中信建投发布通信行业三季报综述研报称，2025年三季度，通信板块营收、净利润增速同环比均提升， AI算力板块表现亮眼，公募基金和北向资金通信行业持仓市值占比分别达6.87%和2.82%，均创历史新 高。目前申万通信PE-TTM为43.41，处于5年以来96.53%分位点，处于10年以来67.26%分位点。虽然随 着预期落地，三季报后板块有所调整，持续推荐AI算力板块，包括北美算力产业链与国内算力产业链 的核心公司。此外，建议关注AI应用板块，包括端侧AI的进展，以及前期涨幅不大、未来可能改善的 海缆及光纤光缆板块，军工通信板块，国内外巨头纷纷加码的量子科技板块。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.28 RMB [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in satellite internet and data link businesses, with significant revenue growth anticipated as military communication markets expand and satellite payloads and ground terminal products reach mass production [1][2]. - The traditional military product business is gradually recovering, and the company is solidifying its leading position in military broadband communication while actively expanding into new product applications such as 5G and drone data links [2]. - The low Earth orbit satellite internet business is projected to become a key driver for sustained high growth in the company's performance, especially with the upcoming dense launch period of the Qianfan constellation expected in 2026 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 131 million RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 86.92% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 173.34%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -19.52 million RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 50.27% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 53.39% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 305 million RMB, a year-over-year increase of 72.72%, with a net profit of -48.16 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 47.25% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 40.91%, a decrease of 20.08 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to changes in product delivery structure [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to slower-than-expected recovery in profit margins and revenue growth. The revised net profit estimates are 0.16 billion RMB for 2025, 2.31 billion RMB for 2026, and 3.21 billion RMB for 2027 [4][18]. - The report assigns a 2026 PE ratio of 77x to the company, reflecting its core positioning in the Qianfan constellation and its leading status in military broadband [4].

Core Insights - The SW communication equipment sector has seen a 31.4% increase in points since the beginning of the year, outperforming the broader market [1] - The computing power chain remains a key investment theme in the market, influenced by factors such as the release of DeepSeek R1, reciprocal tariffs, and North American AI expectations [1] - Since mid-April, capital expenditures from major overseas cloud service providers have exceeded expectations, leading to a recovery from the "computing power deflation" narrative, with core suppliers' stock prices reaching new highs [1] Industry Trends - There is an increasing certainty in the growth of domestic and international computing power chain demand [1] - The importance of networks in AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is expected to rise [1] - The acceleration of AI applications, such as Agents, is anticipated [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" policy guidance highlights areas of interest including digital infrastructure, marine economy, and military communication [1]

Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights the expected surge in AI hardware demand driven by the increasing capabilities of large models and diverse application scenarios by the second half of 2025 [1] - Key trends to watch include the growing certainty of domestic and international computing power chain demand, the rising importance of networks in AIDC, and the accelerated deployment of AI applications such as Agents [1] Group 1: AI Hardware Demand - The demand for AI hardware is anticipated to grow significantly as AI inference computing power requirements continue to rise [1] - The SW communication equipment sector saw a 31.4% increase as of August 8, 2025, outperforming the broader market [1] - The computing power chain remains a primary investment theme, influenced by factors such as the release of DeepSeek R1 and expectations surrounding North American AI [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Three main investment directions in AI are suggested: 1. New hardware technologies, with a focus on AI ASICs that offer lower costs and better power efficiency [2] 2. Domestic production, with the resumption of H20 deliveries and the ongoing improvement of the domestic AI chip supply chain [2] 3. AI applications, particularly the acceleration of terminal innovations and the growth of IoT device connectivity [2] Group 3: Telecom Capital Expenditure - Telecom capital expenditures are increasingly directed towards computing networks, with a projected 9.1% year-on-year decrease to 289.8 billion yuan in 2025 [3] - The cumulative mobile internet traffic reached 186.7 billion GB in the first half of 2025, marking a 16.4% year-on-year increase [3] - Key areas of opportunity include the accelerated deployment of 5G-A, advancements in 6G technology, and the growing demand for new types of optical fibers driven by AI [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [4][15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 353 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -124 million yuan, improving by 34.71% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue surged to 126 million yuan, reflecting an 84.41% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 13 million yuan, marking a positive turnaround [4][5]. Market Performance - As of May 5, 2025, the company's closing price was 21.27 yuan, with a total share capital of 628 million shares and a market capitalization of 13.357 billion yuan [3]. Business Developments - The company is significantly involved in the construction of the "Qianfan" satellite constellation, with 90 satellites currently in orbit and plans to launch 648 satellites by the end of 2025, aiming for global network coverage by 2030. The company is a key supplier for satellite communication systems, contributing to a projected revenue of 1.5 billion yuan from satellite business in 2024 [5][6]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 136 million yuan in 2025, 282 million yuan in 2026, and 444 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 209.4%, 107.9%, and 57.4% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.22 yuan in 2025, 0.45 yuan in 2026, and 0.71 yuan in 2027 [9][11]. Cost Management - The company effectively controlled its expenses, with total expenses of 65 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 11.3% year-on-year. The company is expected to achieve profitability in the coming year due to improved cost management and the anticipated growth in satellite and military communication businesses [9][10].