新凯恩斯经济学
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卢荻:世界资本主义已经知道,中国当不了他的“小伙伴”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-01 02:27
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the economic challenges faced by Western countries are not primarily due to China's economic model, but rather stem from their own financialization trends and lack of productive investment. China's rise has had a generally positive impact on the global economy, despite accusations of "overcapacity" and "neocolonialism" directed at it [1][4][24]. Group 1: Trade War and Economic Relations - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is driven by systemic demand shortages and changes in trade structures, with the U.S. blaming China for job losses and trade imbalances [5][10]. - Prior to 2008, the U.S. viewed the "China produces, America consumes" relationship positively, but this perspective shifted post-financial crisis as demand shortages became evident [6][7]. - The rise of China's capital and technology-intensive products has led to direct competition with developed countries, undermining their previously enjoyed monopolistic advantages [10][11]. Group 2: Investment and Economic Growth - The article highlights a global trend of insufficient investment, with developed countries experiencing a decline in investment rates since the onset of globalization, while China has maintained high investment rates [17][18]. - The lack of investment growth in the capitalist world is identified as a key reason for the current demand shortages, rather than China's high investment levels [18][22]. Group 3: China's Global Economic Impact - China's economic rise has contributed positively to global development space, counteracting the stagnation in investment growth seen in other countries [24]. - The article emphasizes that China's comprehensive industrial system does not necessarily crowd out the industrialization of other developing countries, as it has shifted labor-intensive industries to nations like Vietnam and Cambodia [28][29]. Group 4: Future Economic Order - The future global economic landscape may evolve into two main camps: one led by the U.S. and the other by China, with countries maintaining varying degrees of relationships with both [2][39]. - The article suggests that the relationship between China and developing countries is more equitable compared to the historical dynamics between developed and developing nations, as China does not impose the same exploitative conditions [30][31].