政治碎片化
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【环时深度】“像羊羔一样”跟着美国,“欧洲政治风向标”荷兰怎么了?
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-11-10 22:51
Group 1: Political Landscape in the Netherlands - The Netherlands has been in a caretaker government state for over half of the past two years, reflecting increasing political fragmentation and difficulty in forming a consensus [2][5][11] - The recent parliamentary elections were held early due to the collapse of the previous coalition government, with the Six Six Democratic Party and the far-right Freedom Party each securing 26 seats [2][4] - The political system in the Netherlands operates on a proportional representation basis, making it challenging for any single party to achieve a majority, thus complicating coalition formation [8][10] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The Dutch government's recent actions regarding ASML and the semiconductor industry have raised concerns about its alignment with U.S. interests, leading to criticism from various domestic and European stakeholders [11][12] - The intervention in the semiconductor sector has caused disruptions in the global supply chain, particularly affecting the automotive industry in Europe [12] - Public sentiment in the Netherlands indicates a significant portion of the population believes the country is heading in the wrong direction, exacerbated by the government's recent decisions [12] Group 3: Social Dynamics and Challenges - The Netherlands is experiencing social fragmentation, economic pressures, and debates over immigration, which are complicating the political landscape and consensus-building efforts [5][9] - The rise of the Farmers-Citizens Movement reflects new social tensions arising from the green transition and economic challenges, indicating a shift in political dynamics [7] - The diverse cultural background of the Dutch population, with nearly 30% having immigrant backgrounds, contributes to ongoing discussions about identity and social cohesion [9]
日本政坛,重大转折!
第一财经· 2025-10-12 11:56
Core Viewpoint - The sudden announcement by Komeito to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks a significant shift in Japanese politics, potentially leading to a "multi-party era" and increasing political instability [3][10]. Summary by Sections Reasons for the Split - Komeito's decision to leave the coalition is attributed to dissatisfaction with LDP's handling of political donations and a lack of satisfactory responses to their demands [4]. - The relationship has been strained due to differing political ideologies, with LDP being conservative and Komeito favoring liberalism, leading to fundamental disagreements [5][6]. Political Dynamics Post-Split - The upcoming prime ministerial election is crucial, as Komeito has stated it will not support LDP's candidate, which complicates LDP's path to securing a majority in the Diet [8]. - The LDP's reliance on other opposition parties, particularly the Democratic Party for the People, is now essential to achieve a majority, making the political landscape more competitive [9]. Historical Context and Future Implications - The dissolution of the coalition is seen as a pivotal moment in Japan's political history, reminiscent of the 1993 split that led to significant political upheaval [10]. - Analysts suggest that the current political fragmentation in Japan reflects a broader trend seen in Western democracies, where traditional parties struggle to maintain effective governance [13].
国际观察|26年政治联盟破裂 日本进入“多党化时代”?
Xin Hua She· 2025-10-12 05:17
Core Viewpoint - The Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks the end of a 26-year alliance, potentially leading Japan into a "multi-party era" due to ideological differences and electoral challenges [1][10]. Group 1: Reasons for the Split - The Komeito party's call for stricter regulations on political donations from businesses and organizations was not satisfactorily addressed by the LDP, prompting the split [2][4]. - The appointment of controversial figures within the LDP, such as former Prime Minister Taro Aso and Koichi Hagiuda, has contributed to Komeito's dissatisfaction and loss of trust [4][5]. - Fundamental ideological differences exist between the conservative LDP and the liberal Komeito, particularly regarding constitutional amendments and nationalistic sentiments [4][10]. Group 2: Political Implications - The upcoming prime ministerial election in the Diet is critical, as Komeito's withdrawal means the LDP can no longer rely solely on the Democratic Party for support to secure a majority [6][7]. - The potential for increased political maneuvering among opposition parties, particularly the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People, could reshape the political landscape [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that Japan may be entering a phase of political fragmentation, similar to the 1990s, where no single party can dominate, leading to instability and challenges in governance [10][12].
国际观察|26年政治联盟破裂 日本进入“多党化时代”?
Xin Hua She· 2025-10-11 13:21
Core Viewpoint - The Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks the end of a 26-year alliance, potentially leading Japan into a "multi-party era" [1][6]. Group 1: Reasons for the Split - The Komeito party's call for stricter regulations on political donations from businesses and organizations was not satisfactorily addressed by the LDP, prompting the split [2]. - The appointment of controversial figures within the LDP, such as Taro Aso and Koichi Hagiuda, has contributed to Komeito's dissatisfaction, as these individuals are viewed unfavorably by Komeito [2][3]. - The LDP's shift in focus towards courting other opposition parties, particularly the Constitutional Democratic Party, has further alienated Komeito, leading to a breakdown in trust [2]. Group 2: Political Implications - The upcoming prime ministerial election in the Diet is now significantly impacted, as Komeito has announced it will not support the LDP's candidate, making it difficult for the LDP to secure a majority [4]. - The potential for a more intense political struggle is anticipated, with opposition parties calling for unity to challenge the LDP's dominance [5]. - Analysts suggest that the dissolution of the coalition could lead to a political landscape similar to the fragmentation seen in the 1990s, where no single party can govern alone [6][7]. Group 3: Broader Trends - The exit of Komeito is seen as a significant turning point in Japanese politics, indicating a shift towards a fragmented political environment where traditional parties struggle to maintain control [6]. - The current political climate reflects a global trend of fragmentation, with rising populism and dissatisfaction with established parties [6][7].
连遭不信任动议,冯德莱恩为何左右不讨好
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-09-22 23:54
Core Points - The European Parliament is set to hold a vote of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen and her leadership of the European Commission, reflecting increasing political division within the EU [1][3] - The no-confidence motions were introduced by both the far-right "European Patriots" group and the left-wing group, highlighting a rare occurrence of simultaneous challenges to the Commission [3][4] - Von der Leyen's annual "State of the Union" address received mixed reactions, indicating a lack of consensus on key issues among EU member states [4][5] Political Division - The far-right group accuses the Commission of undermining European economic strength by pushing controversial trade agreements without member state approval, while the left criticizes its inaction during the recent Israel-Palestine conflict [3][4] - Member states are divided on energy policies, particularly regarding the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels, with Hungary and Slovakia opposing such measures due to concerns over energy prices [4][5] - The EU's internal divisions are further exacerbated by differing stances on trade agreements with the US, with a significant portion of the public viewing these agreements unfavorably [5][6] Reform Needs - There is a growing call for reform within the EU to address the fragmentation and inefficiency in decision-making processes, particularly the need to shift from unanimous voting to qualified majority voting in certain areas [10][11] - The rise of populist parties and political fragmentation has weakened traditional party structures, making it increasingly difficult for the EU to reach consensus on critical issues [8][9] - The EU's ability to adapt to changing political landscapes is seen as crucial for its future success, with suggestions for more flexible coalitions among member states to achieve specific policy goals [11][12]
【环时深度】连遭不信任动议,冯德莱恩为何左右不讨好
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-09-22 22:43
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming vote of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen and her leadership of the European Commission reflects increasing political division within the EU, highlighting the need for reform to bridge these divides [1][3][4]. Group 1: No Confidence Motion - The European Parliament will debate and vote on two no-confidence motions against von der Leyen from the far-right "European Patriots" group and the left-wing group, marking an unprecedented situation [3][4]. - The "European Patriots" group accuses the Commission of undermining Europe's economic strength by pushing controversial trade agreements without member state parliamentary authorization [3][4]. - The left-wing group criticizes the Commission for its inaction during the recent Israel-Palestine conflict [3][4]. Group 2: Political Fragmentation - Von der Leyen's annual "State of the Union" address received mixed reactions, indicating the fragmentation of EU politics, with various member states holding divergent views on key issues [4][6]. - The EU is experiencing a rise in populist parties and increased political fragmentation, making consensus more difficult among member states [8][9]. - The internal divisions are evident in the differing stances on trade agreements with South America, where some countries support the deal while others oppose it due to concerns over agricultural interests [6][8]. Group 3: Energy and Climate Policy - Von der Leyen announced plans to coordinate the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and accelerate the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels, which has garnered mixed support from member states [4][5]. - Some countries, like Hungary and Slovakia, oppose the phase-out due to concerns over energy prices and supply stability [4][5]. - The EU's energy and climate policies are under scrutiny, especially in light of the recent forest fires affecting approximately 1 million hectares of land [7]. Group 4: Trade Relations with the US - Von der Leyen defended a recent trade agreement with the US, claiming it secures the best possible outcomes for Europe, despite criticism that it may make Europe a subordinate to the US [5][6]. - Polls indicate that a significant portion of the population views the EU-US trade agreement unfavorably, with 52% considering it a "humiliation" [5][6]. - The internal conflict over the trade agreement highlights the challenges of maintaining a unified EU stance amid rising populism and political fragmentation [8][9]. Group 5: Governance Challenges - The EU faces governance challenges due to political fragmentation, making it increasingly difficult for member states to reach consensus on critical issues [9][10]. - Calls for reform of the EU's voting system, particularly moving from unanimous to qualified majority voting, have emerged as a potential solution to enhance decision-making efficiency [10][11]. - The need for flexibility and adaptability within the EU is emphasized as essential for its survival and effectiveness in the 21st century [12].
法国频换总理,症结在于财政困境
21世纪经济报道· 2025-09-11 05:43
Group 1 - The article discusses the appointment of former Defense Minister Le Cornu as the new Prime Minister of France, marking the fifth prime ministerial change in two years, highlighting the instability in French politics [1][2] - The challenges faced by the new Prime Minister include addressing high government debt, fiscal imbalance, and political fragmentation, which are critical for the sustainability of his tenure [1][2] - The article notes that the French government has been struggling with a rising deficit and debt rate, necessitating both spending cuts and increased tax revenues, which have led to public discontent [2][3] Group 2 - France's government debt has significantly increased over the past two decades, surpassing the 60% international warning line, with notable spikes during the 2009 Eurozone crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [3][4] - The article indicates that the French government's deficit rate reached historical highs of 7.9% in 2009 and 8.84% in 2020, remaining above the 3% international warning line in subsequent years [4] - The economic growth rate in France has stagnated around 1% since 2012, contributing to the frequent changes in the prime ministerial position and the ongoing fiscal challenges [4]