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「经济发展」余永定:对过去20多年宏观调控政策的几点思考
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 14:47
Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]
刘世锦:建议通过结构性改革减少消费不足的结构性偏差
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 12:50
Group 1 - The current consumption deficiency in China is a structural deviation that needs to be addressed through investment policies and funding to stimulate consumption and create new growth momentum for transformation [1] - The low proportion of service consumption in GDP indicates a structural issue in consumption, necessitating structural reforms focused on enhancing the consumption capacity of low-income groups, particularly in education, healthcare, affordable housing, and social security [1][2] - The proposal includes three reforms: first, addressing the structural housing deficit for new citizens, allowing local governments to use special bonds to acquire unsold housing for affordable housing projects [1][2] Group 2 - The disparity in pension benefits between urban workers and rural residents, which is nearly 30 times, significantly impacts consumption capacity and economic growth, suggesting a need for a more equitable pension system [2] - Recommendations for pension reform include increasing rural pensions to 620 yuan per month within three years and to 1000 yuan within five years to reduce the urban-rural gap [2] - The second urbanization wave should be driven by the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, aiming to double the middle-income group from 400 million to 800-900 million in about ten years to boost consumption, especially in services [3]
如何有效提振消费,刘世锦最新发言
21世纪经济报道· 2025-08-16 09:12
记者丨卜羽勤 编辑丨曾芳 消费不足是一种结构性偏差 "近年来我国经济增长疫后复苏、回升向好,也面临需求不足的严峻挑战。需求不足主要不是 投资不足,而是消费不足。"刘世锦认为,不论从国际比较、发展阶段还是消费结构来看,我 国消费率均处于偏低水平,这种状况可被称之是一种结构性偏差。 他具体指出,消费不足主要体现在服务消费的不足,重点是教育、医疗、保障性住房、社 保、养老等与基本公共服务相关的发展型消费不足;消费不足最大的缺口在于农村居民,重 点是近三亿农民工、近两亿进城农民工;消费不足实质上还是由来已久的城乡二元结构问 题,要通过以人为中心、发展权利平等的城市化和城乡融合发展为主线的结构性改革找到破 题之道。 为此,他提出了一个"终端需求"的概念,即消费+非生产性投资,后者主要是与民生相关的房 地产和基础设施建设。 刘世锦认为,过去相当长时间内,房地产和基建高速增长,从国际比较看,实际上存在着超 前和透支的问题。 当前中国经济面临诸多挑战,包括价格低迷、名义增长低于实际增长等, 根源都指向终端需求不足。解决消费比重过低问题,把终端需求提到合理水平,就有了经济 运行的源头活水 。 8月16日,由南方财经全媒体集团指 ...
刘世锦:要减少消费不足的结构性偏差 形成稳增长促转型的新动能
Core Viewpoint - The current consumption shortfall in China is identified as a structural deviation that needs to be addressed through investment policies and funding to stimulate consumption and create new momentum for stable growth and transformation [2][5]. Group 1: Consumption Shortfall - The consumption shortfall is primarily due to insufficient service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, affordable housing, social security, and elderly care [2]. - The largest gap in consumption is found among rural residents, especially among nearly 300 million migrant workers and 200 million rural-to-urban migrants [2]. - The structural issue of urban-rural duality must be addressed through reforms focused on human-centered urbanization and equal development rights [2]. Group 2: Investment and Policy Recommendations - The concept of "terminal demand" is introduced, which combines consumption with non-productive investment related to people's livelihoods, such as real estate and infrastructure [2]. - There is a need to shift the focus of stimulus policies towards enhancing consumption, with a target to raise the consumption share of GDP to a reasonable level as a hard task for stable growth [5][6]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - Three key areas for structural reform are proposed to effectively boost consumption: 1. Addressing housing shortages for new urban residents, particularly migrant workers, through the acquisition of unsold housing and the construction of new affordable housing [7]. 2. Reforming the rural residents' pension insurance system to cover a larger population and improve pension income, aiming for a monthly pension of 1,000 yuan within five years [8]. 3. Promoting the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas to drive a second wave of urbanization, targeting a 75% urbanization rate and doubling the middle-income group within a decade [9].
资生堂中国下滑10%,却成关键“利润高地”
FBeauty未来迹· 2025-08-06 14:07
Core Viewpoint - Shiseido Group reported a 7.6% decline in net sales for the first half of 2025, totaling 469.83 billion yen (approximately 22.86 billion RMB), while core operating profit increased by 21.3% to 233.72 billion yen (approximately 11.37 billion RMB) [3][9][10] Financial Performance Summary - The overall performance of Shiseido in the first half of 2025 shows a significant improvement in profitability despite a challenging market environment [7][14] - The decline in net sales is attributed to adverse factors in the overseas cosmetics market, particularly in China and travel retail, where both net sales and core operating profit decreased [10][19] - The core operating profit growth of 21.3% aligns with the group's expectations, driven by structural reforms in the Japanese business and effective cost management [9][10] Regional Performance Breakdown - **Japan**: Net sales of 145.87 billion yen (-0.4%), core operating profit increased by 207.5% to 19.51 billion yen [10] - **China and Travel Retail**: Net sales of 173.84 billion yen (-10.0%), core operating profit decreased by 15.6% to 38.81 billion yen [10][17] - **Asia-Pacific**: Net sales of 33.66 billion yen (-0.5%), core operating profit at -1.29 billion yen [10] - **North America**: Net sales of 51.47 billion yen (-9.0%), core operating profit at -5.83 billion yen [10] - **Emerging Markets**: Net sales of 59.50 billion yen (-3.8%), core operating profit at -2.56 billion yen [10] - **Other Regions**: Net sales of 5.39 billion yen (-25.8%), core operating profit at -0.90 billion yen [10] Brand Performance Insights - Core brands showed positive growth when excluding the performance in China and travel retail markets [11] - The Shiseido and CPB brands faced challenges in the Chinese market, impacting overall performance [7][19] Strategic Outlook - Shiseido maintains its full-year sales forecast of 995 billion yen and core operating profit of 36.5 billion yen for 2025, indicating a focus on stabilization amid ongoing structural reforms [22][23] - The company is implementing a two-year action plan (2025-2026) aimed at enhancing profitability and establishing a resilient business model [23][25] - The group emphasizes a shift towards sustainable profit growth rather than mere scale expansion, reflecting a broader trend in the cosmetics industry [26]
下半年经济与政策节奏的再思考:水线下的冰山
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-31 11:34
证券研究报告 | 2025年07月31日 水线下的冰山 下半年经济与政策节奏的再思考 经济研究 · 宏观专题 S0980524090003 S0980516060001 S0980523070001 S0980513100001 tiandi2@guosen.com.cn lizn@guosen.com.cn shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn 证券分析师:田地 证券分析师:李智能 证券分析师:邵兴宇 证券分析师:董德志 联系人:王奕群 0755-81982035 0755-22940456 010-88005483 021-60933158 wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 上半年:三个"意外" 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 政策:保持克制 图:财政融资进度适度靠前,但并未显著超出近年趋势 资料来源:Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 图:央行总量政策总体看较为中性 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 资料来源:Macrobond、国信证券经济研究所整理 • 从高频指 ...
渤海证券研究所晨会纪要(2025.07.17)-20250717
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-17 01:45
Macro and Strategy Research - In June, social financing increased by over 90 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing contributing over 50 billion yuan, indicating a strong support for social financing growth [2] - The short-term loans for enterprises increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan in June, reflecting a cautious approach towards long-term loans due to external uncertainties and profit pressures [2][3] - M1 growth rate rebounded significantly by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6% in June, driven by accelerated fiscal spending and a reduction in seasonal government deposits [3] Economic Data Review - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, slightly below expectations, while the industrial added value in June grew by 6.8%, exceeding expectations [5] - The contribution rates of final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth were 52.3%, 24.7%, and 23.0% respectively, indicating consumption as the main driver of GDP growth [5] - The industrial production index showed a significant rebound in June, supported by increased working days and the release of policies [6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for three consecutive months, with manufacturing investment decreasing by 2.7 percentage points to 5.1% in June, reflecting cautious corporate investment sentiment [7] - Real estate investment growth rate fell to -12.9%, indicating ongoing demand-side pressures in the real estate sector [8] Industry Research - The mechanical equipment industry saw a 1.56% increase in the index from July 9 to July 15, outperforming the broader market [10] - Excavator sales in June reached 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, indicating a strong domestic market for construction machinery [10] - The easing of tariff uncertainties in Southeast Asia is expected to positively impact export dynamics in the mechanical equipment sector [10]
CF40解读宏观经济趋势与结构性改⾰
2025-07-15 01:58
2025年7月11日 丨 总第115期 中国经济轨迹: 解读宏观经济趋势与结构性改⾰ 席睿德(Alfred Schipke) 新加坡国⽴⼤学东亚研究所所⻓、李光耀公共政策学院教授 ⻩益平 现任北京⼤学国家发展研究院院⻓、教授 郭 凯 中国⾦融四⼗⼈研究院执⾏院⻓ 摘要:本⽂是新加坡国⽴⼤学东亚研究所、北京⼤学国家发展研究院和中国⾦融四⼗⼈研 究院联合发布的2025年中国经济报告,于2025年7⽉11⽇发表于《东亚研究所时事评论》第93 期。报告对2025年中国宏观经济的基本表现及⾯临的中⻓期挑战展开分析,并提出了应对中 ⻓期挑战的宏观政策组合和结构性改⾰措施。 The original Chinese text was published on February 16, 2025. February 18, 2024 丨 NO.96 东亚研究所 《 时 事 评 论 》 | 第 9 3 期 | 2025 年 7 ⽉ 1 1 ⽇ 中国经济轨迹:解读宏观经济趋势与结构 性改⾰ 作者:席睿德、⻩益平、郭凯 中国经济在2024年因财政⽀出减少和房地产市场深度调整⽽导致总需求显著减弱,但随着包 括化解地⽅政府隐性债务的财 ...
优衣库的中国困境:降价自救,尚未见效
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-11 12:13
Core Viewpoint - Uniqlo is facing challenges in the Greater China market, which was once a significant growth driver, now becoming a profit drag due to declining consumer demand and increased competition from local brands [3][11][16]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter ending May 31, 2025, Uniqlo reported a revenue increase of 7.7% year-on-year to 826.5 billion yen (approximately 40.4 billion RMB), but net profit decreased by 9.7% to 105.5 billion yen (approximately 5.16 billion RMB) [3]. - In the first three quarters, revenue in the Greater China market decreased by approximately 3% in local currency, with operating profit down about 8% [4]. - The management estimates a revenue decline of about 10% and profit contraction for the second half of the 2025 fiscal year in the Greater China market [5]. Market Dynamics - Uniqlo's performance in Japan, North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia remains strong, contrasting with the weak demand in China, which has affected overall net profit [3]. - The company has seen a significant drop in same-store sales since 2024, attributing 50% of the poor performance to external factors and 50% to internal issues [11]. Strategic Adjustments - Uniqlo is undergoing structural reforms, focusing on product pricing adjustments and enhancing marketing efforts to better align with consumer expectations in China [5][16]. - The company is shifting its strategy from expanding the number of stores to improving the profitability of existing locations, with plans to open regional flagship stores in major cities [15][18]. Competitive Landscape - The rise of "alternative products" from local brands is seen as a significant threat to Uniqlo's market share in China [15]. - Uniqlo aims to coexist with local brands, leveraging collaborations with artists and designers to create differentiated products [16]. Future Outlook - Management targets improved performance in the 2026 fiscal year compared to 2025, with a complete transformation of the business model by the 2027 fiscal year [17]. - The company maintains its revenue and profit outlook for the 2025 fiscal year at 3.4 trillion yen and 410 billion yen, respectively, which translates to approximately 166.5 billion RMB and 20.1 billion RMB [18].
管清友:消费升级还是消费降级?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 11:51
Group 1 - The book "Consumption Prosperity and China's Future" discusses the shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth in China's economy [4][8] - It emphasizes the need for policy adjustments to stimulate consumption, highlighting the importance of income and social security for individuals to feel secure enough to spend [5][9] - The current economic climate reflects a significant contraction in consumption, raising concerns about deflation and the challenges in reversing this trend [6][8] Group 2 - The book outlines the historical context of China's economic growth since 1978, particularly post-2008 financial crisis, and critiques the inefficacy of traditional infrastructure investments in sustaining growth [7][8] - It argues for a reduction in ineffective investments and a reallocation of resources towards improving living standards to foster consumption [8][12] - The discussion includes the necessity for structural reforms in state-owned enterprises and income distribution to enhance consumer spending power [12][14] Group 3 - The book proposes five core strategies for transforming China's economy from a "world factory" to the "largest consumer market," including fiscal policy transformation and innovation in monetary policy [14] - It stresses the importance of deepening income distribution reforms and stimulating the private economy to achieve sustainable consumption growth [14] - The authors advocate for a comprehensive theoretical framework tailored to China's unique economic context to support long-term economic stability [13][14]