Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to enter a bottoming phase by 2026, with reduced negative impact on economic growth due to policy optimization and enhanced financing support [1][2]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - The real estate market is undergoing positive changes as the transition between old and new models continues [1]. - It is anticipated that major cities will optimize existing policies by 2026, potentially eliminating restrictive home purchase regulations [1]. - The scale of special bond issuance for real estate is projected to reach between 200 billion to 300 billion yuan, facilitating the de-inventory of 20 million to 30 million square meters of commercial housing [1]. Group 2: Financial and Policy Support - Financially, the central bank may moderately lower mortgage and housing provident fund loan rates, while fiscal policies could introduce home purchase interest subsidies [1][2]. - The financing coordination mechanism will continue to be strengthened, ensuring that financial institutions meet reasonable financing needs, including those of private real estate companies [1][2]. Group 3: Sales and Investment Trends - Real estate sales growth is expected to show a pattern of lower performance initially, followed by improvement, with a projected year-on-year decline in sales area of about 6% [2]. - The investment decline in the real estate sector is expected to narrow to around 10% for the year, indicating a reduction in the intensity of industry adjustments [2]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The negative impact of the real estate market on nominal GDP is projected to decrease significantly, with a forecasted contribution rate decline of about 15% and a reduction in GDP growth drag of approximately 0.6 percentage points compared to 2025 [2]. Group 5: Recommendations for Policy Adjustment - It is suggested to lower the cost of first-time home purchases and broaden purchasing thresholds, including a potential reduction of mortgage rates by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points [2]. - Accelerating the coverage of special loans for real estate companies and ensuring liquidity support for those maintaining normal operations is also recommended [2].