Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in Q1 2025, with revenue of 4.08 billion RMB, surpassing expectations of a loss, and achieving a profit of 106 million RMB compared to a loss of 289 million RMB in Q4 2024 [6][7]. - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass increased by 5.5% quarter-on-quarter, contributing to improved gross and net profit margins, which rose by 8.8 and 9.6 percentage points to 11.7% and 2.6%, respectively [6]. - The report anticipates a substantial increase in profitability in Q2 2025, despite adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 15%, 10%, and 9% due to increased production from second and third-tier companies and the impact of tariffs on Vietnamese production [6][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 21,524 million RMB in 2023, 18,683 million RMB in 2024, and 18,433 million RMB in 2025E, with a projected growth of 39.2% in 2023 followed by a decline of 13.2% in 2024 [5][12]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 2,760 million RMB in 2023 to 893 million RMB in 2025E, reflecting a significant drop of 63.4% in 2024 [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline from 21.8% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2025E, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [12][8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a strong rebound in photovoltaic glass prices, which have recently started to decline as inventory levels increase following a surge in demand due to new policies [6][8]. - The company’s production capacity in Vietnam is affected by "reciprocal tariffs," but the overall impact is deemed limited due to the ability to redirect exports to other countries [6][12]. - The anticipated increase in supply from June 2025 is expected to put pressure on glass prices, as the company has not yet confirmed the production timeline for its new capacity of 7,200 tons [6][12].

公司更新 交银国际研究 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 8.48 | 港元 | 11.30↓ | +33.3% | | | 福莱特玻璃 (6865 HK) | | | | | | 1 季度大幅扭亏超预期；维持买入 | 个股评级 | | --- | | 买入 | 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 4/25 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6865 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 19.30 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 8.37 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 33,033.78 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 1.82 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (22.34) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 11.98 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 文昊, CPA bob.wen@ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 3.47, representing a potential downside of 8.9% from the current price of HKD 3.81 [1][4][11]. Core Views - The company experienced an expanded loss in Q4, with a reported loss of RMB 363 million, which is an 88% increase quarter-on-quarter. This was primarily due to a 13% decline in the average price of photovoltaic glass, leading to a gross margin drop of 11.6 percentage points to a record low of -30.4% [2][7]. - Recent strong rebounds in photovoltaic glass prices are expected to help mitigate losses, with a projected price increase of RMB 1.75 per square meter or 15% in March, and an anticipated further increase of RMB 0.5 per square meter or 4% in April [7][9]. - The company plans to increase its stake in Jiangsu Kaisheng by investing RMB 370 million to acquire 74.6% equity, while its northern glass production capacity is ready for ignition, pending market conditions [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 6,595 million, with a significant decline expected in 2024 to RMB 4,594 million, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [3][14]. - The net profit is forecasted to be a loss of RMB 610 million in 2024, with gradual improvements leading to a profit of RMB 34 million by 2027 [3][14]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain negative in 2024 at -4.8%, with a slight recovery to 1.0% in 2025 [9][14]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a supply-demand reversal, with production capacity decreasing from a peak of 123,000 tons to 97,000 tons by January 2025, which is expected to support price increases [7][9]. - The introduction of new policies for distributed photovoltaic projects and changes in new energy pricing are likely to drive demand ahead of the deadlines in May 2025, creating a short-term surge in demand [7][9].