Core Viewpoint - Tesla's upcoming second-quarter delivery data is expected to fall short of market expectations, but the recent launch of its Robotaxi may overshadow this negative news [2][3]. Group 1: Delivery Expectations - Baird analyst Ben Kallo maintains a cautious outlook on Tesla's second-quarter delivery, predicting 377,000 units, which is below the FactSet consensus of 390,000 units and also lower than the 444,000 units expected for Q2 2024 [3]. - Third-party data, including insurance registrations in China and wholesale data from May, supports the view that Tesla's delivery numbers will be below market expectations [3]. - The production ramp-up of the new Model Y at Tesla's four factories at the end of Q1 is believed to have continued into early Q2, potentially impacting delivery numbers [3]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Stock Performance - Following the Robotaxi launch, Tesla's stock surged by 8.2%, adding $85.4 billion to its market capitalization, although it experienced a pullback in the following days [2][3]. - Despite the two-day decline, Tesla's stock is up 0.2% for the week and has increased by 12% over the past three months, outperforming the S&P 500, which rose by 5.6% during the same period [3]. Group 3: European Market Challenges - Tesla faces pressure in the European market, with a reported 40.5% decline in new registrations in May 2025 compared to the previous year, dropping from 14,682 to 8,729 units [4]. - Overall new car registrations in the EU, UK, and EFTA fell by 27.9% from 19,227 to 13,863 units [4]. - CEO Elon Musk acknowledged that Europe is Tesla's weakest market, attributing the overall automotive market in Europe as being quite sluggish [4]. Group 4: New Model Launch Speculations - Kallo suggests that Tesla has yet to announce a more affordable entry-level model, which was previously expected to be revealed by the end of the month, raising doubts about its timely launch [5]. - The anticipated new model may be a simplified version of the Model 3 or Model Y, utilizing existing production lines, rather than a completely new design [5]. - Updates regarding the new model are expected to be provided around the time of the second-quarter earnings report in mid-July [5].