旧世界秩序破裂
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达沃斯风云:旧世界崩塌
投资界· 2026-01-27 08:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the chaotic nature of the recent Davos World Economic Forum, highlighting the shift in focus from long-term risks like extreme weather and biodiversity loss to short-term geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland and U.S.-Europe relations [4][5]. Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - The 2023 Davos Forum marked a significant shift in focus, with "geoeconomic confrontation" becoming the primary concern among world leaders, overshadowing previous long-term risks [5]. - The political dynamics surrounding Greenland have become a focal point, with contrasting lifestyles and political maneuvers creating a surreal backdrop for discussions [5][6]. - Tensions escalated as U.S. President Trump made conflicting statements regarding Greenland, initially threatening military action but later softening his stance, leading to confusion and unrest among European leaders [7][8]. Group 2: U.S. Interests in Greenland - The U.S. views Greenland as strategically important for military advantages, resource access, and geopolitical positioning, which could enhance its global standing [10]. - Greenland is rich in untapped resources, including oil, gas, and rare earth elements, which are crucial for U.S. manufacturing and technology sectors [10]. - Control over Greenland would significantly increase U.S. landmass and symbolize political power, positioning the U.S. as a dominant force in Arctic affairs [10]. Group 3: European Concerns - European leaders express concerns that U.S. control over Greenland would undermine their defense capabilities within NATO and diminish their influence in global governance [11]. - The potential loss of Greenland to the U.S. could set a precedent for disregarding national sovereignty, threatening the established post-war order in Europe [12]. - The current geopolitical climate has left Europe feeling vulnerable, with limited options to counter U.S. pressure without incurring significant costs [14]. Group 4: Economic Strategies - European nations are considering strategies to counter U.S. economic pressure, including the potential sale of U.S. dollar assets, which could destabilize markets [15][16]. - The EU has proposed tariffs on U.S. goods as a direct response to trade tensions, but such measures could also harm European economies [17][18]. - The article suggests that the ongoing geopolitical struggle may lead to a fragmentation of European unity, as countries navigate their responses to U.S. actions [14]. Group 5: China's Position - Amidst the turmoil, China has maintained a stance of promoting free trade and multilateralism, positioning itself as a stabilizing force in global discussions [19][20]. - The article highlights the growing interest in collaboration with China in sectors like AI and technology, contrasting with the aggressive posturing seen in U.S.-Europe relations [20].
“礼崩乐坏”的达沃斯
吴晓波频道· 2026-01-23 00:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the chaotic nature of the recent Davos World Economic Forum, highlighting the shift in focus from traditional risks like extreme weather to geopolitical economic confrontations, particularly regarding Greenland and U.S.-Europe relations [3][4][12]. Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - The 2020 Davos Forum was marked by heightened tensions, with leaders from Europe and the U.S. engaging in confrontational dialogue, reflecting a breakdown of traditional diplomatic decorum [4][12]. - U.S. President Trump's fluctuating stance on Greenland, from aggressive claims to a more conciliatory tone, created confusion and further strained U.S.-European relations [9][12][23]. Group 2: Greenland's Strategic Importance - Greenland is viewed as a critical geopolitical asset for the U.S., offering military advantages, rich natural resources, and potential for technological development, which could significantly enhance U.S. global standing [16][18]. - The control of Greenland by the U.S. would undermine European defense capabilities and diminish their influence in Arctic governance, as it is a key node in the North Atlantic defense chain [19][20]. Group 3: European Response and Strategy - European leaders expressed concerns over U.S. dominance and the potential loss of sovereignty, emphasizing the need for unity and a strong response to U.S. pressures [12][24]. - The article outlines two main strategies available to Europe: selling off U.S. dollar assets and implementing trade countermeasures, both of which carry significant risks and potential economic fallout [25][28]. Group 4: Emerging Powers and New Rules - The article suggests that as the old world order collapses, new powers based on independence and pragmatic cooperation will gain more influence in defining global rules [3][36]. - China's approach at the forum, advocating for free trade and multilateralism, contrasts sharply with the confrontational tactics of the U.S., indicating a potential shift in global power dynamics [32][35].