《越通社》10月8日报道，世界贸易组织（WTO）在 10 月 7 日发布的最新报告中预测，今年全球 经济增长率约为 2.7%。今年以来，由于特朗普政府不断调整关税政策导致预测的不确定性，世贸组织 不得不多次调整贸易和经济增长预测。 （原标题：世界贸易组织预测今年全球经济增长约为2.7%） ...

当地时间10月8日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在2025年IMF和世界银 行秋季年会的前瞻讲话中表示，全球经济在多重冲击下展现出比预期更强的韧性，但增长势头正在减 弱。她指出，全球经济"好于预期，但差于所需"，当前韧性尚未经过全面考验，不确定性将继续成为新 常态。今明两年全球增长略有放缓，关税政策的走向正成为影响世界经济前景的关键变量。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint economic forecast report from five major German economic research institutions predicts only a slight growth of 0.2% for the German economy in 2025, highlighting ongoing structural weaknesses and the adverse impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade [1][2]. Economic Growth Outlook - The German economy has been in recession for the past two years, with stagnation observed in the first half of this year. Although government stimulus policies may lead to a potential rebound, widespread recovery is not expected due to persistent structural issues [1]. - The report emphasizes that traditional growth drivers, such as strong export growth and robust manufacturing, have diminished, indicating that future recovery will rely more on domestic economic activity supported by fiscal stimulus [1]. Impact of U.S. Tariffs - U.S. tariff policies are identified as a significant negative factor for both the German and global economic growth, with experts noting that the adverse effects of these tariffs are beginning to manifest [1][2]. - The assistant researcher at the German Economic Institute stated that the U.S. tariffs will continue to cast a shadow over the global economy, complicating international trade and leading to adjustments in global supply chains and production structures [2]. Risks to German Economy - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies poses a risk to the recovery of the German economy, particularly affecting its export-oriented sectors. Any escalation in U.S. tariffs could directly impact Germany's export industry [2].

Economic Overview - The global economy showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with total demand slightly rebounding and total supply remaining stable. However, the growth outlook for Q4 is mixed, with increasing uncertainties and structural characteristics becoming more pronounced [1][10][11] - Major economies exhibited divergent performances: the US economy improved, Europe showed weak recovery, Japan faced growth pressures, and India exceeded expectations [10][11][12] Inflation and Trade - Global inflation is decreasing, but the pace of decline is slowing and becoming more differentiated. In August, the US CPI rose to 2.9% year-on-year, while the Eurozone HICP increased by 2.1% [1][22][23] - Trade policies have seen a reduction in their disruptive impact, with the WTO raising its 2025 goods trade growth forecast to 0.9% [1][26][27] Financial Market Adjustments - The financial markets have undergone significant adjustments, with the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish stance and cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September. This led to a net inflow of $82.98 billion into emerging market securities in July and August [2][3][10] - The dollar index has been fluctuating at low levels, and global stock markets have generally trended upward, with the MSCI global index rising over 10% [2][3][10] Capital Flows and Investment Trends - International capital is returning to emerging markets, with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia and Mexico expected to continue growing. Emerging market securities are increasingly favored by investors seeking resilient economies [2][11][12] - The report highlights potential areas for deepening cooperation between China and Europe in trade, green transformation, investment agreements, and multilateral governance under the backdrop of Trump's second term [2][11] Fiscal Policies - Major economies are maintaining an expansionary fiscal stance, but fiscal pressures are becoming more pronounced. The US fiscal deficit for FY 2025 is projected to grow by 7.7% year-on-year [2][33][36] - The Eurozone's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 78.1%, indicating increasing fiscal challenges [2][33][36]

Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, global economic growth shows signs of recovery, with total demand slightly rebounding and overall supply remaining stable. Household consumption accounts for 55.4% of global GDP, with private investment at 28.1% and government spending at 16.5% [1][10][12] - Major economies exhibit divergent performances: the US economy is recovering, Europe shows weak recovery, Japan faces growth pressures, India exceeds expectations, and Russia encounters challenges [1][10][12] Demand and Supply Analysis - On the demand side, uncertainties are increasing, particularly in the US, where consumer spending may weaken. The EU and Japan also show signs of consumer fatigue. However, US investment may receive a boost, while other economies' potential remains questionable [2][6][18] - On the supply side, manufacturing is recovering, and service sector expansion continues, although US employment risks need to be monitored. Global actual GDP growth is projected at approximately 2.4% for Q4 2025, with an annual growth rate of about 2.1% [2][6][18] Inflation Trends - Global inflation is stabilizing overall, with a projected global CPI growth rate of around 3.1% for Q4 2025 and an annual rate of approximately 3.5%. The US faces a risk of inflation rebound, while other major economies experience a downward trend in prices [2][20][21] Trade and Tariff Policies - Tariff policies are experiencing a reduction in short-term impacts on global trade activities. The US has adjusted tariffs on various imports, leading to a slight decrease in the overall tariff rate. However, uncertainties remain regarding the legality of these policies and potential protectionist measures from other countries [23][25][26] - Global trade growth is expected to be around 0.7% in 2025, influenced by ongoing tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors [23][25][26] Fiscal Policies - Major economies are maintaining an expansionary fiscal policy stance. The US faces significant fiscal pressure, with a projected budget deficit of $2.911 trillion for the month of August, exceeding market expectations. The EU and Japan are also increasing their fiscal spending, focusing on defense and economic competitiveness [31][32][35][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that global economic growth expectations for Q4 2025 are mixed, with a projected real GDP growth rate of around 2.4% for Q4 and 2.1% for the entire year [1] - The report highlights increasing uncertainty on the demand side, particularly in the U.S., where the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has shown a significant decline, indicating a weak outlook for consumer activity [1] - Other developed economies, such as the EU and Japan, are also experiencing signs of weak consumer demand expansion [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, the overall trend is stabilizing, with the clarity of tariff policies under the Trump administration contributing to a phase of stability in global markets, which is expected to boost manufacturing activity [1] - Service sector activities are maintaining a steady expansion, but there are concerns about potential supply tightness due to the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market [1] - The report anticipates that global inflation will stabilize, with a projected global CPI year-on-year growth rate of around 3.1% for Q4 2025 and 3.5% for the entire year [2]

经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）23日发布中期经济展望报告，预计2025年全球经济增速为3.2%，较 今年6月预测值上调0.3个百分点；2026年全球经济增速将放缓至2.9%，与6月预测值相同。 报告建议，各国应在全球贸易体系中加强合作，在回应经济安全关切的同时提高贸易政策透明度和可预 测性。同时，各国央行应保持警惕，对影响价格稳定的风险平衡变化迅速作出反应。各国还应加大结构 性改革努力，推动生活水平持续提高，并释放人工智能等新技术带来的潜在红利。 经合组织今年6月发布经济展望报告，当时预计2025年和2026年全球经济增速均为2.9%，较今年3月预 测值分别下调0.2和0.1个百分点。 报告预计，由于高技术行业强劲投资增长的拉动效应被加征关税和收紧移民政策等抵消，美国经济增速 将由2024年的2.8%降至2025年的1.8%，并在2026年进一步放缓至1.5%；2025年和2026年，欧元区经济 预计将增长1.2%和1.0%。 报告预计，二十国集团国家总体通胀率将由2025年的3.4%降至2026年的2.9%，其中发达经济体今明两 年的核心通胀率预计将分别降至2.6%和2.5%。 报告指出，2025年上半年， ...

据路透社9月23日报道，经济合作与发展组织表示，全球经济增长好于预期，但美国加征进口关税 的全面冲击尚未显现。在最新的《经济展望临时报告》中，经合组织指出，企业迄今主要通过压缩利润 率与动用库存吸收关税冲击，但关税上调的全部影响仍在持续显现。 （原标题：经合组织称美国关税冲击全面影响尚未显现） ...

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is expected to drag down global economic growth due to tariff-related uncertainties, with full effects anticipated to manifest by 2026 [1][2] - The OECD's latest economic outlook report indicates that the impact of U.S. tariffs is beginning to show, with signs of reduced consumer spending in the U.S. and affected labor markets in countries facing tariff pressures [1][2] - Global economic growth is projected to be 3.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts, driven by increased manufacturing activity as trade partners rush to import goods before tariffs take effect [1] Group 2 - The OECD predicts that global economic growth will further slow to 2.9% by 2026 as the full impact of tariffs affects supply chains, labor markets, and consumer behavior [2] - The U.S. economy is expected to feel the effects of tariffs starting in 2026, with growth rates projected to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025 and further to 1.5% in 2026 [2] - The OECD emphasizes the need for effective international cooperation to resolve trade tensions and enhance economic growth potential [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to continuous drone attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, Russian diesel exports have dropped below 700,000 barrels per day, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices have soared. Russia is considering a diesel export ban, which may only target non - producers' exports (10% of total diesel exports), and will support European diesel crack spreads, keeping them high in Q4 [2]. - Oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and mid - term short positions [3]. 3. Key Points by Related Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.13 to $63.41 per barrel, a 1.81% increase; Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose by $1.06 to $67.63 per barrel, a 1.59% increase. SC crude oil's main contract rose 1.47% to 482 yuan per barrel [1]. - Trump said at the UN General Assembly that if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs, called on Europe to stop all energy purchases from Russia, and urged the UN to take anti - Russian oil measures with the US [1]. - The OECD predicts that global economic growth will be 3.2% in 2025 (previously 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). US economic growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025 (previously 1.6%) and be 1.5% in 2026 (unchanged) [1]. - Russia may extend the gasoline export ban and is discussing the possibility of a diesel export ban [1]. Investment Logic - Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have led to large - scale refinery shutdowns, a significant drop in Russian diesel exports, and soaring domestic fuel prices. Russia's potential diesel export ban will support European diesel crack spreads [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will move in a range; Mid - term: Short positions are recommended. Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].