当地时间14日下午，日本首相高市早苗与自民党干事长铃木俊一、日本维新会代表吉村洋文等执政联盟高 层会面，正式传达了解散众议院、提前进行大选的意向。上任不到三个月，高市早苗为何急于解散众议 院？解散众议院将给日本经济社会带来哪些影响？ 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：高市早苗这一次解散国会进行选举算得上是一场政治豪赌，我 认为其目的是巩固执政基础。目前自民党与日本维新会组成的执政联盟，在众议院拥有233席，勉强过 半，在参议院是处于少数地位。目前这种格局，导致高市早苗政府在推动重要法案的时候面临重重阻力。 高市早苗希望争取更稳定的多数，从而摆脱对其他盟友或者是一些小党派的高度依赖。 0:00 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：高市早苗上台以后，其激进的经济政策、大幅提高防卫预算、 自民党内"黑金"丑闻不断，以及挑衅中国对日本经济造成的冲击，这些负面言行，已经激起了日本国内越 来越多民众的不满。不少在野党已明确表示，要在今年上半年召开的国会中对高市的这些行为进行质询。 为了规避这些不利因素，转移舆论焦点，高市决定提前完成选举，巩固自己的执政地位。 高市此举对日本社会经济造成明显负面影响 中国社科院日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been experiencing a significant decline, recently hitting a low of 159.45 yen per dollar, prompting warnings from Japanese officials about potential market interventions to stabilize the currency [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - The yen's recent depreciation is attributed to speculation surrounding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's potential early election, with expectations that his party, the Liberal Democratic Party, could gain more votes [3][4]. - The dollar-yen exchange rate has shown volatility, with a recent drop of 0.31%, settling at 158.61 yen per dollar [1]. - Japanese officials have expressed concerns over excessive currency fluctuations, emphasizing that any intervention would aim to prevent sudden market volatility rather than target specific exchange rates [3][4]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Responses - Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and top foreign exchange officials have warned against speculative trading, indicating that they are prepared to respond to excessive volatility [3][6]. - Former Bank of Japan policy board member Masayoshi Amamiya suggested that the central bank might raise interest rates as early as April due to concerns over Kishida's fiscal policies [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank's rate hike plans remain unchanged despite market fluctuations, with expectations for a potential rate increase around June [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts from Eurizon SLJ Capital and Societe Generale have noted that the yen's decline increases the likelihood of government intervention, which could lead to a sharp correction in the exchange rate [4]. - Observers believe that if the government intervenes at the right moment, it could trigger a significant upward movement in the yen [4].

在去年的临时国会上，执政党通过纳入其他无党派所属众议员，最终在465个众议院席位中获得233个，勉强达到过半席位。 据央视新闻， 记者 13日获悉， 日本首相高市早苗向自民党干部传达了将在23日解散众议院，提前举行大选的意向。 有消息显示，高市早苗12日已指示自民党的部分人士加紧进行推举众议院选举候选人的工作。 有分析认为，高市解散众议院可能导致政治真空，若执意进行，将清楚地表明解散众议院优先考虑的是党派利益，那么解散的合理性将受到 质疑。 ...