Core Viewpoint - The Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks the end of a 26-year alliance, potentially leading Japan into a "multi-party era" due to ideological differences and electoral challenges [1][10]. Group 1: Reasons for the Split - The Komeito party's call for stricter regulations on political donations from businesses and organizations was not satisfactorily addressed by the LDP, prompting the split [2][4]. - The appointment of controversial figures within the LDP, such as former Prime Minister Taro Aso and Koichi Hagiuda, has contributed to Komeito's dissatisfaction and loss of trust [4][5]. - Fundamental ideological differences exist between the conservative LDP and the liberal Komeito, particularly regarding constitutional amendments and nationalistic sentiments [4][10]. Group 2: Political Implications - The upcoming prime ministerial election in the Diet is critical, as Komeito's withdrawal means the LDP can no longer rely solely on the Democratic Party for support to secure a majority [6][7]. - The potential for increased political maneuvering among opposition parties, particularly the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People, could reshape the political landscape [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that Japan may be entering a phase of political fragmentation, similar to the 1990s, where no single party can dominate, leading to instability and challenges in governance [10][12].

Core Points - The upcoming election for the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is crucial, with five candidates competing amid a challenging political landscape marked by a "double minority" situation in both houses of parliament [1][8] - Public sentiment is mixed regarding frequent leadership changes, with some expressing anxiety over political instability while others hope for new leadership to bring about change [4][12] - The election process involves a unique voting structure where party members and supporters have a significant influence, potentially leading to unexpected outcomes [4][5] Candidate Analysis - Polls indicate that Sanae Takaichi leads with 28% support, followed closely by Shinjiro Koizumi at 24%, while the other candidates lag significantly [2][4] - Takaichi may need to moderate her right-wing positions to appeal to a broader base, while Koizumi must demonstrate policy stability despite his lack of experience in key party roles [5][6] - The influence of former Prime Ministers Taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga, and Fumio Kishida is critical, as their support could sway the election outcome significantly [6][7] Political Landscape - Japan is entering a "multi-party era," complicating the ability of the new LDP president to govern effectively without cooperation from opposition parties [8][10] - Historical context shows that Japan has experienced significant political shifts, with the LDP's dominance challenged by various parties over the decades [9][10] - The new president will face immediate challenges, including rising prices, stagnant wages, and the need to increase defense spending, alongside long-term issues like aging demographics and social welfare sustainability [12][13]