transaction Structure Changes - The proportion of transactions for properties priced below 2 million yuan is increasing, indicating a significant diversion of first-time homebuyers to the second-hand market. For instance, in Shanghai, the share of transactions for properties under 2 million yuan reached 48.72% in October 2025, up by 2.16 percentage points month-on-month and 8.93 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - In contrast, the high-end segment of the new housing market is drawing buyers away from the second-hand market, particularly for properties priced above 8 million yuan in Shanghai and Shenzhen, where transaction shares have either stabilized or declined [3][4]. Group 2: Property Size Preferences - The majority of transactions in the second-hand market are still concentrated in smaller units, particularly those under 70 square meters, which accounted for over 30% of transactions in October 2025. In Shanghai, this segment is seeing an upward trend [7][8]. - There is also a growing interest in compact units (90-100 square meters) and larger comfortable units (140-160 square meters), which cater to buyers looking for more spacious living arrangements [8][13]. Group 3: Regional Transaction Trends - The transaction share in suburban areas of Shanghai is declining, while core urban areas in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are also seeing a drop in transaction shares. Notably, Shenzhen's main areas are experiencing an increase in transaction concentration, with districts like Luohu and Longgang showing significant month-on-month growth [11][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to continue its downward trend in November, with a persistent "price-for-volume" strategy. The ability of mid-to-high-end properties to gain traction will largely depend on the volume of new listings and the quality of new housing products entering the market [14].
凯悦酒店在中国为何总是“慢一拍”?
3 6 Ke· 2025-11-19 11:16
当其他国际酒店集团凹着腰深耕中国时,凯悦酒店集团,似乎总是散发出些许"慵懒"的感觉。 数据显示,凯悦酒店在中国区的表现,已经连续很长时间处于OCC和RevPAR有增长但是ADR下滑的状态了。 今年第三季度,凯悦全球全系统可比酒店的RevPAR为146.24美元,同比增长0.3个百分点;OCC达72.8%,同比增长0.4个百分点;ADR录得200.9美元,同 比减少0.2个百分点。 我们很难去判断,这是凯悦酒店追求"以价换量",还是产品结构调整的结果。但结合凯悦酒店在中国的品牌布局情况,其规模始终没有跑起来,大家都在 发力的中高端序列,也未形成规模优势。 中国区的表现属于中规中矩。 面对本土酒店集团的崛起,以及中国酒店市场的变化,总是"慢一拍"的凯悦,又该如何找到新的破局之路? 长期存在"以价换量"? | | | | | 蓝签 9月 30 日的三个月 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | RevPAR | 与2024年相比 | △有 | | ADR | 与 2024年假比 | | | | 可比滇床飲量 (2 ...
三季报利润承压,吉祥航空还有看头吗?
市值风云· 2025-11-19 10:09
Core Viewpoint - The aviation transportation sector has shown a strong recovery, with private airlines like Juneyao Airlines outperforming state-owned carriers, despite a general trend of "volume increase and price decrease" in the market for 2024 [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The aviation market in 2024 is characterized by a significant increase in passenger transport volume, reaching historical highs during the peak summer travel season, while airlines have lowered prices to compete with high-speed rail and adapt to market changes [3][5]. - The overall civil aviation industry saw a 6.0% year-on-year increase in passenger volume, with international passenger transport growing by 28.5% [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - Juneyao Airlines reported operating revenue of 17.48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, remaining stable year-on-year, but total profit and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13.1% and 14.3%, respectively [5]. - In Q3 2025, the company generated revenue of 6.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 25.3% [7]. - The decline in profits is attributed to non-operating costs, particularly due to engine maintenance affecting domestic capacity and increasing related expenses, which is seen as a temporary operational adjustment [8]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Juneyao Airlines has shifted its strategic focus towards international markets, with a slight decrease in domestic passenger volume by 6.2% to 11.34 million, while international passenger volume surged by 45.9% to 2.10 million in the first half of 2025 [10][11]. - The company optimized its international route network, operating 12,370 international flights and opening new destinations such as Kobe and Kuala Lumpur [11]. - The comprehensive passenger load factor improved to 85.2%, with domestic and international load factors rising to 88.1% and 78.4%, respectively, although revenue per passenger kilometer declined from 0.47 yuan to 0.45 yuan, reflecting the market trend of "price for volume" [11].
金岩高新:高增长背后的集中度陷阱与以价换量困局
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-19 02:51
据港交所11月17日披露,金岩高新通过港交所主板上市聆讯,国元国际、民银资本为联席保荐人。 招股书显示,金岩高新是中国少数专营煤系高岭土的企业之一,拥有从采矿、研发、加工到生产、销售 的全价值链整合能力。这种垂直整合的业务模式,成为公司在激烈市场竞争中脱颖而出的关键。 根据弗若斯特沙利文报告,按2024年中国煤系煅烧高岭土公司的收入计算,金岩高新以5.4%的市场份 额排名第五。更为亮眼的是,在精铸用莫来石材料这一细分领域,公司已成为行业领头羊——按2024年 收入计算,其市场份额高达19.1%,稳居中国第一。 然而,亮眼业绩背后,融资成本的急剧攀升值得高度警惕。2024年,公司融资成本高达370.9万元,是 2022年103.9万元的3.5倍以上。更令人担忧的是,在2025年前五个月,融资成本已达到319.2万元,较 2024年同期的63.8万元增长超过400%。这一数据的异常变动,反映出公司可能为支撑业务扩张而大幅 增加了有息负债,在当前利率环境下面临较大的财务压力。 稀缺资源掌控奠定发展根基增长动能强劲与财务结构隐忧并存 金岩高新的产品结构主要分为两大板块:精铸用莫来石材料和耐火用莫来石材料,这些都是精铸 ...
新股解读|金岩高新:高增长背后的集中度陷阱与以价换量困局
智通财经网· 2025-11-19 02:47
根据弗若斯特沙利文报告,按2024年中国煤系煅烧高岭土公司的收入计算,金岩高新以5.4%的市场份 额排名第五。更为亮眼的是,在精铸用莫来石材料这一细分领域,公司已成为行业领头羊——按2024年 收入计算,其市场份额高达19.1%,稳居中国第一。 稀缺资源掌控奠定发展根基 增长动能强劲与财务结构隐忧并存 金岩高新的产品结构主要分为两大板块:精铸用莫来石材料和耐火用莫来石材料,这些都是精铸型壳和 耐火材料的重要基础材料。同时,公司还销售生焦生粉,由客户进行进一步加工。 产能数据印证了公司在细分领域的专注与深化。从2022年至2024年,公司精铸用莫来石材料产量分别为 117.9千吨、114.5千吨、105.6千吨;而耐火用莫来石材料则从2022年的5.2千吨快速增长至2024年的25.7 千吨,显示出公司在产品结构调整与市场拓展方面的积极成效。特别是在2025年前五个月,精铸用莫来 石材料产量达到84.8千吨,已接近2024年全年产量的80%,表明公司主营业务正加速发展。 智通财经APP认为,金岩高科的竞争力,很大程度上建立在对其稀缺矿产资源的掌控之上。2021年10 月,公司与朔里矿业订立资产转让协议,成功获得 ...
前10月新房卖了6.9万亿元,这些城市房价仍在涨⋯⋯
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-16 03:47
58安居客研究院院长张波向《每日经济新闻》记者(以下简称"每经记者")书面分析指出,一线城市改善型需求稳定,高库存中小城市的房价下行压力依 然存在,库存去化周期超20个月的城市,受房企"以价换量"冲刺业绩影响,新房价格环比依然下行。总体来看,一线核心板块企稳、二线内部分化、三四 线整体承压的态势并未发生变化。 撰文|包晶晶 编辑|廖丹 魏文艺 11月14日上午,国家统计局公布《2025年10月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》和《2025年1—10月份全国房地产市场基本情况》。 数据显示,1—10月,全国房地产开发投资73563亿元,同比下降14.7%;新建商品房销售面积71982万平方米,同比下降6.8%;新建商品房销售额69017亿 元,下降9.6%。 价格方面,10月70城中各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比和同比均下降。不过值得注意的是,10月共有上海、杭州、合肥、沈阳、乌鲁木齐和韶关6个城市 新房价格环比上涨,上海、杭州、合肥、乌鲁木齐4个城市新房价格环比、同比均上涨;成都、杭州二手房价格同比跌幅最小,表现出一定韧性。 张波判断,11月和12月,随着政策托底力度加大、房企年底冲刺,市场预计还将呈现 ...
中国民航“旺丁不旺财”背后:旅客结构和出行需求都变了
第一财经· 2025-11-14 15:25
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese civil aviation industry is experiencing a "high passenger volume but low profitability" situation, with a historical peak in passenger transport volume in 2024, while the average economy class ticket price has decreased by 12.7% year-on-year [3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2023, domestic passenger transport volume exceeded pre-pandemic levels, but many airlines are still struggling with losses due to a prevalent "price for volume" strategy [3][6]. - Airlines are increasing seat capacity to lower per-seat costs, but this leads to more empty seats and a continuous decline in ticket prices, creating a cycle that hampers profit recovery [6][7]. - The concentration of 65% of capacity in high-density markets with over 800 passengers per day and intense competition among airlines contributes to the industry's challenges [7]. Group 2: Emerging Opportunities - The demand for travel in lower-tier markets is being activated, with a strong growth rate in tourism-related travel, indicating a new growth area for the civil aviation market [8][10]. - The shift in passenger demographics from business travelers to more leisure travelers, particularly younger individuals, suggests a need for airlines to target emerging markets, including underserved second and third-tier cities [10][11]. - The current fleet structure, dominated by larger aircraft, is not well-suited for the growing demand in smaller markets, highlighting the need for more flexible fleet deployment [10][11]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Airlines must move away from a broad-scale expansion strategy and focus on more refined fleet and product operations to adapt to the changing passenger structure and competition from high-speed rail [11]. - The need for appropriate aircraft types in the 100-140 seat market is emphasized, as the current dominance of larger narrow-body aircraft is not aligned with market demands [11].
张波:上海、北京、杭州、成都等核心城市二手房市场有望量价双稳
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-11-14 06:03
张波指出,今年11-12月份,房企为了完成年度业绩目标,将加大"以价换量"力度,叠加地方政府可能 推出的补贴相关政策,预计新房在成交价格下行的同时会带来成交量上升,其中核心24城增量将表现明 显。 11月14日,国家统计局发布《2025年10月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》。根据国家统计 局数据,2025年10月份,全国70个大中城市中,各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比和同比均下降。 核心24城新房成交增量将表现明显 10月份,一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%,降幅与上月相同。其中,上海上涨0.3%,北 京、广州和深圳分别下降0.1%、0.8%和0.7%。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降0.8%,降幅比 上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中,上海上涨5.7%,北京、广州和深圳分别下降2.0%、4.2%和2.6%。 值得关注的是,一线城市改善需求依然稳定。"从统计局数据来看 ,90-144平方米新建商品住宅价格环 比稳定性最优,结合58安居客研究院监测线上 90-120平方米户型找房占比29%、120-140平方米占比 21.1% ,可以看出改善型需求成为成交核心支撑。"58安居客研究院院长张波 ...
58安居客研究院:一线城市改善需求依然稳定
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 03:30
张波说,结合58安居客研究院线上监测数据来看:一线城市90-120m²户型找房占比29%,120-140m²户 型找房占比21.1%,可以看出改善型需求成为成交核心支撑。 张波表示,总体来看,一线核心板块企稳、二线内部分化、三四线整体承压的态势并未发生变化。11- 12月,随着政策托底力度加大、房企年底冲刺,市场预计还将呈现"量稳价弱、分化持续"的特征;房企 为完成年度业绩目标,将加大"以价换量"力度,叠加地方政府可能推出的补贴相关政策,预计新房在成 交价格下行的同时会带来成交量上升,其中核心24城增量将表现明显,更多三四线城市则维持基本成 交;从二手房来看,预计11-12月成交规模与10月基本持平,以上海、北京、杭州、成都等核心城市为 代表,有望实现量价双稳,房价跌幅将明显收窄;多数非核心二线城市需依赖公积金及购房补贴等相关 政策拉动成交,但政策刺激的边际效应逐步减弱,产业与人口红利才是长期动能。 58安居客研究院院长张波14日表示,从国家统计局发布的数据来看,一线城市改善需求依然稳定,其 中,90-144m²新建商品住宅价格环比稳定性最优。 (文章来源:新华财经) 他还说,高库存中小城市房价下行压力依然存 ...