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旺季需求尚待验证 预计短期螺纹钢期价底部震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-04 08:15
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing fluctuations in supply and demand, with expectations of increased supply due to reduced production limits and a potential rise in demand during the peak season of September and October [2][3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of September 4, total rebar inventory reached 5.9636 million tons, an increase of 154,300 tons week-on-week, representing a 2.66% rise. Year-on-year, this is up by 15.48% [1]. - Social inventory stands at 4.2315 million tons, up by 134,800 tons week-on-week, a 3.29% increase, and up 14.26% year-on-year [1]. - Factory inventory is at 1.7322 million tons, increasing by 19,500 tons week-on-week, a 1.14% rise, and up 18.56% year-on-year [1]. - Rebar production for the week was 2.1868 million tons, down by 18,800 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 0.85% [1]. - Rebar apparent consumption was 2.0207 million tons, down by 21,400 tons week-on-week, a decline of 1.05% [1]. Market Outlook - According to Guotai Junan Futures, after major events, steel mills are expected to increase supply, while electric arc furnaces are still facing losses. The demand is anticipated to rise during the peak season, with improved funding availability in downstream construction [2]. - Ningzheng Futures notes that short-term demand for steel is limited, with low-priced resources selling well but high-priced resources struggling. Most steel mills are operating at minimal profits, and production is expected to remain high as furnaces in Tangshan resume operations [3].