有源相控阵T/R组件及射频模块
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国博电子(688375):阶段性承压,新品量产开启第二成长曲线
Guotou Securities· 2025-10-31 09:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company with a 12-month target price of 82.42 CNY [5][7]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a phase of pressure on its performance, with a revenue decline of 13.51% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 1.569 billion CNY, and a net profit decrease of 19.35% to 247 million CNY [1][2]. - The introduction of new products, particularly the silicon-based gallium nitride power amplifier chips, is expected to drive a second growth curve for the company, with over 1 million units delivered, filling a gap in the market for silicon-based gallium nitride applications [3]. - The company faces challenges with increasing receivables and inventory, leading to a negative operating cash flow of 35 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to a positive cash flow of 147 million CNY in the same period last year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.569 billion CNY, down 13.51% year-on-year, and a net profit of 247 million CNY, down 19.35% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 500 million CNY, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 46 million CNY, down 26.0% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 36.0%, and the net margin fell by 2.9 percentage points to 9.2% [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 513 million CNY, 702 million CNY, and 898 million CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 5.87%, 36.77%, and 27.96% [5]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 0.2% in 2025, 30.6% in 2026, and 26.1% in 2027 [10]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the active phased array T/R components and RF modules sector in China, with long-term growth potential in the commercial aerospace and semiconductor industries [5].