新型复合肥研发

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芭田股份(002170):首次覆盖报告点:复合肥主业经营稳健,优质磷矿产能释放助力业绩高增
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-05-01 02:48
Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Recommended" rating for investment [4]. Core Views - The company has a solid competitive advantage in the compound fertilizer industry, supported by high-quality phosphate resources, which is expected to drive significant performance growth [4]. - The compound fertilizer industry is undergoing a reshuffle, with leading companies strengthening their market positions [29]. - The high demand for phosphate rock continues, and the company's production capacity is set to increase, enhancing revenue and profitability [51]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 33.13 billion CNY, 2025E: 49.41 billion CNY, 2026E: 54.00 billion CNY, 2027E: 59.26 billion CNY, with growth rates of 2.15%, 49.14%, 9.19%, and 9.84% respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2024A: 4.09 billion CNY, 2025E: 11.57 billion CNY, 2026E: 14.08 billion CNY, 2027E: 16.45 billion CNY, with growth rates of 57.67%, 182.78%, 21.73%, and 16.83% respectively [2]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.42 CNY in 2024, increasing to 1.20 CNY in 2025, 1.46 CNY in 2026, and 1.71 CNY in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the compound fertilizer sector and has established a comprehensive phosphate chemical industry chain [6]. - It is the first listed compound fertilizer company in China, with a production capacity of 1.91 million tons per year, ranking among the top in the domestic market [45]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a significant number of patents and innovative technologies that enhance its product offerings [45][46]. Industry Dynamics - The compound fertilizer industry is experiencing a consolidation phase, with a focus on eliminating outdated production capacity and enhancing market concentration [29]. - The demand for new types of fertilizers is expected to grow, driven by the upgrading of agricultural products and the need for more efficient fertilizer use [36][40]. - The phosphate rock market remains tight, with the company planning to expand its production capacity significantly, which will support its revenue growth [51][57].