请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-08-26 期 上海楼市新政出炉！复刻北京做法，放开外环限购限制 观点分享： 8 月 25 日周一，上海市住建委等六部门发布《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通 知》，涉及住房限购、公积金、住房信贷、住房税收等 6 项调整，自周二起施行。此次新政 主要亮点包括：1.符合条件的家庭，外环外购房不限套数，非沪籍需要至少连续 1 年社保；2. 成年单身人士按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策，单身也可以购买 2 套住房；3.提高个人住房 公积金贷款额度，公积金可支付首付款，支持"又提又贷"；4.商贷利率不再区分首套和二 套；5.非沪籍人士首套住房免收房产税，第二套房享受人均 60 平方米的免税面积。从短期看， 该举措将直接有利于释放上海购房需求，尤其是外环外区域库存压力大的楼盘（库存占比 70%，消化周期超 20 个月），可能带动成交量回升。"8.18"会议提出"采取有力措施巩固 房地产市场止跌回稳态势"。同时，同为一线城市的北京在 8 月 8 日也发布了稳定楼市的新 政，优化了限购政策、提升了公积金支 ...

上海市昨天出台楼市新政，涉及住房限购、住房公积金等多项政策调整。新政今天起施行。专家表示，此举有望进一步降低购房门槛，促进房地产市场平稳 健康发展。 按照最新的政策规定，上海本市户籍居民家庭、在本市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满1年及以上的非本市户籍居民家庭，在外环外购买住房不限套数， 包括新建商品住房和二手住房。成年单身人士按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长 严跃进：在当前中介市场，包括房企里面引起了比较大的关注。因为客观上来讲确实促进了市场需求的积极释放。 根据中指研究院监测数据，截至目前，今年上海新建商品住宅成交2.97万套，其中外环外成交超1.8万套，占比超60%。二手房方面，今年1到7月成交约12.7 万套，其中外环外成交约6.5万套，占比约51%，新房、二手房外环外均为成交主力。 业内人士表示，上海外环外产业布局多，首套刚需和改善型需求较为集中。此次政策调整将更好释放购买力，激活上海市外环外的交易热度，更好支持该区 域职工的购房和就业。 清华大学房地产研究中心主任 吴璟：此次对外环以外地区限购政策的放松，能够为促进和巩固房地产市场的止跌回稳提供很直接的支持，有效地响应了国 ...

8月25日午间，上海市住建委、房管局等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》（以下简称《通知》），涉及调减住房限购、优化住 房公积金、优化个人住房信贷及完善个人住房房产税等多项措施。 《通知》明确，自8月26日起，符合条件居民家庭在上海外环外购房不限套数，成年单身人士按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策。同时，提高个人住房公积金 贷款额度，支持提取住房公积金支付购房首付款，支持住房公积金"又提又贷"。 图片来源："上海住房城乡建设管理"微信公众号 上海外环外购房不限套数 业内专家当日在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，上海此次政策积极有力、市场反馈积极，说明各地正采取有力措施，巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态 势。 《通知》明确优化个人住房信贷政策。银行业金融机构根据上海市市场利率定价自律机制要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定价机制安 排方面不再区分首套住房和二套住房，合理确定每笔商业性个人住房贷款的具体利率水平。 "取消首套房和二套及以上住房的利率差异，能够降低改善群体以及资产配置需求的还贷压力。"宋红卫指出，根据调研，刚需项目95%以上都需要银行按揭 贷款，多套房产家庭中的高端项目对于银 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, specifically recommending China Merchants Shekou's issuance of 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes [2]. Core Insights - The real estate sector index increased by 3.9% in the 33rd week, ranking 6th among 31 primary industry sectors [8]. - New home transactions in 20 monitored cities decreased by 21% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions in 11 cities saw a slight decline of 2% year-on-year [21][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of effective policies and broad fiscal measures to support the market, with a focus on urban village renovations and inventory management [29]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of 1,198.27 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,148.68 billion yuan [2]. Sales Performance - In the 33rd week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 20.0 million square meters, reflecting a 2% decrease from the previous week and a 21% decrease year-on-year [19]. - The total transaction area for new homes in the first seven months of the year was 63.8 million square meters, down 8% year-on-year [21]. Financing Activities - Most bond issuances in the week were from local state-owned enterprises, with China Merchants Shekou and Poly Real Estate issuing the largest amounts [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product moats, stable rental income from quality commercial real estate, and the stock brokerage business in the existing housing market. Key companies to watch include Greentown China, China Resources Land, Swire Properties, China Resources Mixc Life, and Beike-W [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, particularly favoring quality state-owned and local state-owned developers [8][45]. Core Insights - The new housing transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 1.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 15.5%, which is worse than the previous week's decline of 12.3% [1][15]. - The cumulative transaction volume of new homes in Beijing for the year so far is 3.25 million square meters, down 5.4% year-on-year, slightly better than the previous week's decline of 5.6% [2][18]. - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell to 7.35 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 66.4% [4][33]. - The ratio of inventory to sales for commercial housing in major cities increased to 121.5, up from 98.7 a year ago [3][27]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The new housing transaction volume in 30 major cities was 1.23 million square meters, down 15.5% year-on-year and down 4.9% month-on-month [1][15]. - The year-on-year changes for first, second, and third-tier cities were -26.8%, -12.1%, and -4.9% respectively [1][15]. Cumulative Transactions in Major Cities - Beijing's cumulative transaction volume for new homes is 3.25 million square meters, down 5.4% year-on-year [2][18]. - Shanghai's cumulative volume is 6.71 million square meters, down 1.5% year-on-year [2][18]. - Guangzhou's cumulative volume is 4.51 million square meters, up 12.4% year-on-year [2][18]. - Shenzhen's cumulative volume is 1.81 million square meters, up 6.3% year-on-year [2][18]. Land Transactions - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities was 7.35 million square meters, down 66.4% year-on-year and down 66.8% month-on-month [4][33]. - First-tier cities saw a 52.0% year-on-year decline in land transaction volume [4][33]. Policy Support Measures - Various regions have introduced supportive measures for the real estate market, including adjustments to housing fund withdrawal policies [5][40]. - The government is expected to continue implementing strong measures to stabilize the real estate market [8][45]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose 5.3% last week, outperforming the broader Hang Seng Index by 3.6 percentage points [7][43]. - The report highlights specific stocks to watch, including China Resources Land (1109 HK) and Yuexiu Property (123 HK) [9][46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Beijing real estate market remains stable following the new policy announcement, with an increase in inquiries and viewings for properties outside the Fifth Ring Road [1][2] - The new policy allows eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, which is expected to stimulate demand and accelerate the absorption of inventory in that area [1][3] - Data from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development indicates that the number of second-hand residential contracts signed in August reached 5,574, a year-on-year decrease of 3.78%, but an increase of 11.55% compared to the first 14 days of July [2] Group 2 - The analysis from the China Index Academy suggests that the new policy is likely to release pent-up demand, particularly for families looking to upgrade their housing by allowing them to purchase properties in the inner city without selling their outer city properties first [3] - The policy is seen as beneficial for families looking to invest in retirement or vacation homes, as well as for those needing to diversify their real estate assets [3] - The overall market dynamics indicate that properties outside the Fifth Ring Road have become the main area for new home transactions, with over 80% of new residential sales occurring in that region from January to July [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $22.15 [1][5][29] Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with the company expected to see a 12% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, reaching 26.3 billion RMB [5] - The adjusted net profit is projected to decline by 33% year-on-year to 1.79 billion RMB in Q2 2025, primarily due to the overall slowdown in the real estate sector [5][10] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to improve its operating profit margin sequentially, driven by enhanced efficiency in stores and agents, as well as the continued advantages in its home decoration business [5][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 102.59 billion RMB, 115.78 billion RMB, and 128.57 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10.8%, 12.5%, and 14.1% from previous estimates [4][25][27] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is revised to 7.02 billion RMB, down 14.6% from earlier forecasts, with further adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [25][27] Business Segment Performance - The company anticipates a 14% year-on-year growth in its home decoration business in Q2 2025, with a potential for breakeven in quarterly earnings due to increased order volumes and cost efficiencies [8][9] - The real estate transaction services are expected to show mixed results, with existing home transaction services projected to decline by 3%, while new home transaction services are expected to grow by 13% [5][10] Market Conditions - The report highlights a weakening in the real estate market, with inventory pressures and a prolonged de-stocking cycle affecting sales [6][14] - Recent policy changes in Beijing aimed at easing purchase restrictions are expected to temporarily boost transaction activity, particularly in the outer districts [7][23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustment in Beijing's real estate market aims to promote stable and healthy development while better meeting residents' housing improvement needs and effectively utilizing market mechanisms [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The most notable change allows residents to purchase an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, provided they meet certain conditions [1][2] - The policy reflects a targeted approach to real estate regulation, differentiating between areas inside and outside the Fifth Ring Road to facilitate market entry for capable and willing families [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current statistics indicate that 81.4% of new residential properties and approximately 50% of second-hand homes are located outside the Fifth Ring Road, highlighting the need for policy adjustments in this area [2] - In the first seven months of this year, over 80% of new residential sales and more than 50% of second-hand home transactions occurred outside the Fifth Ring Road, indicating a shift in market activity [2] Group 3: Financial Support Measures - The new policy includes increased support for housing provident fund loans, broadening the definition of first-time homebuyers and raising the maximum loan limit for second homes to 1 million yuan [3] - The policy allows for a lower down payment for families previously classified as second-home buyers, effectively reducing the barriers to homeownership [3] Group 4: Expected Outcomes - The adjustments are expected to alleviate inventory pressure, stimulate economic growth, relieve population density in central areas, and promote regional collaboration [3]

Summary of Beijing Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Beijing real estate market, highlighting significant changes in transaction volumes, prices, and government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [1][5][18]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In July, Beijing's real estate market saw a transaction volume of 34.35 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 32.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.13% [5]. - The average transaction price in July was 63,859 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.52% [5]. - The first seven months of the year showed a higher supply-demand ratio compared to the same period last year, with notable growth in Haidian District, where transaction volume increased by 317% [6][7]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The current inventory in Beijing is substantial, with a narrow inventory digestion cycle of 45.2 months and a broad cycle of 49.8 months, particularly high in Fengtai District [8]. - The second-hand housing market is stabilizing, with transactions expected to remain between 14,000 to 16,000 units in Q2 2025, but July saw a drop to 12,700 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.24% [10]. Government Policies - Recent policy changes include relaxed purchase restrictions for non-residents outside the Fifth Ring Road, allowing them to buy two properties instead of one [2]. - The government is closely monitoring market changes and has introduced measures to stabilize the market, with future adjustments likely focusing on areas within the Fifth Ring Road and financial policies [18][19]. Market Reactions - The market's response to new policies has been muted, with increased visitor numbers but no significant rise in transactions [4]. - The high-end improvement projects have performed well, while the mid-range market faces intense competition [11]. Land Market Trends - The land market has seen a decrease in supply but an increase in transaction prices, influenced by high-priced residential land sales [16]. - Developers are cautious in land acquisition, with a notable focus on strategic locations like Haidian and Tongzhou [16][17]. Company Performance - Leading companies in the new housing market include Yuexiu with a transaction volume of 19.7 billion yuan, followed by China Resources at 15.7 billion yuan [13]. - Companies like China Overseas and China Merchants are facing significant inventory pressures, necessitating price reductions to stimulate sales [27]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing challenges due to insufficient purchasing power and ongoing price declines in the second-hand housing sector [20][21]. - The government aims to maintain market stability through gradual adjustments rather than sweeping reforms [18][19]. Additional Important Insights - The new housing market has seen improvements in product quality, with a focus on better design and amenities, which has attracted buyers despite the overall market challenges [25]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with some projects experiencing significant price drops while others maintain stability due to their strategic locations and pricing [14][24].

Core Insights - The new policy has significantly increased the number of visitors to new housing projects in Beijing, particularly in areas outside the Fifth Ring Road, indicating a potential sales peak in the market [1][9][10] - The policy allows families meeting certain criteria to purchase an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, which is expected to stimulate demand [1][10] Market Response - Over the weekend following the policy announcement, one project reported over 50 units were reserved on the first day, with continued interest late into the night [2][4] - In a specific project in Tongzhou District, more than 70 groups visited on Sunday, showcasing a strong interest in new housing [3][6] Sales Dynamics - Sales consultants noted a clear increase in both visitor numbers and transaction volumes, with some projects experiencing up to 300 groups of visitors in a single day [7][9] - The average price for new homes in the area ranges from 6,000 to 6,300 yuan per square meter, with a significant portion of units already sold [6][10] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the new policy will lead to a sales peak in the market, as the removal of purchase limits is likely to attract more buyers [9][10] - The policy is also expected to encourage developers to accelerate project construction and sales, while the second-hand housing market may see increased activity as well [9][10]