人民财讯11月12日电，银河证券认为，单10月挖机内销增速有所回落，国内挖机开工小时数和开工率同 比仍走弱，但环比略增，伴随传统销售旺季到来，认为四季度挖机内销整体将保持稳健。9月各类工程 起重机内销增速同比/环比均继续走强，叉车内销增速环比+10pct至29.3%，非挖板块继续回暖；海外， 库存消化、降息周期、财政货币刺激下欧美复苏向好。看好工程机械行业继续保持内外销共振向上的良 好态势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating a positive outlook for the business [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 1-3Q25, the company achieved revenue of 37.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.920 billion yuan, up 24.9% [1]. - In 3Q25 alone, revenue reached 12.301 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.9% year-on-year growth, while net profit rose by 35.8% to 1.156 billion yuan [1]. - The company's cash flow showed significant improvement, with net cash inflow from operating activities in 3Q25 amounting to 1.114 billion yuan, compared to 0.383 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The comprehensive gross margin for 1-3Q25 increased by 0.1 percentage points to 28.1%, while it slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 28.0% in 3Q25 [1]. - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased by 0.3 percentage points, 1.8 percentage points, and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, in 3Q25 [1]. - The net profit margin for 3Q25 increased by 0.8 percentage points to 9.4%, and for 1-3Q25, it rose by 1.4 percentage points to 10.6% [1]. Industry Trends - The company continues to benefit from the recovery in domestic non-excavator demand, with domestic excavator sales increasing by 21.5% year-on-year in 1-3Q25 and 18.0% in 3Q25 [2]. - The sales of automotive cranes also saw a significant year-on-year increase of 24.4% in 3Q25 [2]. - The company plans to issue up to 6 billion yuan in H-share convertible bonds, with 50% of the funds allocated for overseas business development and 50% for robotics project R&D [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.58 yuan and 0.73 yuan, respectively [3]. - The current A-shares are valued at 14.4x and 11.4x P/E for 2025 and 2026, while H-shares are at 12.3x and 9.6x P/E [3]. - Target prices for A-shares and H-shares have been raised by 17.5% and 31.9% to 11.0 yuan and 10.0 HKD, respectively, indicating potential upside of 31.3% and 28.5% [3].

Group 1: Industry Overview - Excavator sales in September reached 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with domestic sales at 9,249 units (up 21.5%) and exports at 10,609 units (up 29.0) [1][2] - Loader sales in September totaled 10,530 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, with domestic sales at 5,051 units (up 25.58%) and exports at 5,479 units (up 35.3%) [1][2] - Sales of truck cranes in September were 1,561 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, indicating a positive growth trend in the construction machinery sector [1][2] Group 2: Robotics and Technology - The domestic humanoid robot industry is advancing, with Zhiyuan launching the G2 robot, which features high-performance joints and multi-modal voice interaction capabilities, suitable for various industrial applications [2] - Zhiyuan has signed a procurement contract worth over 100 million yuan with Junsheng Electronics for the initial delivery of the G2 robot [2] Group 3: Company Highlights - Riheng Technology, a leading supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment, reported a nearly doubled order growth and a revenue increase of 38.34% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 7.8% [2] - Kangst, engaged in digital detection instruments, showed a positive Q3 performance with revenue and net profit growth of 22.24% and 30.66% respectively, demonstrating resilience under tariff pressures [3][4] - Newray's revenue and net profit increased by 28.97% and 2.88% respectively, with a stable business growth outlook and improving profitability expected [5]

Group 1: Excavator Sales - In September, a total of 19,858 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%, with domestic sales of 9,249 units (+22%) and export sales of 10,609 units (+29%), significantly exceeding market expectations [1][3][4] - The domestic excavator market has shown a clear upward trend from June to September, supported by factors such as labor substitution and water conservancy funding, despite weak fundamentals in real estate and infrastructure [1][3] - The structure of excavators in China is expected to shift towards a higher proportion of small excavators, which will continue to provide a stabilizing effect on the domestic market [1][3] Group 2: Oilfield Equipment - On October 10, international oil prices fell by approximately 2%, with Brent crude priced at $64 per barrel, primarily due to renewed tariffs announced by Trump and concerns over international trade [2][4] - The decline in oil prices is not expected to significantly impact the demand for oilfield equipment in the medium term, as the cost of oil production in the Middle East remains low and above the breakeven point [2][4] - The demand for LNG as a transitional energy source is expected to sustain, with continued capital expenditure growth in the Middle East, driving up equipment demand [2][4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies recommended for investment in the excavator sector include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [1][3] - In the oilfield equipment sector, companies such as Jereh and Neway are highlighted as strong players due to high barriers to entry and increasing domestic market share [2][4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a slight recovery in the manufacturing PMI to 49.8% in September 2025, indicating improved conditions in new orders and procurement, while non-manufacturing sectors show a decline in price and inventory sentiment [2][9] - The report emphasizes the high-level economic activity in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and transportation equipment manufacturing, while also identifying potential recovery opportunities in pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and light industry sectors [4][5] Industry Analysis - **Manufacturing Sector**: The manufacturing sector shows a mixed performance with a PMI of 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery. New orders and procurement volumes have improved, but price and inventory sentiment have declined [2][9] - **High-frequency Indicators**: Industries experiencing high growth include metal products, machinery repair, non-ferrous metal mining and smelting, and transportation equipment manufacturing. Conversely, industries like pharmaceuticals, food manufacturing, and textiles are facing challenges [4][5] - **Supply Side**: The report notes low growth in finished goods inventory and a decrease in long-term supply pressure in sectors such as oil and gas extraction, non-metallic mineral products, and pharmaceuticals [4][5] - **Consumer Sector**: Retail sales growth for discretionary items continues to decline, but demand for durable goods is expected to be supported by new government subsidies. The automotive sector shows stronger export growth compared to domestic sales [4][5] - **Advanced Manufacturing**: The report indicates a recovery in prices for photovoltaic and lithium battery materials, with optimistic production expectations for energy storage and power batteries [5] - **Technology Sector**: The export price decline for optical modules has slowed, while domestic chip production and sales are accelerating, indicating a positive trend in the technology sector [5] - **Financial Sector**: The report highlights a decrease in non-performing loan rates and an increase in insurance premium income, suggesting a recovery in the financial sector [5] - **Real Estate Chain**: The report notes a widening decline in real estate investment, sales, and construction starts, with cement prices stabilizing at low levels [5] - **Commodity Prices**: The report discusses the stabilization of coal and oil prices, with a new upward trend in metal prices supported by a weak dollar and geopolitical factors [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of selecting valuable research reports and understanding market dynamics to seize investment opportunities [1] - Excavator sales have halved, yet the company achieved a historical high in profits, indicating that traditional business provides a safety net while linear drivers enhance winning rates, positioning this leading company as a rare blue-chip stock [1] - The magnesium-aluminum price ratio has entered a cost-effective range, with the amount of magnesium used in electric vehicles doubling to 90 kg, and additional demand from two-wheeled vehicles and robots expected to reach 174,000 tons, benefiting three leading companies in a market projected to grow by billions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction machinery industry is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in both domestic and export sales of excavators, driven by structural infrastructure projects and an overall improvement in market conditions [1][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - In the domestic market, excavator sales from January to August 2025 increased by 21.55% year-on-year, with both small and large excavators showing growth [1][4]. - The sales of cranes in the domestic market from January to July 2025 saw a decline of only 4.95%, indicating a significant narrowing of the drop, with recovery driven by demand in the wind power sector [4]. - The revenue growth ranking for major manufacturers in the first half of 2025 was led by SANY Heavy Industry, followed by LiuGong, Shantui, XCMG, and Zoomlion, reflecting differences in business structure [4]. Group 2: Export Market Performance - Excavator export sales from January to August 2025 increased by 12.79% year-on-year, reversing a two-year decline, with significant growth in large excavators and a reduction in the decline of small excavators [1][5]. - The total export value of construction machinery reached $33.486 billion, up 10.8% year-on-year, with specific product categories like earthmoving machinery and concrete machinery seeing exports rise by 17% and 14% respectively [5]. - Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa remain the primary drivers of growth, while structural recovery in Western Europe is also notable [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The construction machinery sector reported a revenue of 187.92 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting an 8.02% year-on-year increase, with domestic and international revenues growing by 5.96% and 12.5% respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 18.661 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.94%, driven by improved cost control and operational efficiency [3]. - Operating cash flow for the sector reached 18.147 billion yuan, up 22.49% year-on-year, indicating a strong cash generation capability [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The sector is expected to reach an income inflection point in 2025, with performance elasticity likely to increase, suggesting a focus on leading manufacturers, component manufacturers, and high-tech forklift manufacturers [6][7]. - Recommended companies include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui for comprehensive machinery manufacturing [7]. - For component manufacturers, companies like Hengli Hydraulic, Aidi Precision, and Changling Hydraulic are highlighted for their potential improvements in fundamentals [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for leading companies in the engineering machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui [10]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a significant recovery driven by both domestic and international demand, with a notable increase in performance elasticity [8]. - The sector's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 187.92 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.02%, while net profit increased by 22.94% to 18.661 billion yuan [19][22]. - The report highlights a shift from an "export-only" growth model to a "dual-core" model, with both domestic and international sales contributing to revenue growth [19]. Summary by Sections 1. Operating Conditions: Accelerated Revenue Growth and Strong Profit Elasticity - The engineering machinery sector has shown significant excess returns, with the sector's stock price increasing by 27.56% from the beginning of 2025 to September 9, compared to a 16.16% increase in the CSI 300 index [8][14]. - Domestic excavator sales from January to August 2025 increased by 21.55% year-on-year, driven by structural infrastructure projects [2]. - The average expense ratio for the sector decreased by 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to increased foreign exchange gains [8]. 2. Engineering Machinery: Steady Recovery and Upward Trend - Domestic excavator sales are expected to continue growing, with major projects like the Yaxia Hydropower Station accelerating demand [2][3]. - The overseas market saw excavator exports increase by 12.79% year-on-year, reversing a two-year decline, with total engineering machinery exports reaching 33.486 billion USD, up 10.8% [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of leading manufacturers in both domestic and international markets, with SANY Heavy Industry and LiuGong showing particularly strong revenue growth [19][24]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading manufacturers of complete machines, component manufacturers, and high-altitude work platform/forklift manufacturers due to the expected recovery in demand [9][10]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui for complete machines, and Hengli Hydraulic and Aidi Precision for components [9][10].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rebound after several days of decline, attributed to profit-taking and short-selling activities [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August recorded an increase of only 22,000, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - China's official gold reserves increased by 60,000 ounces to 74.02 million ounces as of the end of August, marking the 10th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank, which is expected to benefit gold stocks [1] Group 2 - The first Deep Space Economy and Industry Development Conference was held in Hefei, China, proposing a framework for the "deep space economy" and identifying ten industry directions, with a projected global market size of one trillion dollars by 2040 [1] Group 3 - Shou Cheng Holdings (00697) reported a 36% year-on-year increase in revenue to 731 million and a 30% increase in net profit to 339 million, aligning with market expectations [3] - The company declared a special dividend of 768 million and an interim dividend of 271 million, totaling 1.039 billion in dividends for the first half of the year, resulting in a yield of 5.83% [3] - CICC raised its profit forecast for Shou Cheng Holdings for 2025 and 2026 by 7% and 6%, respectively, reflecting growth in core business and potential investment returns [3] Group 4 - The construction machinery industry saw a total excavator sales volume of 16,523 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with domestic sales up 15% [5] - Domestic demand for small excavators drove growth, with a 26% increase in sales, while large excavators saw a decline of 22% [5] - The U.S. market is recovering, with overall demand increasing by 8% in July, and North America showing a significant 26% growth [6] Group 5 - The investment sentiment in the Chinese stock market is improving, with foreign institutional clients indicating a more optimistic outlook [11] - Goldman Sachs reported that there is still room for growth in the Chinese stock market, driven by retail investors with substantial savings [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that XCMG Machinery is optimistic about the growth prospects of both domestic and international markets, driven by globalization, technological innovation, and expansion into emerging markets [1] - The company expects a sustained export growth of over 10% in the second half of the year due to favorable policies, renewal cycles, and advancements in new energy and intelligent technologies [1] - Domestic demand for excavators is anticipated to recover due to infrastructure investments, the recovery of the mining sector, and the acceleration of major projects, leading to a rebound in demand for medium and large excavators [1] Group 2 - In terms of mining machinery product structure and planning, the integration of the wide-body truck business will enhance the company's competitive position, providing a comprehensive solution for open-pit mining machinery [2] - The company is currently the leading player in domestic mining machinery and ranks among the top five globally, with plans to continue integrating its industrial segments and enhancing its international presence [2] - The overseas market is expected to maintain a positive trend, with export revenues growing due to the improvement in product quality, enhanced channels and services, and the advancement of domestic companies' global strategies [2]