来源：美股研究社 在宣布与Alphabet达成合作后，沃尔玛（WMT）飙升至历史新高。 双方合作旨在借助 Gemini 推动公司向"智能体驱动型电商"转型，并通过 Wing 无人机配送服务缩短配 送时效。 尽管上述举措前景向好，但沃尔玛也需为此付出相应成本。 一方面，公司研发支出将大幅增加；另一方面，通过该平台达成的每一笔交易，都需要向谷歌支付相应 服务费。 自 2024 年9月以来，该公司股票的总回报率已攀升 50%。然而，这一涨幅主要源于估值倍数扩张，同 期公司盈利仅增长 8%。 估值倍数的提升，使得沃尔玛相对于纳斯达克 100 指数平均水平的估值溢价达到历史峰值，当前市盈率 （PE）高达 46 倍，自由现金流估值倍数（FCF）更是达到 62 倍。 考虑到过去五年沃尔玛实际销售额零增长的基本面，投资者当前的追捧，似乎是在押注一场难以实现的 业绩反转。 沃尔玛与谷歌 Gemini 的合作，将允许用户直接通过对话界面接入零售商后台系统，完成商品查询、优 惠核销及下单支付等全流程操作，无需跳转至其他页面。 通过将沃尔玛库存数据与 Gemini 深度整合，用户可基于自身购买记录获得个性化推荐，将商品加入现 有购物 ...

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's stock surged to an all-time high following its partnership with Alphabet, aimed at transforming into an "AI-driven e-commerce" model and enhancing delivery efficiency through drone services [1][3]. Group 1: Partnership and Strategic Initiatives - The collaboration with Google's Gemini will allow users to interact directly with Walmart's backend for product inquiries, discounts, and purchases without leaving the interface [3]. - Walmart plans to implement autonomous drone delivery technology, targeting a delivery time of under 30 minutes to capture market share from Amazon and reduce delivery costs [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - Since September 2024, Walmart's total stock return has increased by 50%, primarily driven by valuation multiple expansion, while earnings grew only by 8% during the same period [1]. - Walmart's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 46 times, with a free cash flow (FCF) valuation multiple reaching 62 times, reflecting a historical peak in valuation premium compared to the Nasdaq 100 index [3][9]. - Despite a stagnant sales growth of zero over the past five years, Walmart's market capitalization has reached $940 billion, with an enterprise value exceeding $1 trillion [9]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Increased R&D expenditures and service fees to Google for transactions on the new platform may impact profitability [5]. - There is a risk of losing brand loyalty and impulse purchase revenue if consumers shift to the Gemini platform instead of using Walmart's own app or physical stores [5]. - The high valuation premium raises concerns about the sustainability of Walmart's stock price, especially in light of the recent downturn in tech sector sentiment [11][13].