1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The next - week view is that the price trend of lithium carbonate will be oscillating and strengthening. The current market is pricing in advance the expected increase in the price center in 2026, and the price is likely to rise rather than fall before the high - growth of energy storage demand in 2026 can be falsified. The behavior of listed companies in the industry reflects their recognition of the increase in the price center in 2026 and the downstream's high confidence in the high growth of demand, as well as their attempt to negotiate the further price transfer of industrial chain profits [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Observation - **Price**: LC2605 closed at 130,520 yuan/ton (+19,120), a week - on - week increase of 17.2%. The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) on Friday was 1,510 US dollars/ton, an increase of 175 US dollars/ton from last week. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 111,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 14,250 yuan/ton from last week. The basis weakened to - 16,660 yuan/ton [4]. - **Valuation**: The funds settled in the lithium carbonate variety last week rose to 29.86 billion yuan (+4.1 billion), with 16.56 billion yuan (+170 million) in LC2605, 3.13 billion yuan (+1.68 billion) in LC2607, and 3.37 billion yuan (+1.77 billion) in LC2609 [4]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in November was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%. It is expected to be 98,000 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 22,161 tons (+116 tons) [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, the sample inventory was 109,000 tons, with a de - stocking of 653 tons; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 17,861 (+2,350) lots; the inventory days of lithium carbonate were 26.1 days (-0.1 days) [4]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: In November, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was 1.88 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month increase of 6.1%. The retail sales of domestic new energy passenger cars were 1.354 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [4]. - **Energy Storage Demand**: The total tendering capacity of EPC and energy storage systems in November was 51.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 208%. The winning bid capacity in October was 16.3 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%. It is expected that energy storage projects will start intensively in December and show an increase from March next year, and the domestic energy storage market will maintain high prosperity next year [4]. - **Consumer Electronics Demand**: In November, the production of consumer electronics improved month - on - month. The production of smartphones and micro - electronic computers was 117.89 million units and 27.49 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and 13.5%. The production of cobalt - lithium oxide in November was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [4]. 3.2 Industry Analysis: Lithium - Supply - The price of Australian lithium ore quotes rose to 1,510 US dollars/ton (+175 US dollars/ton), and the inventory of available lithium ore increased to 146,000 tons [17]. - The production of lithium carbonate in November was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%, and it is expected to be 98,000 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 3.0% [20]. - The production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene in November was 57,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%, and it is expected to be 60,800 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. It is expected that the production from salt lakes will decrease seasonally, while that from mica will increase month - on - month [24]. - The production of lithium hydroxide in November was 29,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%, and it is expected to be 28,900 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% [29]. - In November, the domestic production capacity of lithium carbonate increased to 184,000 tons/year, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%, and the production capacity of lithium hydroxide increased to 68,700 tons/year, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% [32]. - This week, the smelting start - up rate of lithium carbonate slightly rose to 55.1% [35]. - The production of lithium chloride in November was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%, and it is expected to be 4,750 tons in December. The price of lithium chloride rose to 83,300 yuan/ton [37]. - In November, the import of lithium concentrate was 677,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6%, and the import of lithium salts was 22,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% [40]. - The recycling volume of waste lithium batteries in November increased to 33,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.8% [44]. 3.3 Industry Analysis: Lithium - Demand - The production of lithium iron phosphate in November was 413,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%, and it is expected to be 410,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The production of ternary materials in November was 84,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%, and it is expected to be 78,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [48]. - The production of cobalt - lithium oxide in November was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%, and it is expected to be 13,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The production of manganese - lithium oxide in November was 13,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%, and it is expected to be 12,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. The production of lithium hexafluorophosphate in November was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.0%, and it is expected to be 29,000 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [51]. - The production of power and energy storage batteries in November was 176.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%. The installed capacity of power batteries in November was 93.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.1%. The production of domestic new energy passenger cars in November was 1.88 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.1%, and the sales volume was 1.823 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [54]. - The production of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles in November was 1.756 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% [57]. - The retail sales of domestic new energy passenger cars in November was 1.354 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, with a weekly penetration rate of 57.5% [60]. - In November, the profit of the automobile industry declined, and the inventory of pure new energy vehicle manufacturers and channels increased to 740,000 [63]. - The global sales of new energy vehicles in November were 2.241 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.1% and a month - on - month increase of 5.8%. The sales of new energy vehicles in the US dropped sharply after the subsidy window period on October 1st, with a sales volume of 84,000, a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4% [67]. - The energy storage demand was high, but limited by the slowdown of capacity growth, the orders were scheduled until next year. The production of energy storage cells in November was 57.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.9%, and it is expected to be 57.4 GWh in December, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The industry's start - up rate in November remained unchanged at 89.5%, and the inventory was 39.9 GWh (-2.1 GWh), with a monthly export of 8.8 GWh of energy storage batteries [70]. - The tendering capacity of energy storage in November was 51.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 208%, including 49.4 GWh for EPC and 1.8 GWh for energy storage systems [75]. - The winning bid capacity in October was 16.3 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%. The winning bid prices of EPC and energy storage systems increased to 1.28 yuan/Wh and 0.60 yuan/Wh respectively [80]. - Overseas energy storage maintained high prosperity. Different countries have different development trends and policies, such as India's mandatory energy storage policy, and European countries being stimulated by dynamic electricity prices and subsidy policies [83]. - The domestic consumer - type lithium battery market slightly rebounded in November [84]. - In November, the export of lithium carbonate was 759 tons, a month - on - month increase of 209%, and the export of lithium hydroxide was 3,356 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.7% [87]. 3.4 Industry Analysis: Lithium - Inventory and Valuation - **Inventory**: This week, the sample inventory was 109,000 tons, with a de - stocking of 653 tons; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 17,861 (+2,350) lots; the inventory days of lithium carbonate were 26.1 days (-0.1 days) [91]. - **Valuation**: The basis weakened to - 16,660 yuan/ton, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide strengthened to +8,848 yuan/ton; the price difference between 01 and 03 contracts weakened by 620 yuan/ton, and the price difference between 01 and 05 contracts weakened to - 2,720 yuan/ton [93]. - The estimated gross profit margin of lithium salt plants continued to be in a loss state; the raw material prices rose rapidly, and the theoretical gross profit margins of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials declined [96]. - The IV of the main at - the - money options rebounded to 0.5, and the open interest slightly decreased to 1.04 million lots [99].