新华财经北京12月19日电在日元持续贬值的背景下，三井住友银行信托银行投资研究主管山口正弘 （Masahiro Yamaguchi）指出，当前日元下跌主要源于市场预期"实际负利率将暂时持续"。与此同时， 日元走软支撑出口企业盈利预期，推动日本股市延续涨势。 （文章来源：新华财经） 截至2025年12月19日，美元兑日元汇率已逼近157:1的历史低位区间。此前，日本央行已在12月1日释放 明确鹰派信号，称将在货币政策会议上"考虑提高政策利率的利弊"，引发全球市场对日本结束长达三十 年超低利率时代的广泛预期。 然而，正如山口正弘所言，汇率走势已成为影响加息节奏的关键变量。若日元贬值趋势失控，日本央行 或被迫在"稳汇率"与"控通胀"之间重新权衡，进而延缓紧缩步伐。 山口正弘强调，为遏制日元进一步贬值，日本央行行长植田和男在即将举行的新闻发布会上"可能需要 采取相当强硬的语气"。他同时提醒，若日元汇率继续走弱，"上调利率的速度将再次变得不确定"。 这一观点凸显日本货币政策当前面临的复杂局面：一方面，通胀压力与财政可持续性要求央行推进加 息；另一方面，过度强势的日元可能损害出口导向型经济，而过度弱势又会加剧输入性通胀并 ...

编辑 | 阿景 日本央行要动手加息了？12月19号的政策会议还没开，市场已经在赌25个基点的加息，这要是成了，可 是1995年以来头一遭。 植田和男最近讲话一套接一套，又是"条件成熟就加息"，又是"得慢慢来"，把市场胃口吊得足足的。 日本这宽松政策搞了快30年，从安倍经济学到黑田时代，负利率、收益率曲线控制，工具箱都快翻烂 了。 现在突然说要转向，肯定不是拍脑袋决定的。 文 | 钱钱 我翻了翻日本总务省11月的数据，核心CPI到了2.5%，刚好踩在2%的通胀目标线上，这算是给了央行一 个"动手"的理由。 上周跟在东京做外贸的发小打电话，他吐槽日元跌得连进货成本都快扛不住了。 10月份日元兑美元都跌到157.89了，进口的能源、原材料贵了一大截，国内超市里的牛奶、面包价格跟 着涨，老百姓怨言不少。 央行再不做点啥，输入性通胀真压不住。 不过加息这事儿，市场反应也挺有意思。 植田说"接近持续性2%通胀"那天，日元一下子冲到156，做外汇的朋友差点把多单平了，结果没半小时 又掉回158。 说白了，大家还是不信日本经济真能扛住加息，毕竟2020年疫情后GDP起起落落，复苏根基太浅。 加息信号背后，日元和市场的"拉锯战 ...

新华财经北京12月8日电 市场对日本央行下周加息的预期似乎更加不安，日债市场整体承压，10年期日债收益率周一（8日）盘中交易中 升至1.965%，达到2007年6月以来的最高水平。 周一亚市交易时段，30年期超长日债收益率涨3.9BPs，站上3.4%整数关口，再次刷新上周创下的纪录。盘后，日债继续下跌，2年期日 债收益率涨1.8BP至1.068%，10年期日债收益率涨2.6BPs至1.975%，再次刷新纪录；20年期日债收益率涨4.4BPs至2.964%。 | 投资者继续抛售日债整体承压 | | 12月8日 | | --- | --- | --- | | SYMBOL # | YIELD + | CHANGE # | | JPN 3-MO | 0.63 | -0.022 V | | JPN 2-YR | 1.068 | +0.018 A | | JPN 3-YR | 1.192 | +0.016 A | | JPN 5-YR | 1.456 | +0.019 A | | JPN 10-YR | 1.975 | +0.026 | | JPN 15-YR | 2.931 | +0.021 A | | JPN 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is set to introduce an economic stimulus plan funded by an additional budget, which is approximately 27% larger than the spending plan announced by former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba a year ago, highlighting her commitment to expansionary fiscal policy [1] Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - The proposed stimulus plan is expected to combine tax cuts and special account expenditures, resulting in general account expenditures reaching 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 112 billion USD) [1] - The additional budget size exceeds the 13.9 trillion yen proposed by Ishiba last year, indicating a significant increase in government spending [1] - The total value of the stimulus plan, including some already budgeted projects, is projected to reach 21.3 trillion yen [1] Group 2: Debt and Interest Rates - The increase in general account spending will necessitate a larger additional budget, which will involve more government bond issuance, further exacerbating Japan's already high debt burden [4] - Japan's total government debt is expected to reach 230% of its economic size this year, according to the International Monetary Fund [4] - As concerns over rising debt levels grow, Japanese government bond yields have increased, with the 20-year bond yield rising nearly 5 basis points to 2.856% [4] Group 3: Economic Context - The overall impact of the stimulus plan, including private sector spending, is expected to swell to approximately 42.8 trillion yen as Japan seeks to address multiple challenges, including persistent inflation [5] - Recent GDP data showed a 1.8% annualized decline in Japan's real GDP for the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, which supports Takaichi's push for a large-scale stimulus plan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese automakers has significantly affected their financial performance, with a total estimated loss of approximately 1.5 trillion yen due to tariffs and a further 700 billion yen from currency exchange rates, leading to a net profit decline of about 30% year-on-year for the period from April to September [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Impact - The combined net profit of seven major Japanese automakers for the April to September period was close to 2.1 trillion yen, marking a year-on-year decrease of approximately 30%, continuing a trend of decline for two consecutive years [2][4]. - The estimated impact of tariffs on operating profit for the seven automakers is around 1.5 trillion yen, with projections indicating that the tariff impact could reach approximately 2.5 trillion yen by the fiscal year ending March 2026 [4]. - Mazda's sales in the U.S. account for about 30% of its global sales, and the tariffs resulted in a profit decline of 97.1 billion yen during the April to September period, leading to a return to net losses for the first time in four years [5]. Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Subaru, which derives 80% of its sales from the U.S., faced significant challenges, with 154.4 billion yen in tariff impacts offsetting profits despite increased sales from new model launches [7]. - Toyota stands out among the seven automakers, experiencing a 5% year-on-year increase in global sales, achieving a record high, despite a tariff impact of 900 billion yen. Its final profit decline was limited to 7%, the least affected among the group [7]. - Honda has adjusted its annual net profit forecast downward due to semiconductor shortages, estimating a 150 billion yen impact on operating profit from the supply chain disruptions [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The expected exchange rate for the year is projected to be between 140 to 147 yen per U.S. dollar, while the current rate is around 154 yen, indicating a depreciation of the yen, which could benefit Japanese automakers [8]. - Analysts express uncertainty regarding the ongoing impact of tariffs, noting that companies differ in how they account for supplier tariff burdens, leading to unpredictable performance outcomes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent have stirred market expectations regarding Japan's monetary policy, emphasizing the need for the Japanese government to provide the Bank of Japan (BOJ) with sufficient policy space to stabilize inflation expectations and exchange rates [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Bessent's comments have been interpreted as external support for the BOJ to tighten monetary policy, increasing expectations for an interest rate hike [3][6]. - Following Bessent's post, the yen strengthened against the dollar, moving from 152.12 to approximately 151.54 [3]. - Despite expectations that the BOJ would maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting, Bessent's remarks have added weight to the view that a rate hike may be imminent [6][9]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Dynamics - Bessent's statements directly challenge the monetary policy stance of Japan's new Prime Minister, who advocates for low interest rates and has previously urged the BOJ to collaborate with the government to boost demand [7]. - The Japanese government is attempting to downplay the impact of Bessent's comments, with Finance Minister Katayama asserting that the meeting did not directly address BOJ's monetary policy [8]. - There appears to be a divergence within the Japanese government regarding the implications of a weak yen, with some officials viewing it as beneficial for the economy [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Japan's core inflation rate has remained above the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, raising concerns among policymakers about potential second-round price effects [9]. - Most economists predict that the BOJ will raise interest rates again in December or January [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that if Japan aims to correct the yen's weakness, it must consider monetary intervention or policy adjustments [10].

Inflation Data - In September, the US CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, marking the highest level since the beginning of the year[2] - Core CPI fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, which was below market expectations[2][3] - The month-on-month increase in core CPI was 0.23%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from August[3] Economic Factors - The increase in durable goods prices was 0.32% month-on-month, indicating ongoing effects from tariffs imposed earlier this year[3] - Labor market cooling and a weak real estate market contributed to the decline in inflation, with core non-durable goods and core services rising by 0.08% and 0.24%, respectively[3][4] - Despite a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, long-term interest rates remained high, limiting the rebound in core CPI[3][4] Future Outlook - The potential for a rebound in core CPI exists in the first half of next year due to the recovery of key factors and base effects[4][16] - The upcoming fiscal expansion may boost manufacturing investment and create jobs, impacting inflation dynamics positively[4][16] - The US dollar index may gain momentum from economic cycles and monetary easing in developed economies[4][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that if the Bank of Japan continues to implement appropriate monetary policies, the yen exchange rate will stabilize at a reasonable level [1] - The yen has depreciated significantly against the dollar, with a drop of more than twice that of other major currencies this month, reaching a low of 153.27 yen per dollar on October 10 [1] - Speculation about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has weakened, which is a key factor in the recent exchange rate fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership election may lead to her becoming the next Prime Minister, as she seeks support from opposition parties [2] - If the yen falls below 155 against the dollar, there is a high likelihood of an interest rate hike within two weeks, which the new government may accept to mitigate inflationary pressures from rising living costs [2] - Japan's consumer price index has remained above 2% for over three years, while real wages have continued to decline [2]

Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with a somewhat more complex rating, perhaps suggesting a mix of short - term and long - term considerations [1] Core Views - The medium - to long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged. However, with the entry into force of the first - phase Gaza cease - fire agreement and gold and silver reaching their integer - level target prices, the short - term upward momentum of gold has slowed, and silver's volatility has increased. There is a need to be wary of adjustments due to profit - taking by funds, and caution should be exercised at historical highs [1] Other Summaries Central Bank and Policy - Related - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Williams supports further cuts, believing the labor market may slow further; Barr advocates caution in cutting rates; Kashkari generally agrees with Barr; Daly thinks policy remains moderately tight after the September cut, and the Fed is expected to implement more cuts as part of risk management [2] - High - ranking Japanese official Takaichi Sanae has no intention of causing excessive yen depreciation, and it's unclear when the next interest rate hike will occur, but she is likely to be cautious. Yen weakness has both positive and negative impacts on the economy [2] - The central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo plans to build up its gold reserves during the gold price surge to stabilize the national currency [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated against major currencies, with the largest decline against the Australian dollar, which has risen by 2.2191% against the yen [1] Currency Performance - The US dollar has also strengthened against the yen, closing at 150.368, an increase of 1.941% [1] - Over the past five trading days, the US dollar has appreciated by 1.183% against the yen [1]