中国期货业协会10月13日发布的最新统计资料显示，以单边计算，9月全国期货市场成交量为7.7亿手， 成交额为71.5万亿元，同比分别下降3.03%和增长33.16%。1—9月全国期货市场累计成交量为67.44亿 手，累计成交额为547.62万亿元，同比分别增长18.29%和24.11%。 品种表现方面，数据显示，9月，按照成交额统计，排名各期货交易所前三的品种分别为上期所的黄 金、白银、铜，郑商所的玻璃、纯碱、烧碱，大商所的焦煤、棕榈油、豆粕，广期所的多晶硅期货、碳 酸锂期货、工业硅期货，中金所的中证1000股指期货、中证500股指期货、沪深300股指期货。按照成交 量统计，排名各交易所前三的品种分别为上期所的螺纹钢、白银、热轧卷板，郑商所的玻璃、纯碱、 PTA，大商所的焦煤、豆粕、聚氯乙烯，广期所的碳酸锂期货、工业硅期货、多晶硅期货。 从各家期货交易所的成交情况来看，1—9月，上期所累计成交量为16.86亿手，累计成交额为168.42万亿 元，同比分别增长2.55%和13.58%；上期能源累计成交量为1.26亿手，累计成交额为23.95万亿元，同比 分别增长18.73%和下降0.92%；郑商所累计成交量为2 ...

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年10月06日-10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周11合约为下跌态势，周一开盘价为73800元/吨，周五收盘价为72740元/吨，周跌幅为1.40%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为20635吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13064吨，环比增 加0.58%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2695吨，环比减少5.10%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产 2904吨，环比增加5.10%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产1972吨，环比增加2.49%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年9月碳酸锂需求量为116801实物吨，环比增加12.28%,预测下月需求量为123198 实 ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 股指期货将震荡偏弱 国债期货将震荡偏强 黄金、白银期货 将偏强震荡 铜、锡、多晶硅、焦煤、玻璃、原油、燃料 油、天然橡胶期货将震荡偏弱 焦煤、纯碱期货将偏弱震 荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 白银期货主力合约 AG2512 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 11309 和 11490 元/千克，支撑位 10939 和 10844 元/千克。 铜期货主力合约 CU2511 大概率将震荡偏弱，并将下探支撑位 82300 和 81500 元/吨，阻力位 87000 和 88100 元/吨。 铝期货主力合约 AL2511 大概率将偏弱震荡，并将下探支撑位 20650 和 20600 元/吨，阻力位 21090 和 21210 元/吨。 氧化铝期货主力合约 AO2601 大概率将偏弱震荡，并将下探支撑位 2786 和 2750 元/吨，阻力位 2856 和 2868 元/吨。 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力 ...

商品期货早班车 招商期货 2025年10月13日 星期一 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：以伦敦金计价的国际金价上涨 1.06%,收报 4018 美元/盎司;国内方面。 基本面：美国 9 月 CPI 因政府停摆推迟至 10 月 24 日发布；市场预计政府停摆到 10 月 15 日；特朗普威胁对 中国所有商品加征 100%关税，贸易战再次升级；美联储理事沃勒：就业市场是最大担忧，对降息 25 基点持 开放态度。国内黄金 ETF 资金流入。COMEX 黄金库存 1242 吨，保持不变；上期所黄金库存 70 吨，维持不 变；伦敦 8 月黄金库存 8830 吨；上期所白银库存 1169 吨，减少 17 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1172 吨， 减少 42 吨，COMEX 白银库存 16248 吨，减少 104 吨；伦敦 8 月白银库存增加 447 吨至 24643 吨；印度 7 月白银进口约 340 吨左右；全球最大黄金 ETF-SPDR 持有量 1017 吨，增加 4 吨；白银 etf--iShares 持有量 为 15443 吨，减少 9 吨。 交易策略：去美元化逻辑未变，美联储如期降息，但展望存在矛 ...

行业 碳酸锂期货日报 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 每日报告 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货下跌，中国对重量能量密度大于等于 300 Wh/kg 的锂电池出口管制， 涉及范围相对较小，对盘面利空影响有限，不过藏格矿业拿到锂矿证，复产在即 对盘面压力明显，早盘碳酸锂低开，不过随着午后 A 股跌幅扩大，空头情绪传染 下碳酸锂跌势扩大。现货电碳持平 73550，澳矿跌 2.5 至 827.5，锂云母矿跌 25 至 1810，盐厂生产情况有所好转，外购锂辉 ...

有色金属日报 2025-10-13 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 特朗普威胁对中国大幅加征关税，市场避险情绪急剧升温，铜价冲高后大幅下挫，周五伦铜 3M 合约 收跌 3.73%至 10374 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 83030 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 75 至 139000 吨，注 销仓单比例持稳，Cash/3M 贴水 31.2 美元/吨。国内上期所库存较节前增加 1.5 万吨，上期所铜仓 单小幅增加至 3.0 万吨，上海地区现货升水期货 ...

2025.10.13-10.17 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间震荡运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至10月10日新疆地区421#价格9100元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力多头阵营略占优势。 预计工业硅2511合约运行区间在7700—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 为了控制国庆长假期间的不确定性风险，建议轻仓 或空仓过节。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，以逢低做多为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据 ...

截至2025年10月10日当周，碳酸锂期货主力合约收于72740元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持 10045手。 本周（10月9日-10月10日）市场上看，碳酸锂期货周内开盘报73200元/吨，最高触及75200元/吨，最低 下探至72600元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-0.55%。 消息面回顾： 2025年9月智利出口碳酸锂1.59万吨，同环比分别-13%/-6%，出口均价8704美元/吨，同环比分别 +15%/+2%。 东海期货：当前碳酸锂供需双增，旺季需求表现强劲，社会库存小幅去库，冶炼厂库存向下游转移，基 本面边际转好，下方空间有限。行情趋于震荡，关注上方压力区间。 数据显示，10月10日电池级碳酸锂（早盘）价格与上日持平，中间价报73250元/吨。 10月9日，,广期所碳酸锂期货仓单42379手，环比上个交易日增加670手。 机构观点汇总： 中粮期货：宜春930事件作为中国锂资源行业监管的标志性事件，正在重塑锂云母供应格局和碳酸锂市 场预期。据悉，宜春8家涉事矿企已于9月30日全部提交储量报告，多位业内人士认为其余矿企在办理后 续手续期间大概率无需停产，经过梳理后，我们认为在产矿山在"陶瓷土证"过渡期 ...

2024年10月，国务院办公厅转发中国证监会等七部门《关于加强监管防范风险促进期货市场高质量发展 的意见》（简称《意见》）。这一具有里程碑意义的指导文件，为新时代期货市场的发展指明了方向， 也对期货行业服务中国式现代化提出了全面的战略要求。《意见》出台一年来，深圳作为期货市场改革 创新的"试验田"，在金融强国建设中展现出积极作为。中信期货等辖区期货经营机构深入贯彻《意见》 精神，不断提升综合实力，助力期货市场服务实体经济功能发挥，以实际行动将国家战略蓝图转化为高 质量发展的生动实践。 聚焦主业 服务实体经济提质增效 《意见》指出，要提升商品期货市场服务实体经济质效，聚焦制造强国建设，更好满足实体企业风险管 理需求。 一年来，中信期货始终坚持金融工作的政治性和人民性，恪守服务实体经济初心，促进期货市场发现价 格、管理风险、配置资源等功能发挥，结合"场内+场外""期货+现货""境内+境外"模式推动多元业务板 块的产品服务升级，以高效适配、多层次且多样化的产品服务构建实体经济与金融体系良性互动的高质 量发展格局。公司积极主动深化业务创新，灵活运用期货、期权等金融工具，并结合期现业务促进传统 贸易模式优化升级，为实体 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].