1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, US employment slowed, and Powell said short - term Middle - East tensions pushed up inflation. The Middle - East situation caused a sharp rise in oil prices, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts became more hawkish. The spread of the war is still uncertain. US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central - bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, with support at the bottom but short - term adjustment pressure [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, causing gold prices to rebound. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4521 per ounce, up 0.7% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4700, and the lower support level is $4400 [6] - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in silver prices. As of last Friday, the weekly gain was 2.9%, closing at $69.8 per ounce. The lower support level is $65, and the upper resistance level is $77 [9] 3.2 Weekly View - The reasons for the rebound of precious metal prices are the same as above. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, US employment slowed, and Powell said short - term Middle - East tensions pushed up inflation. The Middle - East situation caused a sharp rise in oil prices, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts became more hawkish. The spread of the war is still uncertain. US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central - bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, with support at the bottom but short - term adjustment pressure. The inventory and position data are as follows: Comex gold inventory decreased by 10,598.43 kg to 986,401.72 kg, and SHFE gold inventory decreased by 201 kg to 106,644 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 136,789.80 kg to 10,211,197.05 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 9,304 kg to 371,799 kg. This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 161,335 contracts, a decrease of 2,016 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,811 contracts, an increase of 1,775 contracts from last week. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and be cautious in trading [11][13] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data charts of the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), inflation expectation (10Y), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance - sheet size and its weekly change, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trend [15][17][19] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in March was 52.4, the expected value was 51.3, and the previous value was 51.6. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 21 was 210,000, the expected value was 210,000, and the previous value was 205,000 [25] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump said on Thursday that at the request of the Iranian government, he would suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days and that negotiations with Tehran were progressing "very smoothly." However, an Iranian senior official said the US proposal to end the conflict was "unilateral and unfair," lacking the minimum requirements for success and only serving the interests of the US and Israel. Diplomatic efforts have not stopped. - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that even if the current energy - shock - induced inflation only briefly exceeds the ECB's inflation target, moderate policy tightening may be needed [26] 3.6 Inventory - Comex gold inventory decreased by 10,598.43 kg to 986,401.72 kg, and SHFE gold inventory decreased by 201 kg to 106,644 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 136,789.80 kg to 10,211,197.05 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 9,304 kg to 371,799 kg [13][28] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 24, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 161,335 contracts, a decrease of 2,016 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,811 contracts, an increase of 1,775 contracts from last week [13][32] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (April 1), at 20:15, the change in US ADP employment in March; at 22:00, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in March. - On Friday (April 3), at 20:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in US non - farm payrolls in March and the US unemployment rate in March [34]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with all three major indices closing at their lowest levels in over seven months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more than 10% from its historical closing high on February 10, officially entering correction territory [3][4] - The S&P 500 index dropped over 2.1% this week, marking its longest weekly losing streak in nearly four years [4] Index Performance - The closing figures for the major indices are as follows: - Dow Jones: 45166.64, down 793.47 points (-1.73%) - S&P 500: 6368.85, down 108.31 points (-1.67%) - Nasdaq: 20948.36, down 459.72 points (-2.15%) [5][6] Sector Performance - Among the eleven sectors in the S&P 500, eight declined while three increased. The energy sector rose by 1.87% and the consumer staples sector by 0.78%. The consumer discretionary sector, heavily impacted by Amazon, fell approximately 3.1%, making it the worst-performing sector [6] - Major technology stocks faced selling pressure, with notable declines including Nvidia (-2.17%), Tesla (-2.76%), Meta (-3.99%), Microsoft (-2.51%), Apple (-1.62%), and Amazon (-3.95%) [6][7] Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing Middle East conflicts have significantly affected market sentiment, with investors showing reduced risk appetite. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) rose by 3.61 points to 31.05, the highest level since April of the previous year [3][6] - A warning from an Iranian security official indicated that any US ground operations in the region would provoke a response, potentially leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [8] Economic Indicators - The market is currently pricing in a 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October, with inflationary pressures from rising energy and commodity prices diminishing expectations for rate cuts [10] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for March was reported at 53.3, down from 56.6 in February, marking the lowest level since December 2025 [10] Commodity Market - Oil prices surged, with NYMEX crude rising by 5.46% to $99.64 per barrel and Brent crude by 4.22% to $112.57 per barrel. Since the conflict began on February 27, Brent prices have increased by approximately 53% [10] - Gold prices also saw an increase, with spot gold rising by 2.6% to $4491.78 per ounce, and silver prices up by 2.2% to $69.54 per ounce [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the global energy supply, with a sharp decline in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as inflation expectations and geopolitical risks [6][7]. - Different sectors in the market show various trends. For example, in the agricultural products sector, there are differences in supply - demand relationships and price trends for different products; in the energy - chemical sector, prices are affected by factors like the Middle - East situation and supply - demand balance; in the financial market, A - share markets have certain investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain [11][15][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On March 26, 2026, compared with March 25, 2026, among chemical products, methanol had the largest increase of 1.942% (from 3,089.00 to 3,149.00), and benzene had the largest decrease of 1.217% (from 10,105.00 to 9,982.00) [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **Middle - East Situation**: The attack on Iranian energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of attacks on Middle - East energy facilities. Iran has retaliated, and the conflict has severely impacted the global energy supply, with a significant drop in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries [6]. - **Fed's Decision**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a more conservative approach to future interest rate cuts, reflecting a cautious stance in the face of multiple risks [7]. - **China - US Relations**: China and the US will continue to communicate about Trump's visit to China [8]. - **Land Policy**: China is conducting a second - round pilot project to extend land contracts for another 30 years, emphasizing the protection of collective ownership and the prevention of "non - agricultural" and "non - grain" use of land [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under short - term supply pressure, but the international market has a tightening supply expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of long - term contracts at low prices, with a support level of 5400 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 5450 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a weak - oscillating trend. The supply pressure may increase in the short term, and the support level is in the range of 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton [11]. - **Peanut**: The peanut price is in a high - level oscillation. The supply is tight, and the demand is divided. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations, with a resistance level around 8200 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The pig price is declining. The supply is sufficient, and the market is pessimistic. It is advisable to reduce short positions [11][13]. - **Egg**: The egg price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is sufficient, but there is also support at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct intraday operations [13]. - **Jujube**: The jujube market is in a seasonal consumption off - season. The supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to conduct intraday range operations [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is in a strong - oscillating trend. The supply is slightly affected by the import quota, and the demand is improving. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a support level around 15300 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is rising, and there is an expectation of increased exports. However, attention should be paid to the risk of near - term contract correction [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is stable with a slight increase, and the first - round price increase of coke has not been responded to by steel mills. The price is in an oscillating adjustment [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply of double - offset paper is recovering, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, with a resistance level in the 4220 - 4230 area and a support level of 4180 yuan [15]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue high - level consolidation in the range of 1780 - 1950 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver are rising due to factors such as the tense Middle - East situation and the Fed's interest - rate cut signal. They are in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to risks [15][17]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are following the market correction. It is recommended to wait patiently for the price to stop falling and stabilize [17]. - **Alumina**: The domestic supply of alumina is large, but there are concerns about the supply of bauxite from Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips and be vigilant against macro risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel market's supply - demand structure is improving, but the steel price is slightly under pressure in the short term and is expected to have a small - scale oscillating adjustment [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys are strong, mainly due to the energy premium caused by the geopolitical conflict. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips, but be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has broken through the previous high. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on price corrections, with a resistance level of 161500 yuan and a support level of 158000 yuan [19]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 25, A - share indexes rose, and different stock index options showed different trends in volume and open interest. Trend investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can take corresponding strategies according to price changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: On March 25, the three major indexes oscillated and rose. The A - share market has investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain. It is advisable to control positions and participate in the rebound [19][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4] - Silver: Falls from the oscillation platform [2][4] - Copper: The rising US dollar exerts pressure on prices [2][8] - Zinc: Ranges sideways [2][11] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][14] - Tin: Monitor the stabilization of macro - sentiment [2][17] - Aluminum: Ranges within a certain interval; Alumina: Runs weakly; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2][20] - Platinum: Oscillates with a bearish bias, and attention should be paid to the retracement elasticity; Palladium: Oscillates with a bearish bias [2][23] - Nickel: There are contradictions between macro and the mining end, and short - term long - short games intensify; Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors suppress, while real - world costs provide support [2][27] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 940.00 with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00 with a decline of 1.30%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 15498 with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17246.00 with an increase of 3.47%. The trading volume and positions of gold and silver futures also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai gold decreased by 99 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 1,989,464 ounces. The spreads of gold and silver also showed different changes, such as the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 remaining unchanged at - 19.01 [4]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 95,590 with a daily increase of 1.66%, and the night - session closing price was 96250 with an increase of 0.69%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 105,601, and the position decreased by 1,739 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 10,599 tons, and the inventory of LME copper increased by 900 tons. The LME copper cash - 3M spread decreased by 6.47 [8]. - **Industry News**: Zambia aims to triple copper production to over 3 million tons by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah after a worker died in an accident on March 12 [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22935 with a decline of 0.17%, and the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3038.5 with a decline of 2.08%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc also changed [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 1354 tons, and the inventory of LME zinc decreased by 625 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread of zinc decreased by 3.97 [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16495 with an increase of 0.46%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk remained unchanged at 1898.5. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 1701 tons, and the inventory of LME lead decreased by 200 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread of lead increased by 2.75 [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 352,430 with an increase of 1.91%, and the night - session closing price was 354,680 with an increase of 0.69%. The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 33,699, and the position decreased by 2,195 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 408 tons, and the inventory of LME tin decreased by 25 tons. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread increased by 21 [17]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23860, and the closing price of the LME aluminum 3M was 3242. The trading volume and positions of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures all changed [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 135.60 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 42.68 million tons. The spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy also showed different changes [20]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 505.85 with an increase of 3.79%, and the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 368.55 with an increase of 2.52%. The trading volume and positions of platinum and palladium futures changed [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of platinum and palladium futures remained unchanged in some cases, and the spreads of platinum and palladium also changed [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,130, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,490. The trading volume and positions of nickel and stainless - steel futures changed [27]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, and some nickel mines in Indonesia and other regions have production changes, such as the planned restart of a nickel mine in Guatemala and production quota adjustments in Indonesia [27][28][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has eased for gold, and silver has fallen from the shock platform [1] - The inflation pressure is quietly rising, with US import prices seeing the largest increase since 2022. Wall Street has downgraded its outlook on the US economy, and Goldman Sachs predicts an increased risk of recession [4] - Under the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is "seeking survival by changing routes", and the exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu are approaching the target of 5 million barrels [4] - Trump is forming a technology committee, with 13 industry leaders such as Zuckerberg, Huang Renxun, and Ellison potentially being nominated [4] - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that if necessary, the central bank will raise interest rates at any meeting and will not "paralyze due to hesitation" on the Iranian issue [4] - Pinduoduo's Q4 revenue increased by 12% year - on - year, but its net profit declined by 11%. The management announced a full - scale investment in the supply chain, and profit margin fluctuations will be the norm [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: - Gold: The closing prices of various gold products (e.g.,沪金2602, 黄金T+D, Comex黄金2602, London gold spot) showed declines, with daily and night - session fluctuations. For example,沪金2602 had a daily decline of 9.55% and a night - session decline of 1.30% [1] - Silver:沪银2602 and 白银T+D had daily declines but night - session increases. Comex白银2602 and London silver spot had daily increases [1] - **Trading Volume and Positions**: - Gold: The trading volume of沪金2602 and Comex黄金2602 increased compared to the previous day, while the positions decreased [1] - Silver: The trading volume of沪银2602 decreased, and the position also decreased. The trading volume of Comex白银2602 increased, and the position remained unchanged [1] - **ETF Positions**: The position of SPDR gold ETF decreased by 4, and the position of SLV silver ETF (the day before yesterday) increased by 265 [1] - **Inventory**: - Gold: The inventory of沪金 decreased by 99 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex gold (in troy ounces, the day before yesterday) remained unchanged [1] - Silver: The inventory of沪银 increased by 2054 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex silver (in troy ounces, the day before yesterday) decreased by 1,989,464 [1] - **Spreads**: - Gold: The spread between 黄金T+D and AU2602 remained unchanged. The spread between 沪金2602 and 2606 contracts was not available. The cost of the long - December and short - June inter - period arbitrage for gold decreased by 0.87. The spread between 黄金T+D and London gold increased by 505.18 [1] - Silver: The spread between 白银T+D and AG2602 decreased by 99. The spread between 沪银2602 and 2606 contracts decreased by 414. The cost of the long - December and short - June inter - period arbitrage for silver decreased by 11.3. The spread between 白银T+D and London silver decreased by 2,872 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.12, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 6.91, the euro against the US dollar was 1.16, the US dollar against the Japanese yen was 159.22 (up 0.05 from the previous day), and the British pound against the US dollar was 1.21 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Iran rejected the US cease - fire plan, and there are differences in views between Iran and the US on whether they are in negotiation [1][3] - The inflation pressure in the US is rising, and Wall Street has a more pessimistic outlook on the US economy [4] - Saudi Arabia is adjusting its export routes due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz [4] - Trump is forming a technology committee [4] - The European Central Bank may raise interest rates at any meeting [4] - Pinduoduo's Q4 revenue increased, but its profit decreased, and it plans to invest in the supply chain [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of gold is 0, and the trend intensity of silver is 0 [4]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 305.43 points (0.66%) to 46,429.49 points, the Nasdaq Composite increasing by 0.77% to 21,929.83 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.54% to 6,591.90 points [1][2]. Technology Sector - The Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index rose by 0.80%, with notable gains from Amazon (up 2.16%), NVIDIA (up 1.99%), and Tesla (up 0.76%). However, Microsoft saw a slight decline of nearly 0.5% due to mixed market sentiment [3][4]. Semiconductor and Storage Stocks - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 1.21% to 7,967.74 points, indicating a strong performance in the semiconductor sector [5]. - In contrast, the storage sector experienced a downturn, with Western Digital falling by 1.63%, Seagate by 2.6%, and Micron Technology dropping over 3%. This decline was attributed to concerns over AI storage demand following Google's introduction of a new memory compression technology [7]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese assets saw a significant rally, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 1.86% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index increasing by 1.93%. Notable individual stock performances included Meituan surging by 14.43% and JD.com by 8.30% [8][9]. Commodity Market - Precious metals continued their strong performance, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.2% to approximately $4,530 per ounce and silver futures increasing by 2.6% to $70.41 per ounce. Gold stocks also performed well, with Harmony Gold rising over 5% [10]. - Conversely, international oil prices fell significantly, with light crude oil futures dropping by $2.03 to $90.32 per barrel, and Brent crude futures down by $2.27 to $102.22 per barrel, influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East [11]. Inflation and Interest Rates - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 7.6 basis points to 4.32%. Rising inflation concerns, driven by increased oil prices, have altered market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with no anticipated rate cuts for the year [12].

Group 1 - The current situation in the Middle East is viewed as potentially leading to a shorter conflict rather than a prolonged one, with expectations for de-escalation supported by various stakeholders, including the Trump administration [3][4][14] - Market dynamics reflect a belief in a more positive outcome, as evidenced by the relatively stable stock market and oil prices around $103 to $104 per barrel, despite underlying risks [4][6][7] - There is a noted complacency among investors regarding the risks associated with the current geopolitical situation, particularly in oil and equity markets [6][7] Group 2 - Traditional safe havens like US treasuries and gold have not performed as expected during this geopolitical risk event, leading to a narrow range of effective safe havens, primarily energy prices and the strength of the US dollar [9][10][11] - The bond market is influencing policy responses, with concerns about consumer pain points and the upcoming midcycle elections driving the Trump administration's desire for a positive outcome [14][15] - The market is currently underpricing the potential for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may occur if the conflict resolves quickly, despite inflationary pressures being a concern [18][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - A-share market rebounded strongly with over 5100 stocks rising, and the market turnover reached 2.1 trillion yuan. Military stocks soared, while the oil and gas sector pulled back [28]. - The bond market had a generally strong and volatile performance. Treasury bond futures rose, and the yield of long-term bonds declined. The money market remained stable and loose [17]. - The exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the US dollar rose, while the US dollar index also increased slightly [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, and the non-manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both lower than the same period last year [1]. - The social financing scale in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year [1]. - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively, all higher than the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The new RMB loans in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - The CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year [1]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in February 2026 was 1.8%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8% [1]. - The year-on-year growth rates of export and import amounts in February 2026 were 39.60% and 13.80% respectively, showing significant growth [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US government proposed a 15 - point plan to end the conflict with Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. Iran may get sanctions lifted in exchange [2][12]. - Trump said the US was in talks with Iran, and an agreement might be close, but he was not satisfied with the current arrangement [3][13]. - Iran started charging tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the number of ships decreased by 95% compared to before the conflict [3]. - The EU postponed the proposal to permanently ban the import of Russian oil [3]. - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation on March 25, with a net increase of 50 billion yuan [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - A large light rare - earth mine was discovered in Mianning County, Sichuan, with an additional resource of 9.6656 million tons of rare - earth oxides [5]. - More central banks are expected to buy gold in 2026 [5]. - Many banks issued risk warnings for precious metals [5]. - Turkey is considering using its $135 - billion gold reserve to support the lira [5]. - India extended the validity of the gold import tariff quota under the India - UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement until June 30 [5]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The US proposed a peace plan to Iran, and Qatar Energy declared force majeure on some LNG supply contracts due to missile attacks [6]. - Japan will start releasing its national oil reserve on March 26 [7]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - As of mid - March, most agricultural product prices in the national circulation field increased. Bean粕 had the highest increase of 6.82%, while live pigs decreased by 2.88% [8]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 24, the central bank conducted a 17.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 3.35 billion yuan. On March 25, it will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan [9]. 3.3.2 Key News - The central bank governor met with the CEO of DBS Group, and DBS will be the second RMB clearing bank in Singapore [11]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized promoting the relocation of central enterprises to Xiongan New Area [11]. - The US proposed a peace plan to Iran, and diplomatic efforts are underway to promote peace [12][13][14]. - The market supervision department will strengthen price supervision and anti - unfair competition work [14]. - The US private credit market shows risk signals, and the debt rating of a private credit fund was downgraded [14]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for an immediate cease - fire and peace talks in the Iran - related situation [15]. - Japan's finance minister will hold a bond issuance hearing in June [15]. - There were some bond - related events, including non - effective bondholder meetings and credit rating adjustments [15]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was generally strong and volatile. Treasury bond futures rose, and the yield of long - term bonds declined. The money market remained stable and loose [17]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, with some bonds rising and some falling [17]. - The convertible bond index rose, and the short - term Shibor rates mostly declined [18]. - The central bank and policy banks conducted bond issuance operations, and the yields and multiples were announced [19][20]. - European and US bond yields generally rose [20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index also increased slightly [21]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The issuance of panda bonds has increased significantly this year, providing more investment options, but most have no obvious premium [22]. - Credit bonds may face short - term fluctuations, but demand may be supported in April. It is advisable to buy on dips and moderately extend the duration [22][23]. - The new regulatory rating method for wealth management companies is beneficial to the industry, and the bank sector may be favored by low - risk - tolerance funds [23]. - There may be a liquidity gap of about 450 billion yuan in April, and the central bank is expected to use quantitative tools to address it [24]. - The market is currently trading inflation - induced liquidity tightening expectations. It is advisable to reduce positions and make strategic adjustments [24]. - It is recommended to participate in long - term bonds during adjustments, focus on short - term bonds, and pay attention to the narrowing of interest rate spreads [24]. - In the current environment, the bond supply has room to expand, and it is advisable to moderately extend the duration and diversify the portfolio [25][26]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On March 25, 184 bonds will be listed, 218 bonds will be issued, 143 bonds will make payments, and 300 bonds will pay principal and interest [27]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares rebounded strongly, with over 5100 stocks rising. Military stocks, green power, and other sectors led the gains, while the oil and gas sector pulled back [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [7] Core Viewpoints - The war situation continues to heat up, causing a decline in global market risk appetite. Stocks mostly fall, bond yields mostly rise, and the global economy faces increasing stagflation risks [3][10] - The expansion of the Middle - East war to energy facilities drives up oil prices, leading to soaring inflation pressure, increased market expectations of interest rate hikes, and joint pressure from high inflation and high - interest rates on the stock market [4][12] - Central banks in the US, UK, and Europe are cautious about interest rate policies. The Fed is more concerned about inflation than employment in the short term, with a low willingness to cut interest rates. The market's expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the ECB have increased [4][12] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declines. Stocks mostly fall, bond yields mostly rise, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. The US dollar index drops 0.71% to 99.6, non - US currencies show mixed performance, gold prices plunge 10.5% to $4492 per ounce, the VIX index slightly declines to 26.8, the spot commodity index closes down, and Brent crude oil rises 12.2% to $116.2 per barrel [3][10] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stocks mostly fall. The S&P 500 drops 1.9%, the Shanghai Composite Index drops 3.38%, the euro - zone stocks decline, and emerging - market stocks also fall. High inflation and high - interest rates jointly pressure the stock market. Central bank policies and the war situation continue to impact the stock market [11][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. Rising oil prices, hawkish central bank stances, and increased interest - rate hike expectations put pressure on the bond market. The bond yield curve shows a bearish flattening trend. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield rises to 1.84%, and the bond market continues to fluctuate in the short term [15][19][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.71% to 99.6, and non - US currencies show mixed performance. The offshore RMB fluctuates and closes flat, while the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc appreciate. The New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, peso, and real also appreciate, while the Thai baht, rupee, rand, and won depreciate [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold drops 10.5% to $4492 per ounce, and it is expected to remain weak until volatility decreases. Brent crude oil rises 12.2% to $116 per barrel. The spot commodity index closes down as other commodities are pressured by interest - rate hike expectations [29][30] 3. Hot - spot Tracking - The war situation heats up, and market risk appetite weakens. The conflict between the US and Iran affects energy supply and inflation, leading to increased central - bank interest - rate hike expectations and market panic [31][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: Trump threatens to limit Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours - Tuesday: Denmark holds early elections; Eurozone and US March manufacturing PMI are released - Wednesday: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's January interest - rate meeting are released - Thursday: The Norwegian central bank holds an interest - rate meeting; US initial jobless claims are announced - Friday: China's January - February industrial enterprise profits are released [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - If Dalio's "ultimate battle" view becomes a consensus in the financial market, it will profoundly impact future global asset allocation. If the US fails to control the Strait of Hormuz, it will be negative for the US dollar, US Treasuries, and even the US stock market. Conversely, if the US seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will be positive for the US dollar, US Treasuries, and support the valuation of the US stock market. The situation for gold is more complex. If the US seizes control, although inflation decline may restart interest rate cuts, it may not be sufficient to drive gold prices back into a continuous upward trend. If the US fails to control the strait, although the suspension of interest rate cuts will put short - term pressure on gold prices, the logic of reserve asset substitution may drive gold prices back up after inflation pressure is fully released [3]. Summary by Directory High - frequency Data Scanning - Dalio's "ultimate battle" view in the Strait of Hormuz, if it becomes a consensus, will affect global asset allocation. The US Marine Corps Expeditionary Force is expected to arrive in the Middle East in about a week and may seize Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz. The outcome of the island - seizure operation may be indicative of the "ultimate battle." This week (the week of March 21), the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.40% week - on - week and 22.42% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased by 2.40% week - on - week and increased by 1.12% year - on - year. In the week of March 13, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 1.10% week - on - week and increased by 2.11% year - on - year. The domestic cement price index increased by 1.64% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 200 tons decreased by 0.03% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased by 0.20% week - on - week; the rebar price index increased by 0.48% week - on - week; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills increased by 1.84% week - on - week. In the week of March 13, the production material price index increased by 2.00% week - on - week and 4.58% year - on - year [1][3]. High - frequency Data Panoramic Scanning - The report presents multiple charts showing various high - frequency data, including the relationship between US stocks and bonds, the relationship between gold prices and US Treasury yields, and the week - on - week changes of high - frequency data. For example, in the week - on - week change of high - frequency data, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.40% week - on - week, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 1.10% week - on - week, and the production material price index increased by 2.00% week - on - week [11][12][16]. Comparison of High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the year - on - year change of copper spot price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value (+ year - on - year change of PPI), the relationship between the year - on - year change of daily crude steel output and the year - on - year change of industrial added value, etc. [20][21][23]. Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The report shows charts of important high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, including the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, the first - week unemployment claims and unemployment rate in the US, etc. [88][90][92]. Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The report presents the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through multiple charts, such as the seasonal trends of daily crude steel output (ten - day average), production material price index, etc. [100][102][105]. High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report shows the year - on - year changes of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen through charts [146][148][151].