最近数据显示，2025年前11个月，我国对外贸易顺差已达1.08万亿美元（约合人民币7.59万亿元），创 历史新高。就中欧贸易关系而言，2024年，欧盟对华货物贸易逆差为3045亿欧元（约合人民币2.5万亿 元）；2024年10月至2025年10月间，欧盟对华货物贸易逆差累计达3100亿美元，可见中国对欧贸易顺差 占中国对外贸易顺差约1/3。基于此，欧盟相当不满。12月16日，法国总统马克龙在英国《金融时报》 发文，呼吁要"重新平衡欧中（贸易）关系"。如何降低欧盟对华逆差，已成为中欧经贸关系重要议题。 本文就如何看待及解决中欧贸易所谓"失衡"问题做些分析。 关于欧盟对华贸易逆差的一些错误看法 不少欧洲人认为，中欧贸易失衡的主要根源在中国一方，理由如下： 第一，产能过剩论。据此理论，欧洲认为中国市场生产了远超中国市场所需产品，大量本不应生产出来 的商品只有被迫转销欧洲等国外市场，造成中欧贸易失衡。然而，古往今来，一国所产商品超过本国市 场需求屡见不鲜。全球化时代，一国所产商品也本不完全只针对本国消费市场（如在巴伐利亚生产的宝 马汽车并不只供给德国本土），为何中国所生产的全球性产品被斥之为产能过剩？欧美举出如下理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the economic challenges faced by Western countries are not primarily due to China's economic model, but rather stem from their own financialization trends and lack of productive investment. China's rise has had a generally positive impact on the global economy, despite accusations of "overcapacity" and "neocolonialism" directed at it [1][4][24]. Group 1: Trade War and Economic Relations - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is driven by systemic demand shortages and changes in trade structures, with the U.S. blaming China for job losses and trade imbalances [5][10]. - Prior to 2008, the U.S. viewed the "China produces, America consumes" relationship positively, but this perspective shifted post-financial crisis as demand shortages became evident [6][7]. - The rise of China's capital and technology-intensive products has led to direct competition with developed countries, undermining their previously enjoyed monopolistic advantages [10][11]. Group 2: Investment and Economic Growth - The article highlights a global trend of insufficient investment, with developed countries experiencing a decline in investment rates since the onset of globalization, while China has maintained high investment rates [17][18]. - The lack of investment growth in the capitalist world is identified as a key reason for the current demand shortages, rather than China's high investment levels [18][22]. Group 3: China's Global Economic Impact - China's economic rise has contributed positively to global development space, counteracting the stagnation in investment growth seen in other countries [24]. - The article emphasizes that China's comprehensive industrial system does not necessarily crowd out the industrialization of other developing countries, as it has shifted labor-intensive industries to nations like Vietnam and Cambodia [28][29]. Group 4: Future Economic Order - The future global economic landscape may evolve into two main camps: one led by the U.S. and the other by China, with countries maintaining varying degrees of relationships with both [2][39]. - The article suggests that the relationship between China and developing countries is more equitable compared to the historical dynamics between developed and developing nations, as China does not impose the same exploitative conditions [30][31].

Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers are focusing on "overcapacity products" from China, indicating a strategic concern over China's growing competitiveness in the renewable energy sector [1][3][4] - The G7's criticism stems from a perceived threat to their market share, as China's advancements in technology and complete supply chains have enhanced the cost-effectiveness of its renewable products [3][4] - Germany's call for action against "overcapacity products" appears to be a tactic to shift attention from its own economic challenges, particularly in light of potential U.S. tariffs on EU imports [4][6] Group 2 - Ursula von der Leyen's upcoming visit to China is seen as a potential opportunity to ease tensions, despite previous negative remarks about China's production capacity [6][7] - The trade relationship between China and the EU is significant, with China being the EU's largest trading partner, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation in sectors like renewable energy and digital technology [6][9] - The EU's recent protectionist measures could ultimately harm both European and Chinese businesses, emphasizing the need for a cooperative approach rather than a confrontational one [6][9] Group 3 - The success of von der Leyen's visit hinges on the EU's willingness to abandon its "China threat" narrative and recognize the importance of collaboration for mutual benefit [7][9] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic challenges necessitate a stable partnership between China and the EU, which could be undermined by continued adversarial posturing [9]