智能体创收市值法
Search documents
【重磅深度】Robotaxi正重塑汽车出行市场
东吴汽车黄细里团队· 2025-09-23 12:25
Core Viewpoints - Robotaxi represents a fundamental technological innovation that transforms the experience of shared mobility, reshaping the business model, competitive landscape, and profit distribution within the automotive shared mobility market [2][8] - The historical review of traditional taxis and ride-hailing services indicates that while ride-hailing alleviated some pain points, it did not fundamentally change the market dynamics, leading to over-supply and profitability challenges for drivers, taxi companies, and platforms [3][8] Robotaxi Breakthrough - Robotaxi serves as a crucial intelligent agent in the AI era, with its primary task being the safe transportation of passengers from point A to B. Its future potential lies in leveraging the "third mobile space" advantage, providing standardized driving experiences and allowing passengers to utilize travel time for work or consumption [4][8] - The commercialization of Robotaxi is driven by advancements in Level 4 autonomous driving technology, improved policy frameworks, and decreasing hardware costs. For instance, the BOM of Baidu's sixth-generation vehicle has dropped to 204,600 yuan, and the price of lidar sensors has fallen to around 200 USD [4][8] Market Size and Growth Projections - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to reach 83.1 billion yuan by 2030 (with an estimated 500,000 Robotaxis) and exceed 709.6 billion yuan by 2035 (with an estimated 2.5 million Robotaxis), indicating a significant growth potential in the shared mobility sector [4][8] Valuation Methodology - The valuation of Robotaxi should consider the "intelligent agent revenue valuation method," where the revenue-generating capacity is determined by the number of intelligent agents and their capability levels. The higher the capability level of a Robotaxi, the greater its revenue potential [5][9] Investment Targets in the Robotaxi Industry Chain - The Robotaxi industry chain is identified as the best investment theme in the AI smart vehicle sector over the next five years, categorized into several segments: 1. Integrated models: Tesla, XPeng Motors, Qianli Technology 2. Technology providers with operational revenue sharing: Horizon Robotics, Baidu, Pony.ai, WeRide 3. Traditional ride-hailing companies transitioning: Didi Chuxing, Cao Cao Mobility 4. Vehicle manufacturers: BAIC BluePark, GAC Group, SAIC Group 5. Core hardware suppliers: various companies providing sensors, chips, and other components [6][9]