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上海瀚讯(300762):看好卫星互联网、数据链业务成长
HTSC· 2025-11-03 09:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.28 RMB [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in satellite internet and data link businesses, with significant revenue growth anticipated as military communication markets expand and satellite payloads and ground terminal products reach mass production [1][2]. - The traditional military product business is gradually recovering, and the company is solidifying its leading position in military broadband communication while actively expanding into new product applications such as 5G and drone data links [2]. - The low Earth orbit satellite internet business is projected to become a key driver for sustained high growth in the company's performance, especially with the upcoming dense launch period of the Qianfan constellation expected in 2026 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 131 million RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 86.92% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 173.34%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -19.52 million RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 50.27% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 53.39% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 305 million RMB, a year-over-year increase of 72.72%, with a net profit of -48.16 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 47.25% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 40.91%, a decrease of 20.08 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to changes in product delivery structure [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to slower-than-expected recovery in profit margins and revenue growth. The revised net profit estimates are 0.16 billion RMB for 2025, 2.31 billion RMB for 2026, and 3.21 billion RMB for 2027 [4][18]. - The report assigns a 2026 PE ratio of 77x to the company, reflecting its core positioning in the Qianfan constellation and its leading status in military broadband [4].