不足啊我们看出口其实因为我们现在的出口的大部分都是新兴地区为主可能像东南亚非洲以及南美这些地区主要的需求下游主要是矿开矿或者是大型的基建项目或者是大型的这种房地产项目 对于中大挖的需求是比较明显的尤其是可能像非洲是最典型的一个案例可能非洲的这个地区他的对于挖机的需求里面可能95%以上都是中大型的挖机那这种情况下那个出口整个挖机的这个盈利情况是非常非常不错的然后我们整体来看 呃国内加上出口挖机整个的结构里面可能小中大挖的占比是小挖能有个60%然后中大挖占比能够40%那这个就和上一轮周期的时候结构是差不了太多的啊所以这个出口是非常好的弥补了国内的这个结构上的一个不足啊 然后出口的话我们可以看一下分地区的表现那在去年的整个分地区表现里面我们觉得现在整个因为因为现在也考虑到一个关税的影响嘛所以说可能一带一路占比高的这个公司他可能会更受益一些所以我们去看整个出口的结构来看可能整个很虚工的这个海外的产品海外的这个地区的收入的结构表现会更好一些 然后就是整个行业国内和出口的一个情况那接下来我们就简单重点参考一下那个目前市场比较关心的一些问题啊那首先就是关于需求的持续性的问题那这个是目前市场最关心的问题 那需求的持续性的问题 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic market shows resilience with June excavator sales increasing by 13% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The export market remains strong, with excavator exports up by 19% year-on-year in June, supported by improving global investment sentiment [2] - Emerging markets are experiencing high demand, and domestic non-excavator segments are showing signs of recovery, enhancing profit certainty for manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Market - In June 2025, excavator sales reached 18,804 units, with domestic sales at 8,136 units, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase. Cumulative domestic excavator sales for the first half of 2025 were 65,637 units, up 22.9% year-on-year. Loader sales in June were 12,014 units, with domestic sales at 6,015 units, increasing by 14% year-on-year. The report suggests that the engineering machinery sector can achieve considerable growth throughout the year due to factors such as improved funding availability and ongoing replacement demand [1] Overseas Market - In June 2025, excavator exports totaled 10,668 units, a 19% year-on-year increase, while loader exports reached 5,999 units, up 9%. For the first half of 2025, cumulative excavator exports were 54,883 units, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase. Despite some downward pressure in regions like Europe and Russia, demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America remains strong. The anticipated reduction in tariff uncertainties is expected to boost market recovery [2] Profitability and Market Conditions - The report indicates that over 80% of profits for engineering machinery manufacturers come from overseas markets, with significant contributions from regions like Indonesia, South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. The first half of 2025 saw a recovery in overseas demand, supporting manufacturer profits. Additionally, the domestic non-excavator segment is expected to recover, with profit margins projected to improve from 15% to 20% in 2025, reducing previous profit drag [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the domestic market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with 2-3 years of growth potential remaining. The overseas emerging market expansion is progressing well, maintaining high demand levels. Recommended stocks include Sany Heavy Industry, a leading comprehensive manufacturer, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [4]