产能过剩论
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卢荻:世界资本主义已经知道,中国当不了他的“小伙伴”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-01 02:27
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the economic challenges faced by Western countries are not primarily due to China's economic model, but rather stem from their own financialization trends and lack of productive investment. China's rise has had a generally positive impact on the global economy, despite accusations of "overcapacity" and "neocolonialism" directed at it [1][4][24]. Group 1: Trade War and Economic Relations - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is driven by systemic demand shortages and changes in trade structures, with the U.S. blaming China for job losses and trade imbalances [5][10]. - Prior to 2008, the U.S. viewed the "China produces, America consumes" relationship positively, but this perspective shifted post-financial crisis as demand shortages became evident [6][7]. - The rise of China's capital and technology-intensive products has led to direct competition with developed countries, undermining their previously enjoyed monopolistic advantages [10][11]. Group 2: Investment and Economic Growth - The article highlights a global trend of insufficient investment, with developed countries experiencing a decline in investment rates since the onset of globalization, while China has maintained high investment rates [17][18]. - The lack of investment growth in the capitalist world is identified as a key reason for the current demand shortages, rather than China's high investment levels [18][22]. Group 3: China's Global Economic Impact - China's economic rise has contributed positively to global development space, counteracting the stagnation in investment growth seen in other countries [24]. - The article emphasizes that China's comprehensive industrial system does not necessarily crowd out the industrialization of other developing countries, as it has shifted labor-intensive industries to nations like Vietnam and Cambodia [28][29]. Group 4: Future Economic Order - The future global economic landscape may evolve into two main camps: one led by the U.S. and the other by China, with countries maintaining varying degrees of relationships with both [2][39]. - The article suggests that the relationship between China and developing countries is more equitable compared to the historical dynamics between developed and developing nations, as China does not impose the same exploitative conditions [30][31].
G7内部已达成共识,德外长很狂,妄称是过剩产品,冯德莱恩火速访华
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 04:33
Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers are focusing on "overcapacity products" from China, indicating a strategic concern over China's growing competitiveness in the renewable energy sector [1][3][4] - The G7's criticism stems from a perceived threat to their market share, as China's advancements in technology and complete supply chains have enhanced the cost-effectiveness of its renewable products [3][4] - Germany's call for action against "overcapacity products" appears to be a tactic to shift attention from its own economic challenges, particularly in light of potential U.S. tariffs on EU imports [4][6] Group 2 - Ursula von der Leyen's upcoming visit to China is seen as a potential opportunity to ease tensions, despite previous negative remarks about China's production capacity [6][7] - The trade relationship between China and the EU is significant, with China being the EU's largest trading partner, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation in sectors like renewable energy and digital technology [6][9] - The EU's recent protectionist measures could ultimately harm both European and Chinese businesses, emphasizing the need for a cooperative approach rather than a confrontational one [6][9] Group 3 - The success of von der Leyen's visit hinges on the EU's willingness to abandon its "China threat" narrative and recognize the importance of collaboration for mutual benefit [7][9] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic challenges necessitate a stable partnership between China and the EU, which could be undermined by continued adversarial posturing [9]