巴西副总统阿尔克明表示，美国宣布取消对咖啡、肉类和水果等部分品类巴西商品征收40%附加关税，但仍有约22%的对美出口商品继续受到影响。阿尔克明强调，美国放宽对巴西部分出口产品关税，是当前双边谈判的“最大进展”，双方将保持谈判推进，巴西方面对此保持乐观。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署行政命令，取消巴西牛肉、咖啡和其他一些受7月所宣布40%关税影响的农产品进口关税。该命令将影响11月13日或之后进口至美国的巴西产品，部分需要退还已征收的关税，会根据标准退税程序进行退税。 https://t.co/DecG0Ee3UI ...

截至9月的一年里，美国消费者价格指数上涨了3%，这令一些官员感到担忧。威廉姆斯表示，美联储必 须将通胀率恢复至2%的目标水平，但在此过程中不能给劳动力市场带来更严重的冲击。 威廉姆斯表示："展望未来，我们必须持续实现将通胀率恢复至2%的长期目标。同时，这一过程还必须 避免给我们的充分就业目标带来不必要的风险。" 威廉姆斯表示，关税将在接下来的一年里继续推高物价，但他预计到2027年，通胀率将重新回到2%的 目标水平。 根据期货合约的定价情况，市场目前认为在12月的会议上降息的可能性约为40%。 威廉姆斯在演讲中表示："我的判断是，随着劳动力市场的降温，就业方面的下行风险有所增加，而通 胀方面的上行风险则有所减轻。尽管如此，核心通胀仍呈下降趋势，且目前尚未出现因关税引发的'二 次效应'的迹象。" 威廉姆斯表示，贸易关税可能对当前的通胀率起到了约0.5至0.75个百分点的推动作用，不过他补充说， 他认为关税不会引发任何第二轮或其他方面的价格连锁反应。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，鉴于劳动力市场出现疲软态势，他认为美联储短期内仍有降息的空间。威 廉姆斯表示，就业方面的下行风险有所增加，而通胀方面的上行风险则有所降低。 ...

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出更优质的内 容。 文I环球锐评 迟来账单的荒诞 43天的停摆让华尔街分析师集体转行算命，全程在信息黑洞里交易，好不容易等来的数据堪称大新闻， 8月美国贸易逆差暴跌近24%，收窄至596亿美元。 编辑I环球锐评 前言 哈喽大家好，我是小李，今天我们来说一说美国，感恩节近在眼前，圣诞树已陆续登场，美国商务部却 才拖沓交出8月贸易账单。 这场景恰似年夜饭端上桌时，突然收到一张尘封的暑期消费账单，荒诞又刺眼，这一切的推手，正是那 场号称美国史上最长的联邦政府停摆。 关税拥护者或许已举杯欢庆，认定这是关税大棒的胜利，但拨开数据美颜滤镜便知，这绝非什么辉煌战 果，而是断食后强撑的虚脱，表面光鲜，内里早已暗流涌动。 首先要厘清核心逻辑，逆差收窄并非出口爆发，商务部数据明确显示，出口仅微增0.1%，几乎可忽略 不计，真正的主导者是进口端的断崖式下跌，8月进口额狂降5.1%，创四个月来最大跌幅。 这绝非美国人突然勤俭持家，而是关税催生的囤货后遗症，2025年4月，特朗普政府宣布一系列对等关 税计划，商家预判成本暴涨，随即开启疯狂囤货模式。 4至7 ...

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

美国国会预算办公室（CBO）估计，如果特朗普对外国进口商品提高关税的政策持续到2035年，将使美国财政赤字减少3万亿美元（8月预测4万亿美元）。此次下修主要基于新数据，其余部分则源于特朗普政府近期对其关税政策的调整。 ...

TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call November 19, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsDeb Dolce - Senior Vice President and Head of MarketingPaul Lejuez - Managing Director and Head of Consumer Discretionary ResearchBrooke Roach - Vice President of Equity ResearchErnie Herrman - President and CEOJohn Klinger - CFOConference Call ParticipantsMark Altschwager - Retail Stock AnalystJay Sole - Managing Director and Senior Retail AnalystMichael Binetti - Senior Managing Director and Fundamental Resear ...

Core Insights - The latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce indicates a significant narrowing of the trade deficit in August, attributed to a sharp decline in imports following the implementation of global tariffs announced by President Trump [1][3] - The trade deficit for goods and services decreased by nearly 24% from July, reaching $59.6 billion, which was better than the market expectation of $60.4 billion [1][3] Trade Data Summary - Total imports in August fell by 5.1%, marking the largest decline in four months, while exports saw a slight increase [3] - The previous month, July, experienced an expansion of the trade deficit due to businesses accelerating inventory purchases ahead of the implementation of tariffs [3] - The volatility in trade data is expected to impact economic indicators such as GDP, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicating a 0.57 percentage point contribution from net exports to Q3 GDP [3] Import Dynamics - The primary reason for the decline in imports was a significant reduction in non-monetary gold imports, directly linked to increased tariffs on Swiss gold products [3] - The U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland has notably narrowed due to these tariff adjustments, and an agreement has been reached to lower gold import taxes [3] - Additionally, there was a decrease in imports of capital goods, including computer parts and communication equipment [3] Adjusted Trade Deficit - After inflation adjustment, the trade deficit for goods in August narrowed to $83.7 billion, the smallest since the end of 2023 [3] - The trade deficit with China expanded to its highest level since April, while the deficit with Mexico slightly decreased and the deficit with Canada significantly narrowed [3]

欧洲企业第三季度在很大程度上顶住了悲观的盈利预期，业绩指引上调次数远超下调次数。尽管面临关税和汇率波动压力，欧洲企业仍实现了超预期的利润 率。这与更加清晰的贸易政策同步出现，使企业能够对未来的成本和盈利轨迹更具信心。 对财报电话会议记录的分析显示，提及关税的次数较第一、第二季度有所下降。策略师Kaidi Meng与Laurent Douillet在报告中指出："整体基调变得更积极， 关于供应链、通胀和经济复苏的讨论日趋乐观。" 今年夏季，美国与欧盟达成15%关税税率的贸易协议，而德国默克集团(Merck KGaA)等企业也与美国政府就特定协议进行了谈判。此外，作为遭受最高关税 冲击的发达经济体，瑞士刚刚与特朗普政府达成初步协议，将惩罚性关税从39%降至15%。 不过，部分行业仍在贸易紧张局势中挣扎。为汽车和建筑行业提供橡胶与塑料部件的Hexpol AB是欧洲斯托克600指数成分股公司中提及不确定性次数最多 的公司。该公司首席执行官Klas Dahlberg在财报电话会议上表示："美国关税及贸易政策持续引发高度不确定性，这对我们造成间接冲击。"他解释称，关税 政策已损害北美客户利益并抑制需求。 欧洲企业正在摆脱 ...

Group 1: Currency and Investment Trends - Offshore RMB (CNH) has the lowest adjusted 3-month carry yield among major Asian currencies at approximately -0.20, making it less attractive for capital inflows aimed at arbitrage compared to higher-yield currencies [6] - Morgan Stanley indicates that this low yield supports the view that the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate will continue to fluctuate within a range [6] Group 2: Real Estate Market Insights - UBS forecasts that the national residential inventory digestion cycle will extend from approximately 30 months to 25 months, with stabilization of housing prices expected by mid-2027, delayed from early 2026 [8] - The forecast faces multiple downside risks, including weaker-than-expected sales recovery and rising mortgage default rates, which could exert new downward pressure on housing prices [8] Group 3: International Travel and Economic Impact - Japan is projected to be the largest international air travel destination for Chinese tourists by 2025, with an estimated 66,150 flights planned, significantly higher than South Korea and Thailand [11] - Nomura estimates that restrictions on Chinese tourists traveling to Japan could result in a GDP loss of up to 0.36 percentage points for Japan [11] Group 4: Manufacturing and Investment Shifts - Chinese companies are accelerating the relocation of manufacturing facilities to Southeast Asia, with the region's share of China's total outbound direct investment rising from nearly 9% in 2017 to close to 18% by 2024 [13] - China's reliance on high-end capital goods from Germany is decreasing, particularly in automotive parts and machinery, as domestic manufacturing capabilities improve [16] Group 5: Automotive Market Developments - The UAE has overtaken Russia to become China's second-largest export market for passenger vehicles, with exports reaching 367,800 units in the first nine months of 2025, surpassing 357,700 units to Russia [18] - Chinese automotive brands are rapidly increasing their market share in the UAE, rising from 10%-14% last year to 15%-20% in the first nine months of this year [20] Group 6: Economic Sentiment and Consumer Behavior - In the U.S., the disparity in economic confidence between high-income and low-income groups is widening, with high-income households maintaining a growth expectation of 3.0%-3.5%, while low-income households' expectations have dropped to around 2.0% [31] - Food price inflation disproportionately affects low-income families, with the lowest income decile spending 45% of their after-tax income on food, compared to about 15% for the second-lowest income group [28] Group 7: Corporate Financing and AI Investments - Amazon plans to issue approximately $12 billion in bonds to finance its AI infrastructure, marking its first dollar bond issuance in three years, as part of a broader capital race in the tech sector [37] - OpenAI and Anthropic exhibit contrasting strategies in capital utilization and profitability paths, with OpenAI expected to incur significantly higher cash consumption before achieving profitability by 2030 [42] Group 8: European Economic Outlook - The European Commission has raised its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 to 1.3%, up from 0.9%, due to stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first nine months of the year [47] - European companies are generally lowering their earnings expectations for the 2025 fiscal year, with 19 out of 22 sectors experiencing downward revisions, particularly in cyclical industries like paper and packaging, and automotive [50] Group 9: Commodity and Energy Market Dynamics - Russian Urals crude oil prices have sharply declined as sanctions against major Russian energy companies come into effect, with the price gap between Urals and Brent crude widening to $23.52 per barrel [65]

Core Viewpoint - A new Federal Reserve study suggests that tariffs may actually lower inflation by reducing demand, causing unemployment, and slowing economic activity, contradicting the establishment's narrative that tariffs are inflationary [1][4][9]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - The study indicates that tariffs lead to a one-time price adjustment rather than an ongoing inflationary spiral, as inflation is defined by continuous price increases rather than singular adjustments [4][5]. - Tariffs can raise prices, leading to decreased consumption and slower economic activity, which may not necessarily result in inflation [8][9]. - The political narrative surrounding tariffs has shifted, with some parties attributing inflationary pressures to tariffs as a means to project blame onto previous administrations [6][14]. Consumption Trends - Current data does not show evidence of reduced consumer spending, with consumers remaining active despite tariff impacts [12][15]. - The perception of a tariff-induced recession is argued to be a political strategy rather than a reflection of economic reality, as GDP growth has been relatively strong [14][15]. Strategic Considerations - While tariffs may have negative economic effects, they could serve strategic purposes in trade relationships, particularly with countries like China [8]. - The discussion around tariffs and their economic implications has been influenced by political agendas, affecting how economic data is interpreted and communicated [14][15].