Core Viewpoint - China has accumulated a significant amount of social net wealth, and low bank savings rates suggest that net wealth can only grow through capital markets, indicating a transformative change in the sources of capital market funding compared to the past [1][10]. Economic Growth and Challenges - China's economic recovery post-COVID-19 has shown a generally positive trend, achieving growth targets of 5.2% and 5% in the past two years, placing it among the leading global economies [3]. - The macroeconomic environment faces increasing pressure from declining demand, with the GDP deflator index experiencing negative growth for nine consecutive quarters [3]. - The primary challenge during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is not insufficient investment but rather insufficient consumption, which is significantly deviated from both international averages and typical economies at similar development stages [3][4]. Structural Consumption Issues - The structural bias in consumption is largely attributed to insufficient service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, affordable housing, social security, and elderly care [4]. - The disparity in consumption is exacerbated by various factors, including low levels of public services, urbanization lag, income inequality, and a long-standing policy focus on investment over consumption [4]. Proposed Structural Reforms - To effectively expand consumption, three key areas for structural reform are identified: 1. Addressing housing shortages for new urban residents, particularly migrant workers, through government initiatives to convert unsold housing into affordable options [7]. 2. Reforming the rural pension system to significantly increase pension income for rural residents, thereby unlocking consumption potential for a large segment of the population [7]. 3. Promoting a new wave of urbanization by facilitating the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, enhancing rural residents' income [7]. Financial Market Development - A strong financial market is essential for supporting both consumption and manufacturing sectors, with a focus on establishing robust monetary and capital markets [9][10]. - The capital market is expected to enter a new development phase, with a shift in funding sources and an emphasis on nurturing globally competitive large tech firms and innovative SMEs [10]. - The strategy includes balancing imports and exports, promoting the use of the RMB in international trade, and enhancing the international status of the RMB as a reserve currency [10].

"中国经过这么多年，已经积累了非常大规模的社会净财富。银行储蓄利率很低，净财富或许只有进入资本市场才能增长。所以资本市场增量（资金）的 来源和过去相比已经发生了转折性变化。"9月25日，国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦在第四届五矿产业金融论坛上表示。 刘世锦以"'十五五'时期中国经济持续稳定高质量发展的重点、战略与政策"为题讲述建设金融强国时谈到的前述看法。他还谈到，需求约束、消费不足是"十五 五"期间我国面临的最为紧迫且严峻的挑战，建议重点推动三个领域结构性改革以有效扩大消费。 消费结构性偏差问题"水落石出" 刘世锦表示，近些年来，中国经济疫后复苏进程尽管有曲折，但总体呈现回升向好态势。前两年分别实现5.2%和5%的增长目标，在全球各大经济体中居前。 对于如何才能有效扩大消费？刘世锦表示，补贴消费等举措主要通过促销增加消费。这种办法短期内是有效的，但不具有可持续性。发钱补贴也会给到亿万 富翁手里，这对他们是没有意义的，精准性不够；即使到了低收入阶层手里，多买几个面包也是好事，但对他们真正需要解决的教育、医疗、住房、社保等 问题则无济于事。 刘世锦认为，实行有效扩大消费方针，要着力推进结构性改革，目标是使消费 ...