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星宇股份(601799):星宇股份成长复盘及展望
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 10:24
Core Viewpoint - Xingyu Co., Ltd. has demonstrated excellent growth in revenue and profit since its listing, establishing itself as a leading independent automotive lighting company through customer expansion and product upgrades [1] Group 1: Growth Phases - The growth of Xingyu can be divided into four phases: late sedan cycle (2007-2011), early SUV cycle (2012-2016), late SUV cycle (2017-2020), and new energy cycle (2021-2025) [1][2][3] - In the late sedan cycle, Xingyu's revenue and profitability increased, driven primarily by major customers such as Volkswagen and Toyota [1] - During the early SUV cycle, revenue growth remained stable, but profitability faced pressure due to customer price reductions and rising costs [2] - In the late SUV cycle, Xingyu benefited from both product and customer cycles, with revenue and profit growth outpacing revenue growth due to LED upgrades [2] - The new energy cycle has seen a shift in the domestic passenger car market, with a slowdown in revenue growth in 2021-2022, but a return to growth expected in 2023-2024 [2] Group 2: Profitability and Customer Structure - Compared to the peak net profit margin during the LED boom in 2019-2020, the company's net profit margin has stabilized despite a slight decline in recent years [3] - The customer structure has shifted from primarily joint ventures to domestic brands such as Chery and Li Auto, benefiting from increased sales [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The smart lighting cycle (2026-2030) is expected to drive continuous upgrades in automotive lighting, increasing average selling prices (ASP) and industry growth [3] - Xingyu's competitive position has strengthened due to high barriers to entry in the lighting industry, with deep partnerships with leading clients in the new energy sector [3] - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, which is anticipated to contribute to additional revenue growth [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Xingyu from 2025 to 2027 are 1.759 billion, 2.199 billion, and 2.698 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 6.16, 7.70, and 9.44 yuan [3]