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日本人口结构逆向变异
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新生人口持续创新低,倒逼日本政府升级政策供给
第一财经· 2025-10-26 14:34
Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe demographic crisis characterized by a historically low total fertility rate and an aging population, leading to a continuous decline in the total population, which poses significant risks to the social security system and economic structure [3][4][5]. Population Crisis - Japan's total fertility rate has been declining since it peaked at 2.14 in 1973, with the rate dropping to 1.15 in 2024, significantly below the global average of 2.2 and the developed countries' average of 1.4 [5][6]. - The number of newborns in Japan has decreased for 16 consecutive years, with 2024 seeing only 686,000 births, the first time falling below 700,000, and a natural population decrease of 899,000, the highest on record [6][7]. - The aging population is exacerbating the labor shortage, with a projected labor gap of 11 million by 2040, leading to a record number of company bankruptcies due to labor shortages [6][7]. Contributing Factors - Economic pressures, including stagnant growth and high living costs, are major factors suppressing the fertility rate, with the average cost of raising a child exceeding 20 million yen [8][9]. - Workplace culture, characterized by long working hours and traditional gender roles, further discourages family formation and child-rearing [9][10]. - Social and cultural shifts, including rising individualism and changing attitudes towards marriage and family, contribute to declining birth rates, with a significant percentage of young adults expressing no intention to marry [10][11]. Policy Responses - The Japanese government has implemented a multi-faceted approach to address the declining birth rate, including financial incentives for families, improved childcare services, and reforms in work culture [11][12]. - Economic support includes one-time childbirth allowances and monthly stipends for families with children, with additional benefits for larger families [12][13]. - Childcare services are being expanded, with initiatives to eliminate waiting lists for daycare and improve the quality of care [13][14]. - Work-life balance reforms include parental leave policies and incentives for companies to support male employees in taking paternity leave [14][15]. - Local governments are also implementing policies to support healthcare and education for children, aiming to alleviate the financial burden on families [15][16]. - The government is also focusing on attracting foreign talent to mitigate labor shortages, with plans to increase the number of foreign workers and students in Japan [16].