2026 年 03 月 03 日 期货市场交易指引 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 空 5 多 9 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 短期区间交易，关注 98000-106000 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆白银： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆橡胶： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏强震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2] - Silver: In a volatile pattern [2] - Copper: Inventory increase restricts the upside space of prices [2] - Zinc: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Lead: Lacks driving forces, prices are volatile [2] - Tin: Volatile adjustment [2] - Aluminum: Bullish operation [2] - Alumina: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: The market trend is rather entangled [2] - Palladium: Expected to consolidate [2] - Nickel: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, be wary of speculative attributes in March [2] - Stainless steel: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,147.90, with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 1,159.98, with a night - session increase of 1.31%. The trading volume was 194,710, an increase of 25,303 from the previous day, and the open interest was 150,146, a decrease of 1,496 from the previous day. The spot gold in London rose 1.88% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump stated that he would not stop the war until the goal was achieved, and did not rule out sending US ground troops to Iran "if necessary". The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months, and the price index soared to a nearly four - year high. Iran stated that it would not negotiate with the US, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1 [7] Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23,019, with a daily increase of 1.94%, and the night - session closing price was 23,927.00, with a night - session increase of 6.95%. The trading volume was 389,182, an increase of 31,572 from the previous day, and the open interest was 171,170, a decrease of 2,359 from the previous day. The spot silver in London rose 6.30% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 1 [7] Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,850, with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 102,280, with a night - session decrease of 1.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 326,580, an increase of 20,754 from the previous day, and the open interest was 574,994, a decrease of 3,504 from the previous day. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,975 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months. Hudbay Minerals obtained approval to expand the Copper Mountain mine. Japan's January copper and copper alloy imports increased by 13.51% year - on - year. Chile's January copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,850, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 3,308, with a daily decrease of 1.74%. The Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume was 186,884, an increase of 82,336 from the previous day, and the open interest was 95,630, an increase of 756 from the previous day. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 575 tons [11]. - **News**: Iran refused to negotiate with the US, and the Qatar LNG export plant was attacked, causing the European natural gas futures to soar [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [13] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,895, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1,960, with a daily decrease of 0.96%. The Shanghai Lead main contract trading volume was 60,587, an increase of 11,518 from the previous day, and the open interest was 63,962, an increase of 118 from the previous day. The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 1,888 tons [14]. - **News**: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 444,010, with a daily increase of 2.96%, and the night - session closing price was 416,600, with a night - session decrease of 7.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 462,899, an increase of 71,766 from the previous day, and the open interest was 49,947, a decrease of 5,845 from the previous day. The LME tin inventory decreased by 80 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Qatar energy was attacked and stopped LNG production, causing the European gas price to soar. Iran was prepared for a long - term war [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,465, an increase of 630 from the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,773, an increase of 29 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,180, an increase of 450 from the previous day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 124.60 million tons, an increase of 7.10 million tons from the previous day [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US federal appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request for tariff refund extension. Morgan Stanley warned that if the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, the Middle East crude oil would face a full - scale shutdown [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 626.50, with a daily increase of 0.44%. The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 463.65, with a daily decrease of 0.26%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 29,411, and the open interest was 35,729. The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 802, and the open interest was 14,360 [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Uzbekistan stopped gold exports. The US appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request to postpone tariff refunds [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 0, and palladium trend intensity is 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,890, a decrease of 670 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,385, an increase of 180 from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,088, an increase of 3 from the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula. Solway Investment Group planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia was between 260 million and 270 million tons [30][31][33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 3 日 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 白银：震荡格局 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 昨日收盘价 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盐涨幅 | 日 涨幅 | 0.12% | 沪金2602 | 1.147.90 | 1159.98 | 1. 31% | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1155. 17 | 资金T+D | 1, 142. 48 | -0. 05% | 0. 93% | Comex黄金2602 | 5296. 40 | 1.82% | 1 | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 5278. 26 | - | 1. 88% | 1 | 沪银2602 | 23019 | 23927.00 | 1. 94% | 6. 95% | | | 22369 | 白银T+D | 3. 47% | 23231 | 5. 38% | 价格 | Comex白银2602 | 94. 385 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-03 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-03 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美伊军事冲突不确定性增大，特朗普表示不排除"派遣地面部队" 观点分享： 美国与伊朗之间的军事冲突正快速扩大，各方表态与行动持续升级，局势走向高度不确 定。据央视新闻，当地时间 3 月 2 日，美国国防部长赫格塞思就针对伊朗的"史诗怒火"行 动举行新闻发布会。他确认，美军尚未向伊朗境内部署地面部队，但同时表示不排除任何选 项。特朗普则更进一步，对媒体表示不排除"必要时"向伊朗派遣地面部队，并称对伊打击 的"大浪潮"尚未到来。此后的公开讲话中，据央视，特朗普称，对伊朗军事行动可能持续 4 至 5 周，但他表示已做好"行动时间远超这个期限"的准备。特朗普表示，一个拥有核武 器的伊朗对美国来说是不可容忍的。美国继续在伊朗开展大规模军事行动。美以目标非常明 确，包括摧毁伊朗导弹能力，确保伊朗无法获得核武器。在国际层面，北约宣布不参与军事 行动。马克龙宣布提升法国核武库规模；法外长称美以对伊行动未经安理会审议，不具合法 性。英首相称不会参与对伊打击。伊媒称伊方未攻 ...

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：库存增加，限制价格上方空间 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：震荡调整 | 10 | | 铝：偏强运行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：行情走势较为纠结 | 13 | | 钯：预计盘整 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏强，关注底部支撑 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：偏弱震荡格局 | 19 | | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤： ...

万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.56%。个股方面，英伟达涨近3%，微软涨超1%，谷歌母公司Alphabet-C跌超1%。 当地时间3月2日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，大型科技股多数走强，英伟达涨近3%。 大宗商品市场方面，黄金延续上行，白银大幅回调，国际原油价格震荡上行。 美股三大股指涨跌不一 当地时间3月2日，Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指跌0.15%，标普500指数涨0.04%，纳指涨0.36%。 贵金属方面，黄金与白银市场呈现分化走势，黄金延续上行，白银大幅回调。 截至北京时间3月3日5:30，伦敦金现上涨1.01%，报5331.56美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货上涨1.96%，报5350.5美元/盎司。伦敦银现下跌4.34%，报89.673 美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货下跌3.37%，报90.15美元/盎司。 原油方面，国际原油价格震荡上行，布伦特原油期货站稳70美元/桶关口。 伊朗局势加剧欧美金融市场动荡 | 招标 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | li | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 1 ...

为什么这条消息要悄悄地丢到垃圾时间，连带着朋友圈的外贸老板都被炸醒了——这到底是美国的良心发现，还是又一次滑头操作？ 其实，这就是美国人自作聪明的典型表现，做事永远藏着掖着，不敢直面自己的失误。 说到底，美国突然撤掉对中国的芬太尼关税和对等关税，表面上看是给中国制造业松了绑，实际上更像是他们内部利益集团打架，法律派终于压过了行政 派。 美国海关这次突然宣布取消对中国商品的部分关税，你说，这到底是他们为了谁？ 是为了美国老百姓，还是为了那些资本大佬？ 你要是去义乌小商品城溜达一圈，估计能看到不少订单突然涌了出来，工厂老板们都在盘算着加班费。 洛杉矶的长滩港口也得忙起来了，原本积压的货物很可能会借着这波政策调整，一股脑地涌向美国市场。 对我们普通人来说，涨工资的机会说不定就藏在这些细节里。 可你别以为美国这次真的彻底服软了，他们搬起石头砸了自己的脚，但绝不会轻易认输。 真正让行业炸锅的，是他们留下的那个"黄金漏洞"——报关10天缓冲期。 只要你赶在2月24日前报关，哪怕只是放行，关税都能免掉。 结果呢？ 物流圈、报关行直接疯了，这哪里是政策调整，简直就是一场"生死时速"的豪赌。 那些错过时间点的进口商，估计肠子都 ...

兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚海外市场不平静，美股开盘就大跌，白银暴涨。一起看看发生了什么事情。 白银飙涨 2月27日晚间，白银暴涨超过6%，黄金涨超1%。 石油价格涨近3%。 消息面上，美国在中东的大规模军事部署令市场情绪紧张。 【导读】白银飙涨，美股大跌 2月27日晚间，美股三大指数大跌，道指一度跌800点，纳指一度跌约1.5%，不过截至发稿，跌幅均有所收窄。 市场避险情绪蔓延，美国金融科技公司Block的大规模裁员引发了人工智能将颠覆广泛经济领域的焦虑，美股开盘走低。 美国上月生产者价格（PPI）环比上涨 0.5%，涨幅超过预期，这主要受服务业推动。该数据发出了通胀压力的信号，可能阻碍美联储降息， 从而令股市承压。 尽管营收增长且第一季度前景好于预期，但英伟达连续两日的下跌凸显了市场对人工智能热潮下高估值个股的担忧。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场策略师称："美国自2003年以来从未在中东部署过如此多的军事资产，且迄今为止，华盛顿在如此大规模的集结后 从未撤军。" 据调解国阿曼称，华盛顿和德黑兰在周四取得"显著进展"后，将于下周继续谈判。然而，一位知情人士透露，美方官员对谈判进度感到失 望。 美国和伊朗陷入紧张对峙，双方互 ...

他虽承认私人信贷市场的扩张可能伴生一定过度行为，但表示目前尚未观察到足以引发宏观层面担忧的 系统性风险。与此同时，尽管近期就业数据表现稳健，米兰对劳动力市场前景仍持谨慎态度，认为现阶 段做出全面乐观的判断尚为时过早。这一立场进一步强化了其"尽早降息以对冲潜在风险"的政策倾向。 通胀压力疲弱支撑降息立场 这并非米兰首次呼吁大幅降息。早在2月3日，他便表示经济中缺乏强劲的价格压力，认为当前利率水 平"过高且具有限制性"。 米兰彼时称： 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）周四重申，尽管劳动力市场有所改善，他仍预计2026年需降 息整整一个百分点（即100个基点），并倾向于尽早行动。 米兰在接受福克斯商业网络电视台采访时表示： "我认为四次降息是合适的，而且我宁愿尽早实施，而不是拖延。" 米兰指出，当前货币政策框架面临的结构性挑战之一是银行监管过度。他认为，过高的合规成本抑制了 银行的信贷创造能力，导致信贷活动从传统银行体系向非银行机构转移。他称： "我们对银行的监管过度了，从监管角度来看，这使得银行向经济放贷的成本过高，结果导 致了私人信贷的激增。" 去年底，米兰曾在美联储实施25个基点降息时投下 ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 26 日星期四 Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.14%报 5183.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.95%报 89.21 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 0.65%报 1153.9元/克，沪银主力合约上涨4%报23365 | | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 25 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.43 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1097.62 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 28.18 吨，当前持仓量为 16079.74 ...