Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the supply measures for fertilizers in China as the spring farming season approaches, analyzing the price trends and supply conditions for urea, phosphate, and potassium fertilizers. Urea - In early November last year, approximately 600,000 tons of the fourth batch of urea export quotas were issued, boosting market confidence and leading to a price rebound of 250 CNY/ton [2][6] - Current urea factory prices in Shandong and Henan are around 1,700 CNY/ton, which is at historical average levels and acceptable for farmers [2][6] - Domestic urea production increased by nearly 1.5 million tons year-on-year from November to January, indicating that the export quota issuance was a strategic move for supply assurance [2][6] - Daily production capacity is expected to remain above 210,000 tons, close to historical highs, ensuring sufficient supply for the spring farming season [2][6] - There is a need to prevent speculation in urea exports to avoid overlapping demand between spring and summer fertilization [2][6] Phosphate - The high price of sulfur is putting pressure on phosphate supply, but it also indicates a high operating rate of phosphate production, which is a positive sign for supply [3][7] - A series of supply assurance measures for phosphate were introduced in late December, successfully curbing rapid price increases and managing expectations [3][7] - The most significant measure is the suspension of exports until the end of August, as China relies on exports for over 30% of its phosphate supply [3][7] - The supply-demand relationship for phosphate is expected to become more relaxed, ensuring adequate supply for spring farming [3][7] Potassium - Key supply measures for potassium include signing large import contracts for the first half of the year and holding a supply and price stabilization meeting on January 27 [4][8] - The China Inorganic Salt Industry Association predicts that domestic potassium supply will reach 22 million tons this year, an increase of nearly 2 million tons from the previous year [4][8] - The expected monthly import volume for potassium in the first quarter is likely to exceed 1.4 million tons, which is about 700,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4][8] - Overall, the supply measures for fertilizers are comprehensive and effective, with a positive outlook for supply stability [4][8]