｜2026年1月9日星期五｜ NO.1 郁亮因到龄退休辞去万科董事及执行副总裁职务 1月8日，万科A公告称，因到龄退休，郁亮于当8日向公司董事会提交了书面辞职报告，申请辞去公司 董事、执行副总裁职务。辞去上述职务后，郁亮将不再担任公司任何职务。万科表示，根据相关规定， 郁亮的辞职报告自送达公司董事会之日起生效。郁亮已确认与公司董事会无任何意见分歧，亦无其他事 项需提请公司股东、债权人、深交所或港交所关注，其辞职不会影响公司董事会的正常运作和公司的日 常经营。 NO.4 富力地产截至去年11月底逾期债务总额387亿元 1月8日，广州富力地产公告称，截至2025年11月30日，公司合并报表范围内存在逾期金额累计达到387 亿元的有息债务。债务逾期主要是由于公司信用类债券、银行贷款、信托、融资租赁公司等、非银行金 融机构贷款、其他有息债务到期未还所致。目前公司正在积极与相关债权人沟通，关注债权人的关切 点，并制定和落实解决方案。 点评：逾期债务规模持续扩大，折射出当前出险房企在销售低迷、融资收紧、重组受阻三重压力下的困 境。公司需加快推进债务重组与资产处置，同时依托行业纾困政策，统筹现金流与保交楼，避免风险进 一步 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量增仓 43067 手，成交量相比上 一交易日略微增量，成交量 697016 手。日内增仓下跌，最低 3097，最高 3135， 收于 3104 元/吨，下跌 23 元/吨，跌幅 0.74%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3300 元/吨，相 比上一交易日维稳。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 库存端：库存连续去化，截止 12 月 31 日当周，总库存周环比下降 12.22 万吨至 422.03 万吨，连续 9 周去化，其中社会库存 282.66 万吨，周 环比下降 11.53 万吨，连续十二周下降，创近三年低位，钢厂库存 139.37 万吨，微降 0.69 万吨，近三年低位，提供较强支撑，累库拐点预计在春节 前 1-2 周出现，厂库由增转降，社库持续下降，显示流通缓解库存压力减轻。 ■宏观面：中央经济会议灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持 流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机 ...

近日，财政部、国家税务总局联合发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确自2026年1月1日起，个人（不含个体工商户中的一般纳税 人）销售购买不足2年的住房，按3%征收率全额缴纳增值税；销售购买2年以上（含2年）的住房，免征增值税。2026年1月1日前已完成交易但尚 未申报纳税的，符合条件可按新政执行。 此次政策有三大核心调整：一是统一全国执行标准，打破此前北上广深与其他地区的政策差异，取消一线城市满2年非普通住房差额征税规定；二 是将不满2年住房销售的增值税征收率从5%降至3%，降幅达40%；三是取消普通住房与非普通住房的划分，仅以持有年限作为征税依据，简化政 策执行口径。 税费减负效果直观可见 以上海一套售价100万元的未满2年住房为例，旧政策下需缴纳5万元增值税，新政后仅需3万元，房东直接减负2万元；若为500万元的次新房，增 值税可从23.81万元降至14.56万元，节省9.25万元。 政策出台背景是当前房地产市场的调整态势。近期二手房价格同比跌幅连续扩大，热点城市领跌，市场预期疲弱，新房交易转弱，"卖旧买新"的 置换需求减少，一二手房市场出现分化。此次调整精准回应市场痛点，广东省城规院住房政策研 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent policy change where the value-added tax (VAT) rate for housing sold within two years has been reduced from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026. This aims to lower transaction costs and stimulate the second-hand housing market [5][6] - The report notes a significant decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities during the fourth quarter of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 24.9% in Beijing, 19.4% in Shanghai, and 30.8% in Shenzhen for October-November [7][11][14] - The adjustment in VAT is expected to stabilize market expectations and promote overall recovery in the real estate sector, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The VAT rate for housing sold within two years is reduced to 3%, while sales of properties held for two years or more remain exempt from VAT. This change is projected to save approximately 9.25 million yuan in VAT for a property priced at 5 million yuan [5][6] Market Trends - The report indicates a notable drop in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 11.0%, 18.5%, and 28.7% for the first nine months of 2025, followed by significant declines in October and November [7][11][14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and the ability to cater to improving customer demands, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land. It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms [8]

专家解读北京楼市新政及效果 20251229 Q&A 北京最新房地产政策出台后，市场表现如何？具体有哪些变化？ 北京于 12 月 24 日出台了新的购房优惠政策，包括限购放松、首付比例调整以 及房贷利率认定等措施。政策实施后，北京房地产市场在周末期间（12 月 25 日至 28 日）出现了显著反应。东部区域如顺义和通州的新房项目待看量较前 一周（12 月 15 日至 21 日）平均上涨 30%，四天内整体提升 39%。成交量 方面，上述区域的成交提升约 13%。 西部区域（西四环至西六环之间）的新 房项目待看量在周末两天内提升 32%，四天内整体提升 27%至 28%。成交量 增长约 21%，其中 130 平米以上改善型客户的成交活跃度较之前一周和一个 北京总体平均租金收益率在 2.1%至 2.5%之间，通州和海淀表现较好， 朝阳、东城和西城下跌较大。长期持有资产的业主开始挂牌出售，表明 这些资产的收益率已经低于 30%至 40%。 预计 2026 年北京房地产市场仍面临压力，缺乏长期人口引进计划。政 府希望通过少花钱、根本性解决问题，可能通过放宽落户政策吸引购房 者，稳定市场，预计 2026 年中旬以后逐步 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.28 2025-12-29 第 52 周成交回升，北京放松限购加力稳定市场 投资要点： 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 行 上周地产成交回升。12 月 24 日北京进一步放宽购房条件，我们预计后续会有更多 城市跟进，从而稳定年底市场，为明年开局打好基础。 报 告 证 券 研 究 业 报 告 跟 [table_Authors] 踪 [Table_Summary] 上周大中城市成交回升。12 月 24 日，北京《关于进一步优化调整 本市房地产相关政策的通知》，放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，同时支 持多子女家庭住房需求。受此影响，上周房地产成交继续回升。我 们判断后续会有更多城市跟进，有助于稳定年底市场，为明年开局 打好基础。 上周大中城市新房成交环比继续回升：2025 年第 52 周 30 大中城市 新房成交面积为 300 万平，环比前一周 32.1%，同比 2024 年-22.7%。 其中一线城市销售面积 54 万平，环比前一周 3.6%，同比 2024 年 -38%。二线城市销售面积 192 万平，环比前一周 50.99%，同比 2024 年- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the year-on-year net signed area for second-hand homes, with a decrease of 30% compared to the previous year, which is an expansion of 15 percentage points from November [4]. - In contrast, the year-on-year decline in the net signed area for new homes has narrowed to 26%, improving by 9 percentage points from November [4]. - The central economic work conference has shifted its focus from "greater efforts to stabilize the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," suggesting potential support for urban renewal and housing fund reforms [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the difference between net rental yields and mortgage rates as a key observation for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [6]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - The year-on-year decline in new home net signed area has narrowed, with the average area signed in sample cities showing improvement compared to the past four years [10][11]. - The report indicates that the new home market is experiencing a more favorable supply-demand environment compared to the second-hand market [6]. Second-Hand Home Market - The year-on-year decline in second-hand home net signed area has expanded, with the average area signed in sample cities remaining at a relatively high level compared to the last five years [15][18]. - The report notes that the average viewing numbers for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities have decreased year-on-year, indicating a potential slowdown in market activity [43]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to November has seen a year-on-year decline of 14%, with the average transaction price showing a narrower increase of 7% [22]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of unsold land parcels, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [33]. Market Liquidity - The report assesses liquidity indicators, noting a tightening in macro-level liquidity in December, which may impact market conditions [47]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased slightly, indicating a cautious market sentiment [48]. Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates an increase in the unsold inventory of new homes, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening compared to October [33]. - The report also highlights that the de-stocking cycles for first and second-tier cities have increased, suggesting a potential slowdown in sales [33].

New Housing Market - New housing sales area in 47 cities reached 5.566 million square meters, marking a weekly high since July, with a week-on-week increase of 28.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%[5] - The increase in new housing sales is attributed to year-end sales push by developers and the introduction of quality projects in key cities[2][5] - The policy adjustments in Beijing, including lowering the social security and tax requirements for non-residents, are expected to boost the new housing market[10][12] Second-Hand Housing Market - Second-hand housing transaction volume slightly decreased by 1.6% week-on-week and saw a year-on-year decline of 29.6%[7] - The decline in second-hand housing transactions is primarily due to the crowding-out effect from the active new housing market[7][12] - The recent policy changes in Beijing have led to an increase in second-hand housing transactions post-implementation[12] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected declines in housing prices, increased debt risks for real estate companies, and macroeconomic downturns exceeding expectations[3][13] - The current real estate market issues are seen as structural, with a shift in demand from investment to consumption, and a need to adjust public expectations regarding housing prices[12]

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 北京新房成交大幅反弹 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）政策跟踪 12 月 24 日，北京四部门联合发文，调降非京籍及多孩家庭购房门槛，标志着一线城市核心区限购政策进 一步边际松动。内容主要聚焦两方面：一是放宽非京籍准入，将五环内购房社保/个税年限由"3 年"降至"2 年"，五环外由"2 年"降至"1 年"；二是支持多孩家庭，明确二孩及以上家庭可在五环内多购一套住房（京 籍上限增至 3 套，非京籍增至 2 套）。此次调整旨在通过降低刚需入市门槛及打开改善性需求空间，切实落实 中央经济工作会议关于稳定房地产市场的精神。 政策定向扩容需求，成交放量系年末翘尾与情绪共振。本次政策精准锚定非京籍刚需及多孩改善群体，预 计将有效扩大潜在购房需求基数。从高频数据看，本周北京新房成交环比激增 79%，需理性看待的是，由于 新政于 24 日才正式生效（仅覆盖统计周期 19-25 日的尾部），本周成交放量更多归因于房企年末冲量的季节性 因素，政策短期内主要体现为预期的改善与 ...

梧桐府项目售楼处。董红艳/摄 本报记者 董红艳 北京报道 北京楼市政策持续温和释放。临近年末，北京公布了新一轮的楼市新政。本次政策内容包括降低社保年 限要求、支持多孩家庭多购一套、不再区分首套二套商贷利率、降低公积金贷款首付比例、优化营商环 境等。 对于新政，业内多方分析认为，本次政策直接扩大了购房群体规模，有利于降低购买二套房家庭的购房 成本；同时，有利于进一步简化流程，提升房地产市场投资效能。同时，本次北京新政具有示范意义， 其他一线城市或将持续跟进。有分析人士坦言，预计本次政策落地将带动市场活跃度出现阶段性好转。 至于市场的即时反馈，有中介人士表示，其所在的朝阳某大区十余家门店，在12月24日新政出台当晚， 二手房签约量明显提振。12月25日，在走访市场过程中，《华夏时报》记者了解到，新政发布后首日， 售楼处的到访客户尚未有明显的增加。多个相关人员表示，本周末销售状况或得到更明显的提振。 沐春墅项目售楼处。董红艳/摄 楼市政策渐进式推进 12月24日，北京市住房和城乡建设委员会、北京市发展和改革委员会、中国人民银行北京市分行、北京 住房公积金管理中心四部门发布《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知 ...