国债期货区间震荡为主 核心观点 国债期货：国债期货区间震荡为主 上周国债期货均震荡回落。。短期内国债期货上行驱动与下行 驱动均有限。由于短期内全面降息的必要性不强，加上市场利率逐 渐向政策利率靠拢，国债期货继续上行的动能有限。而中长期来看 内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来货币环境整体偏宽松，国债期 货具有较强支撑。总的来说，短期内国债期货以区间震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 周报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 从业资格号：F3035632 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 9 请务必阅读 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 周报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 短期内国债期货维持区间震荡 核心观点 国债期货：短期内国债期货维持区间震荡 上周国债期货均震荡反弹。统计局公布的 10 月制造业 PMI 数据 有所走弱，其中价格指数与就业指数反应内需有效需求不足的问题 仍存。中长期来看需要偏宽松的货币环境稳定需求端，央行也表态 称要增强央行政策利率的作用,收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，国债期货 具备较强支撑。市场对未来的降息预期有所升温，市场利率开始走 弱。不过由于完成今年增长目标的难度较小，短期内全面降息的必 要性不强，国债期货短线上行动能有所不足。总的来说，短期内国 债期货上下空间均有限，以区间震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格号：F3035632 投资咨询号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The treasury bond futures market continues to experience range-bound oscillations, with frequent switches between flat and steep yield curves [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - On May 14, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year主力合约 down 0.23%, 0.12%, 0.13%, and 0.05% respectively [2] - The treasury bond futures index was 0.22. The volume-price factor was bearish, while the fundamental factor was bullish. Without leverage, the cumulative returns of the strategy were 0.11% in the past 20 days, -0.72% in the past 60 days, 0.30% in the past 120 days, and 1.52% in the past 240 days [2] - The A-share market opened higher and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.12%. Over 3,200 stocks declined [2] - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.4050%, down 0.1bp from the previous trading day; 7-day shibor was at 1.5010%, up 1.1bp; 14-day shibor was at 1.5360%, down 2.0bp; 1-month shibor was at 1.6390%, down 0.8bp [2] 3.2 Market Data - The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the percentage changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures主力合约 on May 14 are presented in a table [3] - The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year active CTD bonds and their corresponding IRRs are provided, with the current R007 at approximately 1.5337% [3] 3.3 Money and Bond Markets - On May 14, the interbank pledged repo market traded 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.91%. Overnight, 7-day, 14-day, and 1-month repo rates all declined compared to the previous trading day [4] - Treasury bond yield curves showed mixed movements, with 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y yields rising and 30Y yield falling. Credit bond yield curves also showed mixed movements [4] 3.4 Net Long Position Changes - By institutional type, private funds, foreign investors, and wealth management subsidiaries all reduced their net long positions on a daily and weekly basis. Daily changes were -2.69%, -10.17%, and -8.78% respectively; weekly changes were -6.12%, -15.87%, and -17.32% respectively [6] 3.5 Macro and Industry News - On May 14, the central bank conducted 9.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before. With 19.55 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 10.35 billion yuan [8] 3.6 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral stance [9]

2025 年 05 月 09 日 国债期货：政策落地提供曲线走陡空间，区间 震荡逻辑未变 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 林致远 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021471 | linzhiyuan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 5 月 8 日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.26%，10 年期主力合约涨 0.17%，5 年期主 力合约涨 0.16%，2 年期主力合约涨 0.05%。 国债期货指数为 0.05。量价因子看多，基本面因子看空。无杠杆下，策略近 20 日累加收益为 0.26%，近 60 日累加收益为-0.71%，近 120 日累加收益为 0.40%，近 240 日累加收益为 1.43%。 权益市场方面，市场全天低开高走，创业板指领涨。南财金融终端显示，截至收盘，沪指涨 0.28%， 深成指涨 0.93%，创业板指涨 1.65%。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，个股涨多跌少，全市场超 3800 只个 股上涨。 资金方面，隔夜 shibor 报 1.5390%，较前一交易日下跌 11. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On April 29, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.69%, 0.23%, 0.13%, and 0.01% respectively. The Treasury bond futures index was - 0.1. The volume - price factor was bullish, while the fundamental factor was bearish. The cumulative returns of the strategy without leverage were - 0.41% in the past 20 days, - 0.78% in the past 60 days, 0.35% in the past 120 days, and 1.46% in the past 240 days. The equity market oscillated and adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indices slightly declining [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year main contract (TL2506) opened at 120.400, closed at 120.980, up 0.69% with an amplitude of 0.51% and a trading volume of 77,545 and an open interest of 106,469. The 10 - year main contract (T2506) opened at 108.925, closed at 109.120, up 0.23% with an amplitude of 0.20% and a trading volume of 51,372 and an open interest of 192,474. The 5 - year main contract (TF2506) opened at 105.935, closed at 106.070, up 0.13% with an amplitude of 0.15% and a trading volume of 50,163 and an open interest of 157,294. The 2 - year main contract (TS2506) opened at 102.336, closed at 102.332, up 0.01% with an amplitude of 0.06% and a trading volume of 34,240 and an open interest of 93,075 [3]. - **Equity Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.65%. More than 4,100 stocks in the entire market declined, and nearly 100 stocks fell more than 9% [1]. 3.2 Capital and Yield - **Funds**: Overnight shibor was reported at 1.5410%, down 6.2bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was reported at 1.7480%, up 2.5bp; 14 - day shibor was reported at 1.7780%, up 0.9bp; 1 - month shibor was reported at 1.7450%, down 0.2bp [2]. - **Bond Yields**: The Treasury bond yield curve shifted down by 1.70 - 3.10BP (2Y down 1.70BP to 1.46%; 5Y down 2.25BP to 1.52%; 10Y down 2.74BP to 1.62%; 30Y down 3.10BP to 1.88%). The credit bond yield curve showed mixed changes [4]. 3.3 Market Transactions - **Money Market**: On April 29, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded a total of 1.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.11%. Overnight repurchase closed at 1.50%, up 5bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day repurchase closed at 1.75%, up 16bp; 14 - day repurchase closed at 1.75%, down 2bp; 1 - month repurchase closed at 1.74%, up 4bp [4]. 3.4 Macro and Industry News - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 29, with an operating rate of 1.5%. With 220.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, a net injection of 120 billion yuan was achieved. In March, the bond market issued a total of 8.73566 trillion yuan of various bonds, including 1.27863 trillion yuan of Treasury bonds, 978.8 billion yuan of local government bonds, 1.02264 trillion yuan of financial bonds, 1.33352 trillion yuan of corporate credit - related bonds, 18.6 billion yuan of credit - asset - backed securities, and 4.06862 trillion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit [7]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]. 3.6 Institutional Position Changes - **Daily Changes**: Private funds reduced their net long positions by 2.37%, foreign investors by 3.21%, and wealth management subsidiaries by 3.94%. - **Weekly Changes**: Private funds reduced their net long positions by 2.41%, foreign investors increased theirs by 4.34%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased theirs by 3.83% [5].