Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The main reason was that the unexpected increase in the US PPI slightly cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. The hawks and doves within the Fed have significant differences on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year. Gradual and small - scale interest - rate cuts may still be the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the accident - hit mine under Codelco is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity. The inventory accumulation in the domestic off - season is limited, and the near - month structure has changed from flat to a slightly B structure [2]. - Overall, the general recovery of the US September interest - rate cut expectation, the continuous alleviation of global economic growth concerns after the implementation of tariffs, the good results of the Trump - Putin meeting that may promote US - Russia trade and boost the risk appetite of global capital markets, and China's anti - involution and steady - growth policies will effectively boost the demand for the non - ferrous metal market. However, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value and social retail sales in July were slightly lower than expected. Fundamentally, there are continuous disruptions at overseas mines, the inventory accumulation speed in the domestic off - season is slow, and no large amount of US copper has flowed out. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high - level fluctuation in the short term [3][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - LME copper price on August 15 was $9,760.00/ton, down $8.00 (-0.08%) from August 8; COMEX copper price was 448.9 cents/pound, up 0.4 cents (0.09%); SHFE copper price was 79,060 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan (0.73%); international copper price was 70,180 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan (0.76%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.04 to 8.10, and the LME spot premium/discount was -$93.75/ton, down $24.20 (34.80%) [4]. - As of August 15, LME inventory was 155,800 tons, down 50 tons (-0.03%); COMEX inventory was 267,195 short tons, up 3,055 short tons (1.16%); SHFE inventory was 86,343 tons, up 4,428 tons (5.41%); Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 80,600 tons, up 5,100 tons (6.75%); total inventory was 589,938 tons, up 12,533 tons (2.17%) [7] Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level due to the unexpected increase in the US PPI cooling the interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, Codelco's accident - hit mine is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity, and the domestic off - season inventory accumulation is limited [8]. - As of August 15, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 589,000 tons, and the global inventory continued to rebound. The LME copper inventory was basically flat, and the cancelled warrant ratio remained at 7.4%; the SHFE inventory increased slightly by 4,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation in the off - season was relatively limited; the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.1 [8]. - In the macro - aspect, the US July PPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year and month - on - month, exceeding market expectations. The core PPI rose to 3.7%, much higher than the previous value of 2.6%. After the data was released, the September interest - rate cut expectation slightly declined. There are significant differences within the Fed on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year [9][10]. - In terms of supply and demand, most areas of Codelco's Teniente project have resumed production, but the affected area is a new area for capacity improvement in the next 3 - 5 years. The Panama copper mine has basically no hope of resuming production this year. The domestic spot TC has slightly rebounded to -$38/ton, and the mine - end interference rate is still rising. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. However, affected by the increasingly tight supply of cold materials, non - CSPT smelters have started to slightly reduce production. From the demand side, the construction of power grid investment projects has slightly weakened, dragging down the operating rate of cable enterprises. The overall domestic demand has slightly decelerated month - on - month but still has resilience year - on - year [11] Industry News - Codelco has restarted the underground mining and processing operations of its EI Teniente mine in Chile. Eight underground areas that were evaluated as safe by the mining and labor departments resumed production last weekend, and the smelter also restarted. Four other mining areas near the accident site on July 31 are still closed, and relevant investigations are underway. The eight areas that resumed production account for about 82% of the total production [13]. - Chilean state - owned mining enterprise ENAMI has officially launched an investment recruitment plan to attract investors for a $1.7 - billion smelter. After the renovation, the annual processing capacity of the smelter will reach 850,000 tons of copper concentrates, and the annual production capacity will be 240,000 tons of copper cathodes [14]. - The official data shows that Zambia's copper production in the second quarter declined, posing a risk to the goal of increasing copper production to 1 million tons this year. If the first - quarter production is not revised, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 4%. The production in the second quarter was affected by problems at four producers [15] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, LME copper premium/discount, SHFE copper inter - period spread, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, COMEX copper non - commercial net long position ratio, and LME copper investment fund net position change [16][22][24][28][32]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% for this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the April prediction, and 3.1% for 2026, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The global trade growth forecast has been raised by 0.9 percentage points to 2.6% for this year, indicating resilience in the global economy amid increasing uncertainties [1] - China's economic growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.8 percentage points to 5.6% for this year, and by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for India has been slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.4% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points for next year [1] - Developed economies' growth predictions have been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% for this year and 1.6% for next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% for this year and by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for developing countries has been raised by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0% for next year [1] - The Eurozone growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0% for this year, while the next year's forecast remains at 1.2% [1] Group 2 - The IMF warns that there are still widespread downside risks to the economic situation, including potential increases in average tariff rates and unresolved trade tensions stemming from the Trump administration [2] - Ongoing uncertainties may begin to suppress economic activity, while geopolitical tensions could exacerbate inflationary pressures and disrupt supply chains [2] - High debt levels, unstable public finances, and various structural imbalances continue to pose significant risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the global economic situation as "maintaining fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainty," with projected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 slightly increased compared to previous forecasts [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from earlier predictions [1]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow at rates of 4.1% and 4.0% in 2025 and 2026, with China's growth rate for 2025 adjusted up by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% [7]. Inflation Expectations - Global inflation is projected to decline, with rates expected to reach 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, although significant disparities exist among different economies [1][10]. - The IMF anticipates that U.S. inflation will remain above the 2% target level, while inflation in the Eurozone is expected to be more moderate [10]. Trade Volume Adjustments - The IMF has raised its 2025 global trade volume forecast by 0.9 percentage points but lowered the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points, citing increased uncertainty in trade policies [4]. - A weaker dollar is expected to amplify tariff impacts rather than mitigate them, with U.S. fiscal policies potentially offsetting some negative effects on the current account balance [4][5]. Fiscal Vulnerabilities - The IMF warns of increasing global fiscal vulnerabilities, with some economies, including Brazil, France, and the U.S., projected to face significant fiscal deficits amid historically high public debt levels [5]. - Concerns over fiscal sustainability may lead to increased term premiums, particularly in the U.S., tightening global financial conditions and potentially causing market volatility [5].

IMF预计2025年全球经济增长率为3.0%，2026年为3.1%，分别比2025年4月WEO的预测调高0.2 个和0.1个百分点。IMF称，这反映出由于加征关税的预期，全球经济活动提前的水平强于此前预 期。 此外，IMF预计全球整体通胀率将在2025年降至4.2%，在2026年降至3.6%，与4月预测相似，但各 经济体间的通胀水平仍将存在明显分化，比如IMF预测美国的通胀率将保持在目标水平之上，其他大 型经济体的通胀率则将更低。 IMF建议，全球政策需要通过缓和紧张局势、维护价格和金融稳定、恢复财政缓冲和实施急需的结构 性改革，从而带来信心、可预测性和可持续性。 2025.07. 30 本文字数：2561，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 在7月29日发布的最新《世界经济展望》（WEO）报告中，国际货币基金组织（IMF）将全球经济情 况描述为"在持续的不确定性中，保持脆弱的韧性"。 | Year over Year Q4 over Q4 2/ Difference from April | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook, indicating that the global economy maintains a fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainties [1] - Compared to the April forecast, the IMF has slightly upgraded the global growth outlook [2] Growth Projections - The global economic growth is expected to reach 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the April forecast, but lower than the 3.3% in 2024 and the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% [3] - The upgrade in the 2025 forecast is broad-based, attributed to strong preemptive actions in international trade, lower global effective tariff rates, and improved global financial conditions [3] Advanced Economies - For advanced economies, growth is projected at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 [4] - In the United States, the growth rate is expected to be 1.9% in 2025, up by 0.1 percentage points from the April forecast, with a slight increase to 2.0% in 2026 [4] - The Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with the 2025 forecast raised by 0.2 percentage points mainly due to strong GDP growth in Ireland [4] Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026 [5] - China's growth forecast for 2025 has been raised by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and significant reductions in US-China tariffs [5] - India's growth is projected at 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026, slightly higher than previous forecasts due to a more favorable external environment [6] Regional Growth Expectations - The Middle East and Central Asia are expected to see growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 [7] - Sub-Saharan Africa's growth is projected at 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026 [8] - Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see a decline to 2.2% in 2025, with a recovery to 2.4% in 2026 [9] Inflation and Trade - Global inflation is expected to continue declining, with an overall rate projected at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [12] - The IMF has adjusted the global trade volume forecast upward by 0.9 percentage points for 2025, while lowering the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points [11] Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East or Ukraine, may pose new supply shocks to the global economy, potentially leading to increased commodity prices and inflationary pressures [14]

在最新报告中，IMF对美国今明两年的经济增长展望为1.9%和2%。而欧元区近两年的经济增 长预期也上调至1%和1.2%。需要指出的是，这份报告并未涉及欧美之间初步达成的贸易协 议，美国将对几乎所有欧洲进口商品征收15%的关税，势将对双边经济都造成拖累。 综合央视新闻、第一财经等媒体报道， IMF预计今明两年的全球经济增长率为3.0%和3.1%， 分别较4月的预测调高了0.2和0.1个百分点。 需要强调的是，即便有所上调，2025年的全球 经济增速仍要慢于去年的3.3%，反映美国关税对全球经济的拖累。 主要经济体方面， IMF将中国2025年的增长率较4月预期上调了0.8个百分点，达到4.8%。 调整的主要原因，是为了反映2025年上半年中国经济活动强于预期，且中美实际关税仍比4月 预期的低很多。与此同时，尽管中国对美国的出口下降，但被对其他国家的强劲销售所抵消。 受到财政措施的支持，消费也在一定程度上对经济增长作出贡献。 北京时间周二晚21点，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布题为《持续不确定性下的脆弱韧性》 （Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty）的7月世 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has shortened the deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement by 50 days, expressing disappointment over Putin's continuation of the war [1] - Trump has threatened severe economic sanctions against Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine, which has heightened the urgency for sanctions as Russia continues its attacks on Ukrainian cities [1] - The market is reacting sensitively to these developments, with concerns over potential chain reactions from sanctions, including energy price volatility, trade disruptions, and increased geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - Russia, as a significant global energy exporter, has its situation impacting the energy market notably, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.06% to $66.50 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 2.01% to $68.47 per barrel [1] - The Russian Finance Ministry has reported that due to weak oil export prices, Russia's oil and gas revenue is expected to lose 4.47 trillion rubles by 2025, highlighting the uncertainty in the energy market and Russia's economic dependence on energy exports [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, but warns that trade tensions could overshadow this outlook, influenced by Trump's sanctions policy and trade agreements between the U.S. and EU [2] - The EU has reached a trade agreement with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the U.S., while the U.S. plans to impose tariffs on goods from Mexico and other countries, increasing global market uncertainty [2]

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes indicate that U.S. tariff measures will negatively impact global economic growth, which in turn will affect the Australian economy [1] - Currently, Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is in a state of stagnation [1] Economic Impact - U.S. tariffs are expected to create a drag on global economic growth [1] - The Australian economy is already experiencing low GDP levels, suggesting vulnerability to external economic pressures [1]

Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting took place in Durban, South Africa, amid concerns over U.S. President Trump's trade policies [1] - South Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana warned of multiple headwinds threatening global economic growth, including increased trade barriers and geopolitical risks [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% [1] Group 2 - This meeting is the third G20 finance ministers meeting of the year, with previous meetings failing to reach a joint communiqué due to significant disagreements among members [2] - The U.S., set to take over the G20 presidency in December, has opposed discussions on climate financing and institutional inclusivity, which are central to South Africa's agenda [2] - Godongwana emphasized the importance of revitalizing multilateralism through inclusive dialogue and collective action to address global challenges [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is entering a period of significant turbulence, with a consensus among economists that the outlook for the next six months to a year is increasingly pessimistic [3][5]. Economic Forecasts - The World Bank has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating that the 2020s may become the worst-performing decade since the 1960s [4][5]. - The growth expectations for major economies have also been downgraded, with the U.S. forecast reduced by 0.9 percentage points to 1.4%, and the Eurozone and Japan both adjusted to 0.7% [5]. China's Economic Outlook - The World Bank maintains China's growth forecast at 4.5%, but the country faces severe internal and external challenges due to trade wars and weak domestic demand [6]. Impact on Developing Economies - The slowdown in major economies like China, the U.S., and Europe is expected to have significant negative spillover effects on other economies, particularly developing nations [7]. - Developing economies, especially outside Asia, are increasingly becoming "no-growth zones," with their growth rates declining from an average of 6% in the 2000s to below 4% in the 2020s [8][9]. Trade and Investment Trends - Global trade growth has sharply declined, with projections for this year at only 1.8%, down from 5.1% in the 2000s, largely due to rising trade policy uncertainties [9]. - Foreign direct investment in developing economies has fallen to less than half of its peak levels in 2008, contributing to ongoing economic stagnation [10]. Fiscal Challenges - Developing economies are facing significant fiscal challenges, with an average fiscal deficit rate of nearly 6% since 2020, the highest this century, and interest payments consuming one-third of the deficit [11]. - Over half of low-income countries are now in high-risk debt situations, exacerbated by increased trade barriers and political uncertainties [12]. Global Economic Dynamics - The past half-century has seen positive forces driving globalization and economic growth, lifting over 1 billion people out of extreme poverty. However, current trends indicate a reversal of these forces, leading to uncertainty and potential economic regression [12].