Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to maintain the interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, amid rising uncertainty regarding inflation and global trade [1][2] - The RBNZ's decision reflects increased uncertainty and recent inflation risks, following a significant tightening cycle where rates were cut by 225 basis points since August of the previous year [1] - New Zealand's first-quarter economic growth rate was reported at 0.8%, providing the RBNZ with time to consider future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Higher export prices and lower interest rates are supporting New Zealand's economic recovery, but global policy uncertainty and tariffs are expected to slow this recovery and reduce inflationary pressures [2] - The market is closely watching upcoming inflation and employment data, with expectations that if mid-term inflation pressures ease, the RBNZ may further lower the official cash rate [2] - Analysts suggest that the focus is shifting to the next RBNZ monetary policy meeting, with the bank adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding future rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The upcoming inflation data on July 21 and employment data on August 5 are expected to significantly impact the pricing of the New Zealand dollar [3] - There are predictions of downside risks for the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, with a target price potentially approaching 0.590 later in the summer due to rising US inflation expectations and a hawkish repricing by the Federal Reserve [3]

新西兰联储：全球政策不确定性加剧，关税预计将降低全球经济增长。这可能会减缓新西兰经济复苏的 步伐，减轻通胀压力。 ...