新的竞争时代
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世界经济论坛:在动荡与变化的时代坚持对话和沟通
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-18 20:33
Core Viewpoint - The World Economic Forum's 56th annual meeting highlights the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for dialogue and cooperation amidst rising global risks [1] Group 1: Global Risks - A new era of competition is identified, with global risks becoming interwoven and escalating, as reflected in the 2026 Global Risk Report [2] - Only 1% of respondents believe that the global situation will remain stable in the short and long term, with 50% expecting instability in the next two years, a significant increase from 36% the previous year [2] - Geoeconomic confrontation is seen as the primary risk, with 18% of respondents indicating it could lead to a global crisis by 2026, influenced by U.S. tariff policies disrupting global trade [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Geoeconomic confrontation has risen in risk ranking, now viewed as the most severe threat, reflecting the weakening of multilateral institutions [3] - Armed conflict between nations remains a high-ranking risk, with recent U.S. military actions underscoring the precarious global situation [3] - Environmental risks, while still significant, are perceived as less urgent in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [3] Group 3: Cooperation Trends - Despite challenges to multilateralism, cooperation persists in various forms, with climate and technology sectors showing strong collaboration [4] - "Small multilateralism" is emerging as a potential model for future cooperation, as global fragmentation and trade barriers increase [5] - The need for new cooperative frameworks is emphasized, as individual countries cannot address major challenges alone, necessitating proactive international engagement [5]