以下文章来源于新潮 ，作者十一岁的新潮 新潮 . 南京大学新闻传播学院学生实践作品发布平台。 本文来自微信公众号： 新潮 ，作者：黄圣依、谢欣、王笑童、曾慧娴、陈梓茵，指导老师：白净， 编辑：刘珈宜，题图来自：AI生成 马家店村位于南通市如东县。村子南部，隔着田野，有一片偌大的制造园区，以纺织厂为主，由毗邻 的通州湾管辖。 10月3日，66岁的罗忠决定来这里碰碰运气。在此之前，他因年龄问题被多家工厂拒之门外。这次， 他直接骑上电瓶车，流连于各厂房前的安保处，四处询问是否招工。 "七普"过后，南通市65岁及以上人口占比升至20%，老龄化程度高居全国之首。其中，如东县60周岁 以上人口占总人数38.91%，已超过全国水平两倍。老年人口比例在农村更夸张。据马家店村书记李 玉华介绍，村子里，六十岁以上居民几乎占2/3。 庞大的老年群体中，罗忠这样的"超龄"求职者并非个例。李玉华表示，在马家店村，六十周岁以上的 老人有超过2/3实现再就业。村子附近的通州湾近期成立工业园区，急需廉价劳工，并且对用工年龄 没有严格设限。 "我来赚钱呀，年纪大了工资低点也高兴的。"与罗忠交谈时，他这样说道。马家店村的老人们"不服 老"，既受 ...

如何让每个人在变老后仍能找到存在的意义，这是老龄化时代留给人类文明的终极考题。在养老引发的跨越代际的社会转型中，每个人都将成为生活的重 构者。 "银发浪潮"，正在改写你我的生活。 数据显示，截至2024年年底，中国 60岁及以上人口 3.1亿人，65 岁及以上人口2.2亿人，占总人口的比重分别为 22%、15.6%，已进入中度老龄化阶段。到 2035 年，中国老年人口数量将超过 4 亿人。 3月23日， 在中国发展高层论坛2025年年会上，民政部副部长唐承沛在演讲时提到，中国老年人口规模已超过世界上绝大多数国家人口总量。未来10年 内，60岁及以上的老年人口将每年净增超过1000万人。 可见，我国正在经历一次规模大、速度快、持续时间长的老龄化进程。 退休不是人生的休止符，而是第二人生的起点，越发具象的生活命题让我们看到，"老龄化"绝非只是统计表格中的数字增长，而是与每个家庭息息相关的 生活必答题。 我们谈论养老，并非想要贩卖焦虑，而是当这件事无法避免地发生在我们的父辈甚至自己身上时，我们可以提供一种生活重构的可能性。这也让我们思 考，应该如何让"老龄化"从现实的社会压力转化为让人重新认识和开发自己的契机，成为 ...

"很多人说老龄化社会的抚养比会越来越高，社会养不起这些老年人，我认为这是错误的。在制度合理 建设下，人工智能会推动赡养生产率大大提升，远远跑赢老年人口抚养比增长速度。"11月13日，中国 社会科学院学部委员、原副院长蔡昉在太湖世界文化论坛·钱塘对话上作主旨演讲时表示。 蔡昉认为，关键在于通过制度设计，让人工智能赋能基本养老保险制度和银发经济，既可提高赡养生产 率，扩大养老资源，又可提高分享水平，让生产率增长的成果被全体居民包括老年人共享。 蔡昉指出，有人担忧老龄化加剧会导致"养不起"，但有关数据显示，2035年前我国赡养生产率年均增长 5.6%，高于老年人口抚养比4.6%的年均增速；若人工智能能像国际智库预测的那样，使我国GDP提升 20%，赡养生产率年均增速将超7%，完全能跑赢老龄化进程。 （文章来源：中国经营报） ...

Core Insights - The current investment boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is characterized by a "frenzy" in the stock market, driven by the belief that the costs of under-investing outweigh those of over-investing [1] - There is a recognition of potential bubbles in the investment landscape, categorized into industrial and financial bubbles, with the former expected to ultimately enhance productivity and societal wealth [1] - The need for guiding technology towards positive outcomes is emphasized, highlighting that productivity growth is not guaranteed by technological advancement alone [1] Group 1 - Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate, indicates that the AI investment surge is a rational response to the high costs associated with being left behind in the market [1] - Cai Fang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warns of bubbles in the current investment climate, suggesting that while there may be overheating, it can lead to technological advancements and increased productivity [1] - The consensus among experts is that technology must be directed towards beneficial outcomes to balance its creative and destructive potential [1] Group 2 - Cai Fang highlights the challenges posed by an aging population, noting that the burden of pension contributions and family care limits consumption capacity [2] - Michael Spence expresses disappointment if AI does not positively impact the "blue-collar world" in the next decade, indicating a need for broader applications of AI [2] - Li Lihui, former president of the Bank of China, states that the path of technology for good aligns with financial inclusivity, ensuring the safety and reliability of financial assets and services in the AI sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in China's population structure, highlighting the increasing proportion of elderly individuals and the declining proportion of children, which poses new challenges for economic development and social governance during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][4][9]. Population Structure Changes - The proportion of the population aged 0-14 is decreasing, while the proportion of those aged 65 and above is increasing, with 2024 statistics showing 15.81% for the younger group and 15.66% for the older group, indicating a near crossover [5][6]. - By 2024, 19 provinces will have over 14% of their population aged 65 and above, with some provinces like Liaoning and Shanghai exceeding 20% [4][5]. Regional Population Differentiation - The article notes a clear regional differentiation in population structure, with some provinces experiencing a high proportion of elderly individuals compared to children, while others have a higher proportion of children [8]. - For instance, Shanghai has a 65+ population proportion of 20.25% compared to 9.50% for the 0-14 age group, while provinces like Guangdong and Guizhou show a contrasting demographic profile [8]. New Population Issues - The article identifies new population issues such as negative population growth, low birth rates, aging, and regional population disparities that require a shift in population development strategies [9]. Population Service System - The article emphasizes the need to establish a comprehensive population service system covering all life stages, addressing marriage, childbirth, education, employment, healthcare, housing, and elderly care [11]. - Key tasks include promoting positive marriage and childbirth views, improving maternity insurance, and developing inclusive childcare services [11][12]. Utilizing Elderly Workforce - With the increase in life expectancy, optimizing the use of elderly human resources is crucial, as the average life expectancy in 2024 is projected to reach 79 years [14]. - The article suggests developing diverse job opportunities for older individuals and removing age restrictions in employment and social security policies [14][16]. Employment Training for the Elderly - There is a need to create a training system for elderly employment, focusing on digital skills and job readiness to enhance their employability [15]. - Community and family support systems should be established to facilitate intergenerational learning and skill development [15][16].

Core Insights - The global investment trend in artificial intelligence (AI) is significant, with predictions indicating that over 90% of the U.S. GDP growth this year will stem from AI investments [1] - The discussion at the Taihu World Cultural Forum highlighted the dual nature of AI development as both a revolution and a potential bubble, emphasizing that the current investment wave in AI is unlikely to cool down [1][3] Group 1: Economic Implications - East Asian countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea, face challenges such as low birth rates, labor shortages, and high aging populations, necessitating AI to enhance labor productivity and reduce input costs [3] - The ability of AI to align with China's high-quality development goals is crucial for its sustainable growth [3] Group 2: Institutional Support - The development of AI requires a supportive institutional environment to balance its creative and destructive potential, which can be achieved through reforms [3][5] - The need for institutional arrangements to ensure that the benefits of productivity growth from AI are equitably shared among all residents, including the elderly, is emphasized [5] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The projected growth of China's "support ratio" (the ratio of working-age population to elderly) is expected to outpace the increase in the elderly dependency ratio by 5.6% annually by 2035, indicating a potential for productivity to overcome aging challenges [5] - The urbanization gap in China presents a significant opportunity for labor supply and productivity enhancement, with potential reforms in the household registration system (hukou) capable of unlocking millions of laborers [7]

本文字数：1501，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025.11.12 作者 |第一财经 林靖 《中国统计年鉴2025》公布了2024年31个省份的人口出生率、死亡率和自然增长率数据。出生率方面， 2024年有14个省份的出生率高于全国平均水平（6.77‰），其中，共有10个省份人口出生率超过8‰， 分别是西藏、宁夏、贵州、青海、新疆、海南、广东、云南、广西和甘肃，主要位于西部地区和华南地 区。从人口自然增长率来看，11个省份2024年人口自然增长率保持正增长，主要是西部省份和东部沿海 省份，分别是西藏、宁夏、新疆、云南、广西、贵州、青海、广西、广东、北京和福建，人口自然正增 长省份比上一年增加了3个。 从数据来看，一些出生率比较高的省份，同时也是近三年来常住人口增长的地区。这些省份主要分布在 西部地区和华南沿海地区。 从人口迁徙趋势看，长三角、珠三角成为人口迁移流入的主要地区。一方面，我国人口仍在向长三角、 珠三角等发达地区集聚；另一方面，在各省域内部，中小城市、农村人口继续向中心城市流动。 根据第一财经记者统计，近三年常住人口增量前五的城市分别是合肥、贵阳、杭州、长沙和郑州。其 中，4个来自中西部的省会城市。 其中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aging is not a "black swan" but a visible "gray rhino" that is approaching, emphasizing the urgent need for a robust pension financial system to address the challenges posed by an aging population [3][5]. Group 1: Current Situation and Trends - China has the largest elderly population globally, with one in four elderly individuals living in the country. By 2024, the population aged 60 and above is expected to reach 310 million, and it will exceed 400 million by 2035 [5][7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the need to accelerate the development of a multi-tiered pension insurance system to address the rapid aging process [8]. Group 2: Pension Financial System Development - The pension system is undergoing significant changes, transitioning from a savings-based model to an investment-based model, requiring differentiated services and product development from pension financial institutions [8]. - A new wave of technological revolution, including advancements in AI and quantum computing, is creating new investment opportunities and demands for pension services [8]. - The low-interest-rate environment is becoming the new normal, necessitating strategies to enhance the long-term asset creation capabilities of pension funds [8]. Group 3: Constructing a Pension Financial Loop - A well-functioning pension financial loop is essential for converting aging pressures into economic development drivers. This loop connects national savings to support technological innovation and industrial upgrades [10]. - Long-term capital from pensions can address the capital patience issues faced by industries, enabling advancements in sectors like solid-state batteries [10]. - The development of industries supported by pension funds will provide better products and services for the elderly, enhancing their consumption potential and creating a positive economic cycle [10]. Group 4: Challenges and Solutions - Current challenges in the pension financial sector include insufficient tax incentives, limited policy leverage, and a lack of targeted policies for small and medium enterprises [12]. - Proposed solutions involve combining effective markets with proactive government roles, engaging families and enterprises in pension contributions, and optimizing the design of the three-pillar system [12]. - The integration of innovation, funding, product, and talent chains is crucial for developing new pension products and ensuring effective investment channels [12]. Group 5: Opportunities for Insurance Companies - Insurance companies are positioned to transition from risk providers to comprehensive lifecycle service providers, integrating various aspects of elderly care [14]. - Future strategies for insurance companies should focus on solidifying basic pension insurance investments, enhancing asset management capabilities, and creating integrated ecosystems that combine insurance and wellness services [14].

Core Insights - Liang Jianzhang, founder of Ctrip and a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, warns that if China does not intervene in its population issues, India's population could be three times that of China in forty years [1][4][17] - The decline in China's population began after reaching a peak of 1.41 billion in 2022, with projections indicating a further decrease to 1.40828 billion by 2024, marking three consecutive years of negative growth [6][7] - The birth rate in China has dropped to 6.77‰, with predictions suggesting that the number of newborns could fall below 7 million by 2025, exacerbating the already low total fertility rate [7][12] Population Trends - In 2024, the number of newborns is projected to be 9.54 million, while deaths could reach 10.93 million, resulting in a net population decrease of 1.39 million [7] - The total fertility rate in China has been below 1.0, leading to significant demographic challenges, including a shrinking labor force [7][8] - By 2050, China's labor force is expected to decline from 800 million to 750 million, impacting economic foundations [8] Economic Implications - The reduction in the working-age population will lead to rising labor costs, challenging the competitiveness of traditional manufacturing sectors in China [7][12] - Liang Jianzhang emphasizes that innovation relies on a sufficient number of young people, and a decline in this demographic could hinder technological advancement [10] Aging Population - The proportion of individuals aged 60 and above in China has surpassed 21% and is projected to exceed 30% by 2035, creating immense pressure on the pension and healthcare systems [13] - The social security system may face funding shortages due to the increasing elderly population [13] Comparative Analysis - Japan serves as a cautionary example of delayed action on population issues, having faced negative growth and severe aging since the mid-1990s, despite various government interventions [15] - In contrast, India has a younger population with a fertility rate of 2.05, which is nearly double that of China, positioning it for potential economic advantages in the coming decades [17][19] Societal Factors - Economic pressures, time constraints, and changing social attitudes are significant factors contributing to the reluctance of young people in China to have children [21][23] - Women face particularly difficult choices between career and family, compounded by societal expectations and workplace discrimination [23] Proposed Solutions - Liang Jianzhang advocates for reforms that support families willing to have children, including financial assistance, improved education and healthcare systems, and changes to workplace culture [25] - A societal consensus on the importance of addressing population issues is crucial for creating a favorable environment for childbirth [25]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of long-term care insurance (LTCI) in China as a solution to the challenges posed by an aging population, aiming to alleviate family burdens and stimulate a multi-billion dollar care industry [4][5][6]. Group 1: Long-term Care Insurance Overview - Long-term care insurance is being implemented nationwide in China, with pilot programs already in place in regions like Zhejiang and Hainan [4]. - The primary goal of LTCI is to reimburse care costs for individuals with disabilities or dementia, thereby reducing the financial strain on families [4]. Group 2: Funding Challenges - The main obstacle to LTCI's success is funding, which currently relies on the transfer of medical insurance funds and government subsidies, leading to inconsistent coverage levels across different regions [5]. - There is a need for innovative solutions to enhance funding, including shared financial responsibility between employees and employers, government support for residents, and utilizing dormant funds in personal medical accounts [5]. Group 3: Collaborative Approaches - A multi-faceted approach is suggested, involving collaboration between commercial insurance, charitable funds, and the establishment of a new framework that combines basic insurance with social supplements [5]. - The implementation of digital monitoring through big data is recommended to ensure transparency in fund allocation and prevent fraudulent claims [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - With improved systems, transparent regulations, and professional care services, the vision of "aging with dignity" in China can become a reality rather than a distant dream [6][7].