Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [9]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with total revenue for the first half of 2025 reaching 9.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.951 billion yuan, up 28.98% year-on-year [4][6]. - The strategic shift towards high-margin new compound fertilizers has led to a notable increase in gross profit margins, with revenue from high-margin products growing by 26.83% to 2.850 billion yuan, and gross margin reaching 24.48%, an increase of 2.58 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - The company is constructing a fully integrated production capacity chain from phosphate mining to fertilizer production, which is expected to enhance cost control and operational efficiency [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.98%, and a net profit of 0.515 billion yuan, up 49.61% year-on-year [5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 4.730 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.97% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 10.96% to 0.437 billion yuan [4]. - The company anticipates net profits of 1.664 billion yuan, 1.863 billion yuan, and 2.067 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.6%, 11.9%, and 10.9% [9]. Production Capacity and Cost Control - The company has established a complete production capacity loop from phosphate mining to sulfuric acid and ammonia synthesis, which is expected to reduce costs significantly [7]. - The company has a phosphate resource reserve of over 270 million tons, with 90 million tons already in production, which helps mitigate raw material price fluctuations [6][7]. - New projects in the East and Northwest regions are expected to enhance production capacity and improve supply chain efficiency [8]. Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D investment significantly, with R&D expenses reaching 124 million yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 1.32% of revenue, a year-on-year increase of 158.14% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The integrated advantages of the industrial chain continue to manifest, leading to a steady improvement in the performance of the domestic phosphate fertilizer leader, Xin Yang Feng (000902) [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Xin Yang Feng achieved an operating income of 9.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 951 million yuan, up 28.98%; and net cash flow reached 1.004 billion yuan [1][2] - Total assets amounted to 18.348 billion yuan, a growth of 0.64% compared to the end of the previous year; net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 5.58% to 11.166 billion yuan [2] Quarterly Analysis - In Q1 2025, Xin Yang Feng's operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders were 4.668 billion yuan and 515 million yuan, respectively; in Q2, these figures were 4.730 billion yuan and 437 million yuan [3] - Q1 saw significant growth with operating income and net profit increasing by 39.98% and 49.61% year-on-year, while Q2 experienced a revenue decline of 6.97% but a net profit increase of 10.96% [3] Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, sales revenue for phosphate fertilizers and new compound fertilizers grew by 39.34% and 26.83%, respectively, with gross margins increasing by 4.27 and 2.58 percentage points [3] - Conventional compound fertilizer sales revenue decreased by 6.66%, but gross margin increased by 0.14 percentage points [3] Strategic Development - Xin Yang Feng has established a competitive advantage through integrated industrial chain development, with 12 production bases and a total capacity of 10.28 million tons/year for high-concentration phosphate fertilizers [6][7] - The company has enhanced its self-sufficiency in key raw materials, which strengthens its ability to withstand fluctuations in upstream material prices [7] Market Positioning - Xin Yang Feng is the largest compound fertilizer enterprise in China, with a unique position as the only large compound fertilizer company with potassium fertilizer import rights, contributing to its resilience against price fluctuations [7] - The company has focused on high-quality development and stable operations, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 5.87% in compound fertilizer sales from 2015 to 2024 [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that delayed sales in the compound fertilizer sector will be concentrated in the third quarter, as the industry is a necessity [8] - The price gap for domestic and international monoammonium phosphate is significant, with most exports expected to be realized in the third quarter [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 9.398 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63%, with a net profit of 951 million yuan, up 28.98% year-on-year [3]. - The performance of the main products is robust, with revenue from phosphate fertilizers increasing by 39.34% year-on-year, while conventional compound fertilizers saw a decline of 6.66%. New-type compound fertilizers grew by 26.83% [3]. - The gross profit margins for phosphate fertilizers, conventional compound fertilizers, and new-type compound fertilizers increased by 4.27, 0.14, and 2.58 percentage points respectively, leading to an overall gross margin increase of 1.28 percentage points to 17.34% [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading producer of phosphate compound fertilizers in China, with a production capacity of 10.28 million tons per year for various high-concentration phosphate fertilizers and 900,000 tons per year for phosphate rock as of the end of 2024 [7]. Product Performance - New-type fertilizers have shown rapid growth, with sales increasing from 548,500 tons in 2018 to 1.38 million tons in 2024, a compound annual growth rate of 16.63%. The proportion of new-type fertilizers in the overall compound fertilizer sales rose from 16.56% in 2018 to 31.67% in 2024 [4]. Capacity Expansion - The company is optimizing its production capacity across the country, including a new project in Aksu, Xinjiang, with a capacity of 350,000 tons per year for new-type fertilizers, and a planned investment in a 1 million tons per year specialized fertilizer project in Huai'an, Anhui [4]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.47 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan, and 1.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.15 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.49 yuan [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.11 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported steady growth in revenue and profit, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 9.398 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 951 million CNY, up 28.98% year-on-year [2]. - The company continues to deepen its integrated supply chain strategy, which is expected to enhance profitability and operational efficiency [9]. - The revenue from phosphate fertilizers has steadily increased, with the proportion of new fertilizers rising, contributing to improved gross margins [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 18.21%, an increase of 2.48 percentage points year-on-year, with specific segments showing varied performance: phosphate fertilizers at 19.81%, conventional compound fertilizers at 12.56%, and new compound fertilizers at 24.48% [9]. - The company has been expanding its production capacity for new fertilizers, including a 350,000-ton/year project in Xinjiang and a 1 million-ton/year project in Bengbu [9]. - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a projected revenue growth rate of 9.7% in 2025, with net profit expected to grow by 21.7% [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully increased its market share in new fertilizer products, with sales growing from 548,500 tons in 2018 to 1,380,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.63% [9]. - The strategic focus on product innovation and market expansion is expected to continue driving revenue and profit growth, reinforcing the company's competitive position in the industry [9].

| 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | ┣证指数 3640 0.16 4.8 1.86 | | 深证综指 2225 -0.05 7.24 2.28 | 2025 年 08 月 08 日 中 树国际 (688981) 点评：Q2 营收和毛利率皆超指引. Q3 軍回稳健增长 事件: 1) 公司港股公告 2025 年二季报, 实现营业收入 22.09 亿美元, YoY+16.2%, QoQ-1.7%,连续第四个季度超 20 亿美元,且高于指引 (QoQ-4%~-6%); 归母净利润 1.32 亿美元, YoY-19.5%; 毛利率 20.4% (QoQ-2.1pct)，其表现优于一季度指引区间（18%-20%）。公司 25H1 合计实现销售收入 44.6 亿美元, YoY+22%; 毛利率为 21.6%, YoY+7.6pct。 调整盈利预测,维持"买入"评级。根据公司 25Q3 指引及股本变化,我 们调整公司 2025-2027 年的归母净利润预测为 50.93/64.08/72.21 亿元 （原 53.29/67.94/76.66 亿）, 对应 2025-2027 年 A 股股价 PE 为 ...

Group 1: Production Capacity and Regulations - The company currently produces approximately 10,000 tons of phosphate rock daily, which translates to an annualized production of over 3 million tons. However, the safety production license permits an annual output of only 2 million tons, limiting monthly production to 20% of the annual capacity [1] - The safety production license restricts the annual mining volume to 2 million tons, which is a regulatory compliance measure [1] Group 2: Future Growth and Strategic Focus - The company is an integrated phosphate chemical enterprise, focusing on upstream phosphate rock mining and downstream production of phosphate fertilizers, new compound fertilizers, and new energy materials [2] - With the recent acquisition of a safety production license for the Xiaogaozai phosphate mine, the company anticipates an increase in phosphate rock production capacity, which is expected to enhance profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Recommended" rating for investment [4]. Core Views - The company has a solid competitive advantage in the compound fertilizer industry, supported by high-quality phosphate resources, which is expected to drive significant performance growth [4]. - The compound fertilizer industry is undergoing a reshuffle, with leading companies strengthening their market positions [29]. - The high demand for phosphate rock continues, and the company's production capacity is set to increase, enhancing revenue and profitability [51]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 33.13 billion CNY, 2025E: 49.41 billion CNY, 2026E: 54.00 billion CNY, 2027E: 59.26 billion CNY, with growth rates of 2.15%, 49.14%, 9.19%, and 9.84% respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2024A: 4.09 billion CNY, 2025E: 11.57 billion CNY, 2026E: 14.08 billion CNY, 2027E: 16.45 billion CNY, with growth rates of 57.67%, 182.78%, 21.73%, and 16.83% respectively [2]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.42 CNY in 2024, increasing to 1.20 CNY in 2025, 1.46 CNY in 2026, and 1.71 CNY in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the compound fertilizer sector and has established a comprehensive phosphate chemical industry chain [6]. - It is the first listed compound fertilizer company in China, with a production capacity of 1.91 million tons per year, ranking among the top in the domestic market [45]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a significant number of patents and innovative technologies that enhance its product offerings [45][46]. Industry Dynamics - The compound fertilizer industry is experiencing a consolidation phase, with a focus on eliminating outdated production capacity and enhancing market concentration [29]. - The demand for new types of fertilizers is expected to grow, driven by the upgrading of agricultural products and the need for more efficient fertilizer use [36][40]. - The phosphate rock market remains tight, with the company planning to expand its production capacity significantly, which will support its revenue growth [51][57].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has a solid performance in the compound fertilizer sector, with significant growth driven by the release of high-quality phosphate resources [4]. - The company is well-positioned in the market due to its integrated phosphate chemical industry chain and strong brand recognition [4]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profit due to the expansion of phosphate production capacity and the increasing demand for new types of compound fertilizers [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to reach 33.13 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.15%, and is expected to increase to 49.41 billion CNY by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 49.14% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.09 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant increase of 57.67%, and is expected to rise to 11.57 billion CNY in 2025, marking a growth of 182.78% [2]. - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.42 CNY in 2024, increasing to 1.20 CNY in 2025, with corresponding PE ratios of 23.50 and 8.31 [2]. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the compound fertilizer industry and has established a comprehensive phosphate chemical industry chain [6]. - It is the first listed compound fertilizer company in China, with a production capacity of 1.91 million tons per year, ranking among the top in the domestic market [45]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a significant number of patents and innovative technologies that enhance its competitive edge [45]. Industry Analysis - The compound fertilizer industry is undergoing a consolidation phase, with leading companies expected to strengthen their market positions as weaker players exit [29]. - The demand for compound fertilizers is anticipated to grow due to the increasing recognition of their benefits over traditional fertilizers [36]. - The phosphate market remains robust, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to continue, benefiting companies with integrated phosphate resources [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 16.38, reflecting a 4% upside based on a 13x PE for 2025 [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.58 billion, RMB 1.82 billion, and RMB 2.08 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.26, RMB 1.45, and RMB 1.66 [2][9]. - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of RMB 15.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.32 billion, up 8.99% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company is actively enhancing its market competitiveness by reserving phosphate resources and establishing joint ventures to increase phosphate self-sufficiency [12]. Financial Summary - The company's financial performance shows a projected revenue growth from RMB 15.10 billion in 2023 to RMB 19.77 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.1% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from RMB 1.21 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.08 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 14.7% [3][8]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 3 per 10 shares for the fiscal year 2024, amounting to approximately RMB 376.42 million, which represents 28.63% of the annual net profit [10][11].

点击注册小程序 截至2024年年末，公司具有各类高浓度磷复肥产能1028万吨/年，磷矿石产能90万吨/年，磷酸铁产能5万 吨/年，配套生产硫酸412万吨/年、合成氨30万吨/年。在上游磷矿石资源方面，公司在建有180万吨/年产 能；在精细化工产品方面，公司10万吨/年精制磷酸、2万吨/年白炭黑、3万吨/年无水氟化氢项目已完成大 部分的建设工作。2024年12月30日，公司发布公告表示与宜昌市夷陵区人民政府、宜昌高新技术产业开发 区管理委员会签署磷系新材料循环经济产业园项目合作协议。该项目总投资约96亿元，其中一期计划投资 52亿元，将建设150万吨/年选矿、80万吨/年硫酸、30万吨/年磷酸、15万吨/年食品级磷酸、8万吨/年磷酸 二氢钾、5万吨/年阻燃剂、5万吨/年多聚磷酸、8万吨/年工业级磷酸一铵、20万吨/年粉状磷酸一铵产能。 风险提示： 产品及原材料价格波动，下游需求不及预期，产能建设风险，环保及安全生产风险。 发布日期： 2025-04-18 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请 ...