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酒鬼酒(000799):25Q3持续调整,渠道积极求变
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 760 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -10 million yuan [6] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 198 million yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.78%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -19 million yuan [6] - The company is actively restructuring its channels and has made significant progress in optimizing its marketing expenses, which is expected to stabilize profitability in the medium to long term [6] - The company has established a partnership with a new channel, "自由爱 酒鬼酒," which is expected to enhance its market presence [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 1,010 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 29.1% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 7 million yuan in 2025, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 and 2027, reaching 80 million yuan and 113 million yuan respectively [5] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 61.2%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was -92 million yuan, an improvement from -203 million yuan in the same period last year [6]