Core Viewpoint - The Chinese heavy truck market is showing significant signs of recovery in 2025, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with sales expected to exceed expectations due to strong demand and supportive policies [1][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June 2025, heavy truck sales reached 97,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.14% and a month-on-month increase of 10.25%, marking three consecutive months of growth beyond seasonal factors [1]. - The first half of 2025 saw a strong performance in the heavy truck sector, particularly in the second quarter, with sales rebounding significantly after a sluggish first quarter [1][4]. - New energy heavy trucks experienced robust growth, with sales nearly doubling from 27,700 units in the first half of 2024 to 79,200 units in 2025, achieving a market penetration rate of over 26.03% [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy, implemented in March 2025, includes subsidies for scrapping old trucks and has expanded to include gas vehicles, stimulating market demand [6][7]. - The policy aims to encourage the replacement of older trucks with more environmentally friendly models, thereby promoting a green transition in the industry [7][11]. - By mid-2025, over half of the provinces and municipalities had released detailed implementation rules for the policy, enhancing user willingness to update their vehicles [7][11]. Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - The heavy truck market's growth is supported by improved domestic infrastructure investment, with industrial investment rising by 10.3% and infrastructure investment by 4.6% in the first half of 2025 [9]. - The ongoing technological advancements in commercial vehicles, particularly in new energy trucks, are expected to provide a solid foundation for sustained industry growth [10][11]. - The combination of policy support and technological innovation is likely to create a virtuous cycle, enhancing demand for new trucks and driving further upgrades in the industry [10][11].