Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ready-to-drink tea market is experiencing remarkable growth, with HSBC highlighting Guming and Mixue as standout brands due to their scalability and competitiveness, with a more favorable outlook for Guming's growth potential [1][20]. Market Overview - The market size of China's ready-to-drink tea is projected to reach RMB 211.5 billion by the end of 2023, significantly surpassing the ready-to-drink coffee market at RMB 151.5 billion [3]. - The market is highly fragmented, with approximately 660,000 tea shops and 4,000 to 5,000 brands, resulting in a low survival rate [3]. Company Analysis Mixue - Mixue is positioned as a low-cost market leader, with some products priced as low as RMB 7 [7]. - It has over 46,000 stores in China and nearly 5,000 overseas, making it the largest fast-food chain by store count globally [7]. - Despite its strong market position, its current valuation reflects its advantages, leading to a neutral rating. The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from 2024 to 2027 is 17.4%, with a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of approximately 1.67, indicating limited attractiveness [8][9]. Guming - Guming targets the mid-range market, focusing on fresh fruit tea, and has established a self-operated cold storage supply chain, creating a strong competitive barrier [10][15]. - It has a higher single-store profitability, with a payback period of 16 months, compared to Mixue's longer payback period [12][20]. - Guming's average annual gross merchandise volume (GMV) per store is RMB 2.4 million, significantly higher than Mixue's RMB 1.4 million [16]. - The average GMV per transaction for Guming is RMB 27.9, while Mixue's is RMB 11.6, reflecting their different market positioning [19]. - Guming's expected net profit CAGR from 2024 to 2027 is 24.4%, with a PEG ratio of approximately 1.03, suggesting better growth potential and investment value, leading to a "buy" rating [15]. Competitive Landscape - Both companies have ambitious expansion plans, with Mixue aiming for 100,000 stores in China and Guming targeting 30,000 to 40,000 stores [20]. - HSBC's end-game model indicates that Guming may have a higher net profit growth potential (34%) post-2027 compared to Mixue (26%) despite the difference in store numbers [20][21]. Investment Considerations - The report provides a clear analytical framework for investors, indicating that while Mixue wins in scale, its high valuation limits upside potential, whereas Guming shows superior growth potential and investment value through its product and supply chain strategies [20].

蜜雪冰城暗盘的总市值一度逼近千亿港元。 2月28日，即将在3月3日登陆港股市场的"雪王"——蜜雪冰城正在暗盘交易中。富途APP显示，蜜雪冰城暗盘 一度 大涨超30%。 不过，截至证券时报记者发稿，蜜雪冰城股价涨幅已回落至23%左右。 此前蜜雪冰城在认购期间，创下了港股史上最大规模的认购纪录，达到1.84万亿港元，认购倍数更是超过5324倍。 蜜雪冰城此次现象级IPO认购背后，可谓占尽了"天时地利人和"。 从"天时"来看，港股市场回暖，尤其是在科技股带动下，港股里的中国资产迎来一轮"重估"。不少散户都冲着这一轮赚钱效应涌向新股市场。如消费类 个股布鲁可上市首日暴涨85%、毛戈平上涨76.5%，强化了投资者对"中签即赚"的预期。 从"地利"来看，蜜雪冰城过去几年在全国乃至海外攻城掠地，品牌影响力逐步显现。此次蜜雪冰城股价高达每股202.50港元，最小申购金额高达20454港 元，也助推了本次认购规模的扩大。 从"人和"来看，一方面，本次蜜雪冰城的基石投资者阵容"豪华"，红杉中国、高瓴集团、美团龙珠等国内顶尖资本齐聚；另一方面，香港各大券商平台 普遍都提供了100倍的杠杆打新，更有一些券商提供了200倍的超高杠杆， ...