格隆汇8月27日｜东吴证券研报指出，柳工上半年归母净利润同比+25%符合预期，目标2030年实现营业 收入600亿元。分产品来看，（1）装载机：2025H1国内外收入均同比+20%，其中电动装载机全球销量 同比+193%；（2）挖机：2025H1销售收入同比+25%，其中国内终端销量同比+31%，占有率提高 1.6pct，海外终端销量同比+22%，占有率提高0.5pct，净利润大幅增长90%。考虑到海外特殊地区需求 承压，对公司业绩形成拖累，该行下调公司2025-2027年归母净利润预测为18.5/27.6/35.5亿元（原值分 别为20.7/28.9/37.9亿元），当前市值对应PE分别为12/8/6x，维持"买入"评级。 ...

投资要点 事件：2025 年8 月26 日，公司发布2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 归母净利润同比+25%，业绩与预告一致符合市场预期2025 上半年公司营业总收入181.8 亿元， 同比+13.2%；归母净利润12.3亿元，同比+25.0%。单Q2 公司营业总收入90.3 亿元，同比+11.2%；归母 净利润5.7 亿元，同比+17.9%。业绩与预告一致，符合预期。分国内外看，2025H1国内收入96.6 亿元， 同比+15.7%；海外收入85.2 亿元，同比+10.5%。分产品来看，（1）装载机：2025H1 国内外收入均同 比+20%，其中电动装载机全球销量同比+193%；（2）挖机：2025H1 销售收入同比+25%，其中国内终 端销量同比+31%，占有率提高1.6pct，海外终端销量同比+22%，占有率提高0.5pct，净利润大幅增长 90%。 海外毛利率同比+1.5pct，出口贡献主要业绩增量2025 上半年公司销售毛利率22.3%，同比上升0.2pct， 销售净利率6.3%，同比持平，其中Q2 毛利率22.6%，同比+0.4pct，Q2 销售净利率5.73%，同 比-0.4pct。分国内 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·工程机械 柳工（000528） 2025 年中报点评：归母净利润同比+25%符 合预期，目标 2030 年实现营业收入 600 亿元 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 27,519 | 30,063 | 34,831 | 39,065 | 44,952 | | 同比（%） | 3.93 | 9.24 | 15.86 | 12.16 | 15.07 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 867.81 | 1,327.04 | 1,853.26 | 2,756.54 | 3,546.23 | | 同比（%） | 44.80 | 52.92 | 39.65 | 48.74 | 28.65 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.43 | 0.65 | 0.91 | 1.36 | 1.75 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 26.42 | 17.28 | 12.37 | 8. ...

上 市 公 司 机械设备 2025 年 08 月 22 日 三一重工 (600031) 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 事件： | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.67 | | 资产负债率% | 51.44 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 8,474/8,474 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12-22 01-22 02-22 03-22 04-22 05-22 06-22 07-22 08-22 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 三一重工 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘建伟 A0230521100 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the machinery export industry, particularly in relation to the European and American markets, with insights into the manufacturing sector's recovery and international expansion strategies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Stabilization of European Demand**: After a period of decline, European demand is stabilizing, with signs of recovery. Companies like Komatsu report a narrowing decline in the European market, with a potential for growth [1][2]. 2. **Impact of U.S. Policies**: The U.S. manufacturing return policy, supported by subsidies, is beneficial for construction and operational equipment sectors, leading to increased revenues and profit margins for companies like Zhejiang Dingli [1][5]. 3. **China's Manufacturing Challenges**: Domestic growth in China is slowing, prompting manufacturers to seek international expansion as a strategic direction, particularly in less competitive overseas markets [1][6]. 4. **High Domestic Localization**: China's manufacturing sector has achieved a high level of self-sufficiency and localization, making overseas markets a critical choice for growth [1][7]. 5. **Emerging Markets and New Products**: Recommendations for international expansion include targeting the overseas AI CAPEX chain, oil and gas sectors, and emerging products like golf carts and generator sets [1][8]. 6. **Manufacturing Trends**: The trend of manufacturing moving overseas is expected to continue, driven by global supply chain diversification and U.S. tariff policies [1][10]. 7. **Market Share Opportunities**: Companies with strong organizational capabilities can capitalize on market share opportunities, especially in response to external pressures like tariffs [1][11]. Additional Important Insights - **PMI Data Influence**: July's global manufacturing PMI data showed improvements in several European countries, although it remains below 50, indicating uncertainty in sustained demand recovery [1][4]. - **Long-term Manufacturing Strategies**: The logic behind overseas manufacturing aligns with the U.S. manufacturing return, suggesting a dual approach to meet both domestic and international demands [1][10]. - **Focus on Emerging Demand in Africa**: There is a growing emphasis on the African market, particularly for excavators and generator sets, as manufacturers increase their presence in this region [1][8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed in the conference call, highlighting the machinery export industry's current landscape and future opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, particularly highlighting the high growth potential in engineering machinery and oil service equipment [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rapid advancements in humanoid robotics, showcasing significant progress in embodied intelligence and the commercialization of robots, particularly through the establishment of the world's first humanoid robot 4S store in Beijing [2][3]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing strong demand, with July excavator sales reaching 7,306 units, a 17% year-on-year increase, indicating robust market resilience [4]. - The oil service equipment industry is poised for a performance realization period, driven by high demand in the Middle East, with significant investments projected in the energy sector [5][9]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robotics - The 2025 World Robot Conference showcased advancements in humanoid robots, with companies like Yushu Technology and Magic Atom demonstrating capabilities in combat, soccer, and dance [2]. - The establishment of a humanoid robot 4S store is expected to accelerate the commercialization of robots, providing a direct consumer channel [2]. - The report suggests monitoring the humanoid robotics supply chain, highlighting companies such as Green Harmonic and Henggong Precision [3]. Engineering Machinery - July excavator sales exceeded expectations, with domestic sales showing a 17% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand resilience [4]. - Export volumes also rose significantly, with a 32% year-on-year increase, driven by demand from markets like Africa and Indonesia [4]. - The report identifies key players in the engineering machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG [4]. Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is benefiting from high demand in the Middle East, with projected investments in energy projects reaching $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 [5]. - Leading companies like Jereh and Neway are expected to see substantial revenue growth, with Jereh's revenue growth projected at 49% in Q2 2025 [5][9]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential for Chinese oil service companies in the Middle East, where market share is currently low but expected to increase [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recovery signals in domestic demand for the engineering machinery industry, driven by policy stimulation and stock replacement demand, with a notable increase in excavator sales in early 2025 [1] - The domestic market is expected to see a steep recovery starting in 2025, with excavator sales reaching 57,501 units from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26% [1] - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with domestic leading manufacturers having substantial room to increase their market share compared to global leaders like Caterpillar and Komatsu, which together hold a market share of 27.1% in 2024 [1] Group 2 - XCMG's alpha is attributed to proactive internal changes since 2020, including mixed ownership reform, asset restructuring, and management changes, alongside a diversified product line that mitigates cyclical impacts [2] - XCMG maintains a leading position in various product lines such as excavators, cranes, and concrete machinery, allowing it to capture a larger market share during domestic demand recovery [2] - The mining machinery segment is expected to create a second growth curve for XCMG, driven by increased capital expenditure from overseas mining companies and improved technology and channel development [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for XCMG are projected at 101 billion, 113.8 billion, and 131.8 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with net profits expected to be 8.1 billion, 10.1 billion, and 12.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35%, 25%, and 24% respectively [2] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to its internal reforms, product diversification, and the anticipated stabilization of domestic demand [2]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The demand for medium and large excavators is particularly strong in regions like Africa, where over 95% of excavator demand consists of medium and large machines [1] - The overall structure of excavator sales in China, including exports, shows that small excavators account for approximately 60%, while medium and large excavators account for about 40% [1] - The export performance is seen as a significant supplement to domestic structural deficiencies [1] Key Insights and Arguments - The current cycle presents challenges in tracking machinery demand compared to previous cycles, making it harder to validate excavator demand through traditional metrics like cement and steel production [2][4] - The demand for excavators is primarily driven by replacement needs, which depend heavily on actual working hours and construction activity [4] - A model indicates that 2023 may be the bottom year for excavator sales in China, with a potential increase to 250,000 units by 2028, representing a 150% growth from 2024 [5] - Excavator sales growth in China is consistent with trends in emerging markets, which are heavily influenced by economic conditions in developed countries [6][7] Regional Performance - North America and Europe have shown positive trends in working hours, indicating a recovery in demand [7] - Chinese brands like SANY have gained significant market share in Africa and Southeast Asia, with SANY's market share in South Africa reaching over 20% [7][8] - The global market for concrete and starting machines is dominated by Chinese brands, achieving market shares of 80-90% [8] Long-term Growth Potential - Emerging markets like Africa and Indonesia are still in early stages of infrastructure development, suggesting significant future demand for excavators [9][10] - The current export structure indicates that the share of large excavators is expected to decrease as markets mature, but there is still ample room for growth [10] Company-Specific Insights - SANY is highlighted as a core recommendation due to its strong profit elasticity and potential for margin improvement as production capacity increases [11][12] - XCMG is expected to benefit from a clear growth strategy, with revenue targets set at 160 billion by 2027, driven by various machinery segments [18] - Zoomlion is noted for its high dividend yield and stable earnings growth, with a target of 4.6 billion in profits for the year [19] - Liugong is viewed as undervalued, with a low PE ratio, making it an attractive investment if domestic demand improves [21] Risks and Concerns - The impact of tariffs on exports is a systemic risk affecting the entire machinery sector, not just excavators [15] - Concerns regarding management changes at Liugong and their potential impact on profit-sharing and incentives [21] - The performance of Hongli's main business has been slightly below market expectations, primarily due to tariff-related shipment delays [22] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a dual boost in performance and valuation for key players like SANY and XCMG in the coming quarters [16][17]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the construction machinery industry, with specific references to companies like SANY and Zoomlion, as well as the overall market dynamics in China and export markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Growth Trends**: The growth rate for the first quarter was around 14%, but there were significant discrepancies in May, with small and medium enterprises showing varied performance. The overall forecast remains optimistic with a growth rate of over 10% expected for the month [1][1][1]. 2. **Domestic Sales and Recovery**: Despite a decline in construction activity and payment collection in late April, there has been a noticeable improvement compared to the same period last year. The government is expected to introduce new fiscal policies by the end of June, supporting a moderate recovery in domestic sales [2][2][2]. 3. **Export Performance**: The export data for mid-May was disappointing, but this is attributed to the inherent randomness in half-month reporting. Official customs data and EM databases are being used to assess export performance [2][3][3]. 4. **Regional Growth Rates**: Notable growth rates were reported in regions such as Southeast Asia (e.g., Indonesia at 138%), Africa, and Latin America, while North America showed a 7% increase. The growth in these regions is primarily driven by demand for construction machinery [3][3][3]. 5. **Export Dynamics**: There is a distinction between customs data and AM database data, with customs data showing faster growth. The presence of small and medium enterprises may lead to discrepancies in reported export figures [4][4][4]. 6. **Trade Tariffs Impact**: The impact of trade tariffs on exports to the U.S. has been significant, with various tariffs affecting the cost structure for companies. The engineering sector has been adapting to these tariffs since 2018, with strategies including relocating production to Southeast Asia [6][6][6]. 7. **Long-term Outlook**: The overall sentiment is that the engineering sector is poised for a moderate and sustained recovery over the next three to five years, with a compound annual growth rate expected to be favorable. Companies are focusing on shareholder returns and improving asset quality [11][11][11]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Tariff Adjustments**: The recent adjustments in tariffs have provided some relief, but the overall impact on smaller enterprises remains a concern due to their higher exposure to tariff fluctuations [7][7][7]. 2. **Supply Chain Adjustments**: Companies are exploring alternative solutions to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including using domestic engines and hybrid solutions, although challenges remain for larger machinery [9][10][10]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of the construction machinery market, with expectations of a gradual improvement in demand driven by structural changes in the industry [11][11][11].

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery sector shows strong sales performance in June 2025, indicating resilience in domestic demand and a positive outlook for the industry [3][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In June 2025, a total of 18,804 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [4]. - Domestic sales accounted for 8,136 units, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, while export sales reached 10,668 units, marking a 19.3% increase [4]. Group 2: Operational Metrics - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in June were 77.2 hours, a decrease of 9.11% year-on-year [4]. - The monthly operating rate for major engineering machinery products was 56.9%, down 7.55 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The domestic market is experiencing a slowdown in operations due to the timing of fund availability, but the sales recovery in June suggests strong underlying demand [4]. - The industry is entering a renewal cycle, supported by favorable policies in real estate and infrastructure, which is expected to boost demand [4]. - Export sales continue to grow, with June marking the highest monthly sales volume since last year, driven by improving demand in Europe and strong performance in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South America, and Africa [4]. - The overall outlook for the engineering machinery sector remains positive, with expectations of strong profit contributions from overseas markets [4].