曲线平陡切换
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国债期货:区间震荡延续,曲线平陡切换频繁
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 02:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The treasury bond futures market continues to experience range-bound oscillations, with frequent switches between flat and steep yield curves [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - On May 14, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year主力合约 down 0.23%, 0.12%, 0.13%, and 0.05% respectively [2] - The treasury bond futures index was 0.22. The volume-price factor was bearish, while the fundamental factor was bullish. Without leverage, the cumulative returns of the strategy were 0.11% in the past 20 days, -0.72% in the past 60 days, 0.30% in the past 120 days, and 1.52% in the past 240 days [2] - The A-share market opened higher and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.12%. Over 3,200 stocks declined [2] - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.4050%, down 0.1bp from the previous trading day; 7-day shibor was at 1.5010%, up 1.1bp; 14-day shibor was at 1.5360%, down 2.0bp; 1-month shibor was at 1.6390%, down 0.8bp [2] 3.2 Market Data - The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the percentage changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures主力合约 on May 14 are presented in a table [3] - The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year active CTD bonds and their corresponding IRRs are provided, with the current R007 at approximately 1.5337% [3] 3.3 Money and Bond Markets - On May 14, the interbank pledged repo market traded 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.91%. Overnight, 7-day, 14-day, and 1-month repo rates all declined compared to the previous trading day [4] - Treasury bond yield curves showed mixed movements, with 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields rising and 30Y yield falling. Credit bond yield curves also showed mixed movements [4] 3.4 Net Long Position Changes - By institutional type, private funds, foreign investors, and wealth management subsidiaries all reduced their net long positions on a daily and weekly basis. Daily changes were -2.69%, -10.17%, and -8.78% respectively; weekly changes were -6.12%, -15.87%, and -17.32% respectively [6] 3.5 Macro and Industry News - On May 14, the central bank conducted 9.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before. With 19.55 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 10.35 billion yuan [8] 3.6 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral stance [9]