在老旧货车以旧换新政策的持续驱动下，2025年9月的重卡行业交出了10.5万辆、同比涨 超8成的"成绩"，可谓含金量十足。 在这个如期到来的"金九"旺季里，几个主要重卡企业的销量和份额如何？谁更抢眼？ 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 9月重卡销10.5万辆，燃气车翻倍，电动重卡创纪录 根据第一商用车网最新掌握的数据，2025年9月份，我国重卡市场共计销售约10.5万辆 （批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比上涨15%，比上年同期的5.8万辆大幅增长约 82%。截止到目前，重卡市场已经实现了六连涨，近六个月的平均增速高达39%。 10.5万辆放在最近八年来看，只低于2020年9月的15.1万辆，比其他年份的9月份销量都 要高，市场整体表现超预期。累计来看，今年1-9月，我国重卡市场累计销量超过了80万 辆——达到约82.1万辆，同比增长约20%。 "金九"销量同比大涨的原因，一是去年同期销量基数较低；二是公路货运小旺季到来，用 户购车需求增长；三是国三及国四营运货车以旧换新政策的推动。与此同时，下半年以来， 我国重卡出口也保持了稳健增长——今年9月中国重卡出口批发销量预计同比上涨6%左 右，让全球汽车业看到了"中国 ...

可以看到，今年4-9月份重卡批发销量与国内终端销量的表现基本是同步的，月销量同比增幅呈现出明显的加速度。 2015-2025年我国重卡行业销量年度走势图（单位：万辆） 智通财经APP获悉，10月8日，第一商用车网发文称，在淡季不淡、同比大增的7、8月份过后，重卡行业迎来了"金九"。根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数 据，2025年9月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10.5万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比今年8月上涨15%，比上年同期的5.8万辆大幅增长约 82%。 截止到目前，重卡市场已经实现了六连涨——4月份销量同比增长6.5%，5月份同比增长13.6%，6月份同比增长37%，7月份销量同比增长46%，8月份销量 同比增长47%，9月份则同比上涨了82%，4-9月份近六个月的平均增速高达39%。 10.5万辆放在最近八年来看，属于第二高水平，只低于2020年9月的15.1万辆，比其他年份的9月份销量都要高，市场整体表现超预期。累计来看，今年1-9 月，我国重卡市场累计销量超过了80万辆——达到82.1万辆，同比增长约20%，全年销量超过100万辆毫无悬念，并且按照这个趋势来看的话，2025年的 重卡行业很有 ...

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's heavy truck market achieved sales of 87,000 units, marking a nearly 40% year-on-year growth, indicating a strong recovery and potential to exceed 1 million units for the year [1][3][24]. Group 1: Market Performance - The heavy truck market in August saw a slight month-on-month increase of 2% compared to July, and a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 39% from 62,500 units [3][5]. - Cumulatively, from January to August, the heavy truck market reached 711,000 units sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 14% [3][24]. - The August sales figure of 87,000 units is the second highest in the past eight years, only behind August 2020's 130,000 units [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The growth in August is attributed to two main factors: a low base from the previous year and the implementation of a vehicle replacement policy for older trucks, which has stabilized the new truck market [5][10]. - Domestic terminal sales of heavy trucks are expected to have increased by nearly 50% year-on-year in August, further expanding from a 39% increase in July [5][8]. Group 3: Segment Performance - Both gas-powered and electric heavy trucks experienced significant year-on-year growth in August, with gas trucks rebounding after five months of decline [8][10]. - Electric heavy trucks saw a remarkable increase in terminal sales, exceeding 16,000 units in August, representing a year-on-year growth of over 160% [10][12]. - Diesel heavy trucks also showed a year-on-year increase of over 25% in August, although they faced a month-on-month decline of approximately 20% [10]. Group 4: Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) sold approximately 22,000 heavy trucks in August, maintaining its position as the market leader with a year-on-year growth of about 29% [12][14]. - FAW Jiefang sold around 16,500 heavy trucks in August, achieving a year-on-year growth of approximately 36% [16]. - Dongfeng Motor Corporation sold about 15,000 heavy trucks, with a notable year-on-year increase of 52% [18]. - Beiqi Foton and XCMG reported the highest growth rates among major companies, with Foton's sales increasing by 175% year-on-year [20][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The heavy truck market is on track to exceed 1 million units sold for the year, with an average monthly sales target of 73,000 units needed in the remaining months [24].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China is experiencing significant growth, with sales expected to exceed 1 million units for the year, marking a return to pre-pandemic levels [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In August 2025, approximately 84,000 heavy trucks were sold in China, a slight decrease of 1% from July but a 35% increase year-on-year from 62,500 units [1]. - Cumulative sales from January to August 2025 reached nearly 710,000 units, indicating a year-on-year growth of about 13% [3]. - The monthly average sales needed to surpass 1 million units for the year is approximately 73,000 units over the next four months, which is deemed achievable based on current market conditions [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The significant year-on-year growth in August's sales is attributed to a nearly 50% increase in domestic terminal sales, driven by low base effects from the previous year and supportive government policies [3]. - The "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy implemented across various provinces has provided a stable boost to the heavy truck market since mid-May [3]. Group 3: Export and Segment Performance - Heavy truck exports in August are expected to grow by around 10% year-on-year, reflecting a robust performance in this segment [5]. - The natural gas heavy truck segment has shown signs of recovery, with terminal demand increasing by over 30% year-on-year in August, aided by stable LNG prices and regional replacement policies [6]. - Electric heavy trucks have also seen explosive growth, with terminal sales exceeding 16,000 units in August, representing a year-on-year increase of over 160% [7].

Summary of Heavy Truck Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The heavy truck market in July 2025 experienced a year-on-year growth of 42%, continuing the upward trend from the second quarter, although there was a month-on-month decline due to inventory adjustments and seasonal factors [1][2][3]. Key Insights - **Sales Performance**: July heavy truck sales reached 83,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 15% but a year-on-year increase of 42%. This marks the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year growth since April [2]. - **Market Drivers**: The "old-for-new" policy is identified as the main driver for the heavy truck market in the second half of 2025, with expectations of continued double-digit year-on-year growth in August and beyond, despite potential month-on-month declines due to seasonal factors [1][4][5]. - **Export Growth**: Heavy truck exports in July saw a year-on-year increase of over 20%, with stable performance in non-Russian regions, particularly in Africa, contributing to overall export stability [1][7]. - **Wholesale and Retail Dynamics**: Companies are adopting cautious wholesale strategies, aligning production with terminal sales to avoid excessive inventory. July terminal sales saw a month-on-month decline of nearly 20%, but still grew approximately 20% year-on-year [1][8]. - **Electric Truck Market**: Electric heavy trucks now account for over 20% of the market share, significantly impacting overall market dynamics. Despite a sales surge in June leading to a retail market pullback in July, strong growth momentum is expected to continue [1][9][12][13]. - **Gas Truck Market**: The gas truck market remained stable month-on-month in July but saw a year-on-year decline of over 20%. Factors such as the widening oil-gas price gap and the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy in northern regions are influencing this segment [1][10][11]. - **Diesel Truck Market**: The diesel truck market is primarily driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with July sales expected to grow over 25% year-on-year, despite a month-on-month decline due to seasonal trends [1][14]. Future Outlook - **Market Trends**: The heavy truck market is anticipated to experience a "first dip, then rise" trend in the second half of 2025, with sales expected to rebound in September and October following a seasonal low in August [1][15]. - **Sales Projections**: The average monthly sales in the last four months of 2025 are projected to exceed 90,000 units, with an overall annual sales estimate of around 1.05 million units, including 750,000 units in the domestic market and 300,000 units in exports [1][16][19]. - **Policy Impact**: The "old-for-new" policy is expected to have a significant impact on market performance, with the potential for a tail effect at the end of the year due to policy deadlines [1][15][17]. Additional Considerations - **Inventory Status**: The industry maintained a balanced inventory level in July, with no significant changes compared to June. The focus remains on order-based production to avoid excess stock [1][28]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The heavy truck industry is characterized by stable competition among major players like Jiefang, Dongfeng, and Shacman, while new entrants like SANY and XCMG are gradually increasing their market share [1][24][25]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Recent government measures to address overloading in transportation may lead to adjustments in the car carrier market, although the overall impact is expected to be limited [1][21][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the heavy truck market, highlighting sales performance, market drivers, future outlook, and competitive dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has experienced a significant increase in sales, with July 2025 showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 42%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth since April 2025 [2][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July 2025, approximately 83,000 heavy trucks were sold, a decrease of 15% from June but an increase of about 42% compared to the same month last year [2][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, the heavy truck market sales reached approximately 622,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 11% [2]. - The sales figures for July 2025 are the second highest in the past eight years, only behind July 2020 [2]. Group 2: Segment Analysis - The sales of electric heavy trucks in July 2025 exceeded 15,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of over 120% [9]. - The domestic terminal sales of diesel heavy trucks in July 2025 are expected to grow by over 25% year-on-year, despite a significant month-on-month decline [11]. - The gas truck segment saw a recovery in terminal sales, with a domestic penetration rate rising from below 20% in June to approximately 24% in July [7]. Group 3: Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) sold about 22,000 heavy trucks in July 2025, maintaining the highest market share at approximately 27.5% [14]. - FAW Jiefang sold around 15,000 heavy trucks in July 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of about 42% [16]. - Beiqi Foton reported the highest year-on-year growth among major companies, with sales of approximately 11,500 units in July 2025, reflecting a growth rate of about 134% [20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The heavy truck market is expected to see significant growth in the third quarter of 2025, driven by the "old-for-new" policy for trucks and the low sales figures from the previous year [24]. - The year-on-year growth rate for September 2025 is anticipated to exceed 50% [24].

Group 1 - The heavy truck industry in China experienced a significant sales increase in July, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42%, totaling approximately 83,000 units sold, marking the second-highest level in the past eight years for the same period [1] - The surge in sales is driven by policy support and structural market demand, particularly due to the implementation of old vehicle replacement policies that have led to a spike in demand from May to July [2] - The export market also showed robust growth, with a predicted year-on-year increase of over 20% in heavy truck exports for July, supported by strong performance in key regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia [2] Group 2 - The heavy truck market is entering a replacement cycle, with many trucks sold between 2017 and 2021 now reaching the end of their operational life, which is expected to release significant replacement demand [2] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks continues to rise, with July sales exceeding 15,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of over 120% and a penetration rate surpassing 26% [4] - The industry is witnessing a shift from diesel to new energy and natural gas trucks, with expectations that the market will eventually be divided among diesel, natural gas, and new energy vehicles over the next 3 to 5 years [4] Group 3 - Companies like Weichai Power are optimistic about the heavy truck industry's development and are focusing on enhancing product competitiveness and market expansion [3] - The structural changes in logistics demand, policy direction, and technological advancements are identified as key drivers for the heavy truck industry's future growth [3] - The improvement in fast-charging technology and charging infrastructure is enhancing the competitiveness of new energy heavy trucks in medium to long-distance transportation [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [1] Core Insights - The heavy truck industry continues to exhibit high prosperity, driven by government policies promoting the replacement of old vehicles [3][5] - In July 2025, approximately 83,000 heavy trucks were sold in China, reflecting a 15% month-on-month decrease but a 42% year-on-year increase [5] - Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, the heavy truck market in China recorded sales of about 622,000 units, representing an 11% year-on-year growth [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The heavy truck market experienced a significant year-on-year increase in sales, with July 2025 sales up by 42% compared to the same month last year [5] - The market's performance is influenced by the implementation of policies aimed at phasing out older trucks, which has stimulated demand for new heavy trucks [5] Policy Impact - The introduction of differentiated subsidies for scrapping and replacing old trucks has positively impacted the heavy truck market, particularly in the months of May, June, and July [5] - The "old-for-new" policy has been a key driver for the four consecutive months of sales growth in the heavy truck sector [5] Demand Trends - There has been a recovery in terminal demand for gas trucks, with the penetration rate increasing from below 20% in June to around 24% in July [5] - New energy heavy trucks have seen a significant increase in sales, with July's sales exceeding 15,000 units, marking a year-on-year growth of over 120% and a penetration rate exceeding 26% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the heavy truck sector, including China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and CIMC Vehicles [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese heavy truck market is showing significant signs of recovery in 2025, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with sales expected to exceed expectations due to strong demand and supportive policies [1][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June 2025, heavy truck sales reached 97,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.14% and a month-on-month increase of 10.25%, marking three consecutive months of growth beyond seasonal factors [1]. - The first half of 2025 saw a strong performance in the heavy truck sector, particularly in the second quarter, with sales rebounding significantly after a sluggish first quarter [1][4]. - New energy heavy trucks experienced robust growth, with sales nearly doubling from 27,700 units in the first half of 2024 to 79,200 units in 2025, achieving a market penetration rate of over 26.03% [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy, implemented in March 2025, includes subsidies for scrapping old trucks and has expanded to include gas vehicles, stimulating market demand [6][7]. - The policy aims to encourage the replacement of older trucks with more environmentally friendly models, thereby promoting a green transition in the industry [7][11]. - By mid-2025, over half of the provinces and municipalities had released detailed implementation rules for the policy, enhancing user willingness to update their vehicles [7][11]. Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - The heavy truck market's growth is supported by improved domestic infrastructure investment, with industrial investment rising by 10.3% and infrastructure investment by 4.6% in the first half of 2025 [9]. - The ongoing technological advancements in commercial vehicles, particularly in new energy trucks, are expected to provide a solid foundation for sustained industry growth [10][11]. - The combination of policy support and technological innovation is likely to create a virtuous cycle, enhancing demand for new trucks and driving further upgrades in the industry [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - In June, heavy truck sales in China reached approximately 94,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 32%, significantly exceeding expectations [4][5][6]. Sales Performance - The heavy truck market in June 2025 saw sales of about 94,000 units, a 6% increase from May and a 32% increase from June 2024 [4][5]. - Cumulatively, from January to June 2025, the heavy truck market sold approximately 535,300 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 6% [5]. Market Drivers - The primary reason for the significant sales increase in June, traditionally a "slow season," is attributed to the implementation of vehicle replacement policies across various regions, which have stimulated demand for new heavy trucks [6][26]. - Additionally, some leading manufacturers ramped up production to boost sales figures at the end of the half-year [7]. Segment Analysis - The domestic terminal heavy truck sales also experienced a year-on-year increase of nearly 40% in June, with a slight month-on-month rise of about 3% [7]. - New energy heavy trucks saw terminal sales surpassing 16,000 units in June, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 130%, setting a new monthly sales record [9]. Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation led the market with sales of about 23,000 units in June, achieving a year-on-year growth of 21% [13][15]. - Dongfeng Motor Corporation followed with sales of approximately 18,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47% [17]. - FAW Jiefang and Shaanxi Automobile both exceeded 16,000 units in sales, with year-on-year growth rates of 42% and 22%, respectively [17][19]. - Foton Motor achieved the highest growth rate among major companies, with a 116% increase in June sales [21]. Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to continue its upward trend in sales, particularly in the third quarter, driven by ongoing vehicle replacement policies and the low sales figures from the previous year [26].