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刘世锦:中国资本市场资金的增量来源或已发生转折性变化
证券时报· 2025-09-26 04:10
Core Viewpoint - China has accumulated a significant amount of social net wealth, and with low bank savings rates, the only way for this wealth to grow is through capital markets. This marks a transformative change in the sources of incremental capital market funding compared to the past [1]. Economic Challenges - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China faces urgent challenges of demand constraints and insufficient consumption. Structural reforms in three key areas are recommended to effectively expand consumption [2]. Consumption Structure Issues - The consumption structure in China shows significant deviations when compared to international averages, primarily due to insufficient growth in service consumption. This structural bias is attributed to various factors, including low levels of public services, urbanization challenges, income disparities, and a long-standing policy focus on investment over consumption [4][5]. Structural Reforms for Consumption Expansion - To address consumption inadequacies, it is essential to focus on structural reforms that target the root causes of low consumption levels. This includes addressing the needs of low-income groups and improving access to essential services such as education, healthcare, and housing [7][8]. Specific Areas for Structural Reform - Three key areas for structural reform are identified: 1. Focus on providing housing solutions for migrant workers by converting unsold properties into affordable housing [8]. 2. Reform the rural pension system to increase pension income significantly, thereby unlocking consumption potential for a large segment of the population [9]. 3. Promote the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas to stimulate a new wave of urbanization [9]. Financial Market Development - A strong financial market is essential for supporting a consumption-driven economy. The capital market is expected to enter a new development phase, with a shift in the sources of incremental funding due to declining real estate growth and low bank interest rates [12]. Global Market Integration - Implementing a balanced import-export strategy is crucial for enhancing the international status of the Chinese yuan. This involves increasing imports to boost the yuan's role as a reserve currency, moving away from a reliance on exports for foreign exchange reserves [12].