Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 3.47, representing a potential downside of 8.9% from the current price of HKD 3.81 [1][4][11]. Core Views - The company experienced an expanded loss in Q4, with a reported loss of RMB 363 million, which is an 88% increase quarter-on-quarter. This was primarily due to a 13% decline in the average price of photovoltaic glass, leading to a gross margin drop of 11.6 percentage points to a record low of -30.4% [2][7]. - Recent strong rebounds in photovoltaic glass prices are expected to help mitigate losses, with a projected price increase of RMB 1.75 per square meter or 15% in March, and an anticipated further increase of RMB 0.5 per square meter or 4% in April [7][9]. - The company plans to increase its stake in Jiangsu Kaisheng by investing RMB 370 million to acquire 74.6% equity, while its northern glass production capacity is ready for ignition, pending market conditions [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 6,595 million, with a significant decline expected in 2024 to RMB 4,594 million, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [3][14]. - The net profit is forecasted to be a loss of RMB 610 million in 2024, with gradual improvements leading to a profit of RMB 34 million by 2027 [3][14]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain negative in 2024 at -4.8%, with a slight recovery to 1.0% in 2025 [9][14]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a supply-demand reversal, with production capacity decreasing from a peak of 123,000 tons to 97,000 tons by January 2025, which is expected to support price increases [7][9]. - The introduction of new policies for distributed photovoltaic projects and changes in new energy pricing are likely to drive demand ahead of the deadlines in May 2025, creating a short-term surge in demand [7][9].