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科技溢价却难掩疲软,沃尔玛悬了?
美股研究社· 2026-01-15 10:35
Core Viewpoint - Walmart's stock surged to an all-time high following its partnership with Alphabet, aimed at transforming into an "AI-driven e-commerce" model and enhancing delivery efficiency through drone services [1][3]. Group 1: Partnership and Strategic Initiatives - The collaboration with Google's Gemini will allow users to interact directly with Walmart's backend for product inquiries, discounts, and purchases without leaving the interface [3]. - Walmart plans to implement autonomous drone delivery technology, targeting a delivery time of under 30 minutes to capture market share from Amazon and reduce delivery costs [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - Since September 2024, Walmart's total stock return has increased by 50%, primarily driven by valuation multiple expansion, while earnings grew only by 8% during the same period [1]. - Walmart's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 46 times, with a free cash flow (FCF) valuation multiple reaching 62 times, reflecting a historical peak in valuation premium compared to the Nasdaq 100 index [3][9]. - Despite a stagnant sales growth of zero over the past five years, Walmart's market capitalization has reached $940 billion, with an enterprise value exceeding $1 trillion [9]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Increased R&D expenditures and service fees to Google for transactions on the new platform may impact profitability [5]. - There is a risk of losing brand loyalty and impulse purchase revenue if consumers shift to the Gemini platform instead of using Walmart's own app or physical stores [5]. - The high valuation premium raises concerns about the sustainability of Walmart's stock price, especially in light of the recent downturn in tech sector sentiment [11][13].