投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-26 政策仍有预期，基本⾯延续季节性改善 继周内《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台后，中国炼焦⾏业协会市场委员 会的会议再度引发市场"反内卷"情绪提升，⽇盘板块多数品种呈现 先抑后扬⾛势，但从⽇内涨跌幅来看，焦炭相对偏强，夜盘时段，虽 然以煤焦为代表，价格⼩幅回落，但炉料需求所对应的铁⽔产出继续 表现强劲，进⽽预计板块品种价格下⾏空间有限。 3、合金方面，旺季期间下游采购需求预期对锰硅价格仍存支撑，但 后市市场供需预期较为悲观、旺季过后锰硅价格中枢仍存下行空间， 关注原料成本的下调幅度。旺季预期及成本坚挺支撑硅铁价格表现， 但硅铁供需关系趋向宽松、旺季过后价格仍存下行压力。 4、玻璃现实需求偏弱，但旺季以及政策预期存在、《建材行业稳增 长方案》出台加强政策预期，中游去库后可能仍有一波震荡反复。中 长期来看仍旧需要市场化去产能，若价格重回基本面交易，则预计震 荡下行。纯碱供给过剩格局没有改变，预计后续跟随宏观变动宽幅震 荡运行。长期来看价格中枢仍将下行，推动产能去化。 整体而言，随着旺季深入，产业链各环节、尤其是中上游环节依 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Grasberg mine accident intensifies concerns about tight global copper supply, and the copper price is expected to rise in the long - term. Short - term prices are driven up by mine disruptions, with support at 81000 - 81500 [2]. Aluminum - Alumina is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation, with the short - term price range of the main contract expected to be 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals provide limited upward elasticity. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [10]. Tin - The supply side of tin is strong, supporting the tin price to continue the high - level shock, with the operating range of 265000 - 285000 [12]. Nickel - The nickel market has a weak macro - atmosphere, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 119000 - 124000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has firm raw material prices and cost support, but the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12800 - 13200 [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and organize, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80045 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The refined - scrap price difference is 1879 yuan/ton, up 4.45%. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24%; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20680 yuan/ton, unchanged. The alumina prices in various regions are all slightly down. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions are all down. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60%; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21820 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The import profit and loss is - 3230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88%; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 271400 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The import profit and loss is - 13025.42 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71%; the refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [12]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The import profit and loss is - 1374 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32200 tons, up 1.26%; the import volume is 17536 tons, down 8.46% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83%; the import volume is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55%; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market is oscillating with unclear unilateral direction. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading, and the positions for phased basis buying hedging can be rolled for profit - taking [3]. - The sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals. Industrial customers are advised to focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage [3]. - The coking coal spot is strong. It is suggested that the long - side open positions be gradually liquidated before the holiday, and sell - hedging should be carried out when the price rises again [3]. - There are still supports for iron ore before the holiday. A long - at - low strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2605 closed at 3227.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.22%); HC2605 at 3365.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.21%); I2605 at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan (0.26%); J2605 at 1871.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan (1.30%); JM2605 at 1312.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan (0.85%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2601 closed at 3164.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan (0.03%); HC2601 at 3357.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan (0.24%); I2601 at 803.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 at 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan (1.14%); JM2601 at 1224.50 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan (1.24%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios (September 24th)**: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 63.00 yuan/ton; the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 8.00 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 was 20.50 yuan/ton; the spread between J2601 and J2605 was - 141.00 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2601 and JM2605 was - 87.50 yuan/ton. The coil - to - rebar spread was 193.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.41, the rebar futures profit was - 84.53 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 101.42 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products (September 24th)**: Shanghai rebar was 3290.00 yuan/ton, up 12.40 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 106.50, up 0.30. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3430.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3390.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 260.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan [1]. - **Other Products (September 24th)**: The price of Super Special Powder was 710.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of mixed powder at Qingdao Port was 745.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1285.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan [1]. - **Basis (September 24th)**: The basis of HC was 63.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan; the basis of RB was 126.00 yuan/ton, up 31.00 yuan; the basis of I was 26.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J was - 157.37 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan; the basis of JM was 90.50 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Steel**: The futures price was stable on Wednesday, and the spot price slightly stabilized. The trading volume increased moderately compared with Tuesday. The data from Steel Valley Network showed that both supply and demand increased, but the inventory did not decline significantly, indicating that the peak - season demand was not strong. The macro - level US interest rate cut is beneficial to liquidity and risk appetite in the medium - term, but there is no obvious expected trading in the short - term. The peak - season demand for steel is not strong, and the improvement in the apparent demand for building materials is not significant, which cannot drive a strong rebound. The cost support exists due to high pig iron production and pre - National Day furnace charge replenishment, but the high production of building materials increases potential concerns in the long - term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The anti - involution policy leads to tidal - style trading, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The two silicon alloys follow the market. The industry has turned from large losses to profits, and the supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand needs to be verified, and the risk of a decline in pig iron and electric - arc furnace operations is accumulating, which may impact the demand for the two alloys. The inventory is gradually accumulating, and the overall inventory level is still high [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading of coke at ports is weak, but the coking coal auction has good results due to pre - holiday replenishment, and most prices have risen. The futures market oscillates. From a macro perspective, there are signs of "all good news being priced in". From an industrial perspective, the supply - demand of steel has improved marginally before the holiday, and the cost support is effective. However, considering the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward drive from the industry is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long - side positions before the holiday and sell - hedge when the price rises [3]. - **Iron Ore**: After the iron ore meeting last week, there were many market rumors. The pig iron production has slightly increased to 240.02 million tons (+0.47). The profitability of steel mills has declined by 1.3% to 58.87%. The steel mills' replenishment for the National Day holiday is almost over. The transfer of iron ore inventory from ports to mills in the next week will support the price. The apparent demand for steel has slightly increased, mainly from rebar, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil has slightly declined. The steel mills have reduced rebar production, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to slight depletion. There is still support for iron ore before the National Day holiday, but the upside depends on the steel demand [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to show narrow - range consolidation. Although steel billet exports have increased significantly, market expectations for peak - season demand are low, and there are concerns about post - National Day inventory accumulation. The large amount of warehouse receipts also affects market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply has declined, but iron - water production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has continued to decline, resulting in a situation where long and short factors are intertwined [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Some coal mines are under maintenance, and downstream procurement has increased. However, the increase in coking coal prices has widened the losses of coking enterprises, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The domestic coke market is stable, but the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk. The demand for pre - National Day restocking by steel mills has increased, and the demand from downstream steel mills is relatively stable [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. The fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, limited demand, and weak cost support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, weak demand, and increased raw - material costs [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 20,300 lots in positions. Spot prices and trading volume decreased. From January to August 2025, domestic steel billet exports totaled 9.2362 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 293.24%, and 1.7642 million tons in August, a year - on - year increase of 236.03% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (0.7%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 290,000 lots and a reduction of 15,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased by 1.658 million tons to 19.188 million tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 393,000 tons to 8.54 million tons. Iron - water production increased by 4,700 tons to 2.4102 million tons, and the steel mill profit rate continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1217.5 yuan/ton, with no price change and a reduction of 9,423 lots in positions. The price of main coking coal in Lvliang increased by 60 yuan to 1263 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market showed a strong - oscillating trend. Some coal mines were under maintenance, and downstream procurement increased [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 425 lots in positions. The spot price in ports decreased. Some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged dry - quenched coke, but the profit of coking enterprises continued to shrink [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: On Tuesday, the silicomanganese futures price showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract closing at 5882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% month - on - month, and a reduction of 4,631 lots in positions to 335,200 lots. The market price was 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton, basically unchanged month - on - month. The mainstream steel tender price was set at 6000 yuan/ton, but it was difficult to reach a new high in the future. Production was at a relatively high level, demand was limited, and cost support was weak [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the main contract closing at 5698 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% month - on - month, and a reduction of 12,607 lots in positions to 187,400 lots. The aggregated price was about 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production was at a relatively high level, demand from steel mills was weak, and the inventory of steel mills increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months), basis, and spot prices for various varieties including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) are also provided, along with their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [17][18][19][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various varieties [27][28][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [42][43][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts present the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][49][50][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - commodity research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed's hawkish stance in the FOMC meeting puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, and with the approaching holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. - Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, the progress of rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. For aluminum, the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious, but as prices fall and the National Day holiday approaches, downstream consumption is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below and may repair upwards in the short term [7]. - For lead, on the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and raw material shortages suppress primary smelting operations. On the secondary side, scrap prices decline, and secondary smelting profits are repaired, with a slight improvement in operations. Downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years, and after the battery inventory pressure eases, downstream purchases increase slightly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low Shanghai - London ratio. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, and the Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will run weakly in the short term [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is approaching, the overall volume remains to be observed. Coupled with the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices may not fall in the short term and will continue to run in a volatile manner [13]. - For nickel, recently, the price of ferronickel is relatively strong, but the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will support nickel prices, and the RKAB approval in the new year also constitutes potential positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. - For lithium carbonate, on Tuesday, the commodity index was weak, and lithium prices were under pressure during the session. But it is the peak - demand season, and domestic inventory is continuously decreasing, so the spot may remain in a tight state, and lithium prices have strong support at the bottom [20]. - For alumina, the ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, and the physical inventory in Foshan is relatively low, resulting in strong support below. However, the consumer side has not improved significantly, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is low. It is expected to run in a narrow - range and volatile manner in the short term [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious yet. Coupled with the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure of cast aluminum alloy appears, and the price is under pressure above, while the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [29]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME copper fell 0.08% to $9993/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79970 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 to 144975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 28,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 55 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, the inventory decreased, with the spot premium remaining at 70 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 1800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME aluminum continued to be weak, closing down 0.34% to $2646/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20670 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 501,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory both decreased slightly, and the aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated up. The spot in East China was at a 10 - yuan discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed by 10 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory slightly decreased to 514,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may repair upwards in the short term [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.44% to 17080 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 99,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S fell 3 to $1994/ton, and the total position was 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16975 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16900 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.09% to 21852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 250,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S fell 43 to $2870/ton, and the total position was 215,600 lots. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 157,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai zinc is expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269880 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 to 6600 tons. The average price of Shanghai spot tin ingots was 270500 yuan/ton, down 2000 yuan/ton. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State resumed slowly, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still existed. It is expected that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors is booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is still weak. In August, the tin solder output of sample enterprises increased by 7.99% month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120730 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. In the spot market, the transaction was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of ferronickel was also stable. The price of MHP coefficient increased slightly [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,660 yuan, up 0.33%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 200 yuan [19]. - **Strategy**: Lithium prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 75,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.93% to 2879 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position increased by 0.8 to 444,000 lots. The Shandong spot price fell 15 to 2925 yuan/ton, with a 75 - yuan premium to the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $322/ton, and the import window opened [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12890 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased by 2.51% [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to run in a volatile manner in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Tuesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.22% to 20255 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.03 to 50,000 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above and supported by scrap aluminum costs [29].

政策扰动市场情绪，板块品种价格仍有 ⽀撑 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-23 昨⽇《钢铁⾏业稳增⻓⼯作⽅案（2025—2026年）》出台，强调" ⾏业增加值年均增⻓4%左右"和"严禁新增产能"，与现⾏的⾏业 增速以及市场预期⼀致，致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温，板块品种期 价受此影响⼩幅回调，夜盘时段围绕⽇盘低点震荡运⾏。但结合产业 链⾃⾝，保持旺季背景下的边际改善，叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议 仍有预期，因此板块品种价格仍有⽀撑。 昨日《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》出台，强调"行 业增加值年均增长4%左右"和"严禁新增产能"，与现行的行业增速 以及市场预期一致，致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温，板块品种期价受 此影响小幅回调，夜盘时段围绕日盘低点震荡运行。但结合产业链自 身，保持旺季背景下的边际改善，叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议仍有 预期，因此板块品种价格仍有支撑。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿发运回落、但仍维持高位水平，上周到港量因 前期台风扰动节奏而大幅增加，但当前我国海域再现台风影响，因此 预计到港量仍有扰动。反观铁矿需求保持高位水平，国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on the current warm macro - atmosphere, relatively low - valued steel prices, high iron - water production, and the short - term difficulty in forming obvious negative feedback pressure, steel prices are expected to fluctuate but have obvious support and a small rebound space [3]. - The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has a phased increase, and the arrival volume is relatively lagging and shows a short - term decline. The demand for iron ore is supported by high - level iron - water production. Iron ore is expected to be firm in the short term, but the room for further upward movement is relatively limited [4]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has recovered, and there is no obvious inventory pressure. With the high - level iron - water production and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment expectation, as well as the approaching Fed rate - cut window, coking coal and coke are expected to have obvious low - level support and phased rebound momentum [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products slowed down slightly. The production and demand of rebar decreased, and the increase in total inventory narrowed, but the social inventory still increased significantly, indicating limited improvement in terminal demand and cautious market transactions. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased, with an improved fundamental situation. During the domestic policy vacuum period, steel prices showed a low - level weak adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 211.93 million tons (down 3.09% month - on - month and up 12.78% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 325.14 million tons (up 3.47% month - on - month and up 7.60% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased, while hot - rolled coil production increased [16][18]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was - 14 yuan/ton (down 133% week - on - week and down 141 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 46 yuan/ton (up 35.29% week - on - week and up 173 yuan/ton year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 198.07 million tons (down 1.98% month - on - month and down 10.94% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 326.16 million tons (up 6.81% month - on - month and up 3.23% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 653.86 million tons (up 2.17% month - on - month and up 32.46% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 373.32 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and down 13.43% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land continued to shrink month - on - month. In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 105.59 (up 1.22% month - on - month and up 14.85% year - on - year). The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2850.8 million tons (up 25.75% month - on - month and down 1.78% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons (down 3.50% month - on - month and up 9.60% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 317.78 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 4.97% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 13849.47 million tons (up 0.17% month - on - month and down 9.55% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 million tons (up 0.59% month - on - month and down 1.07% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 82.71% (up 9.14% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 18.44 million tons (down 1.23% month - on - month and up 75.35% year - on - year) [76]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year) [85]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 751.75 million tons (down 3.70% month - on - month and up 7.58% year - on - year), and the coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.91 million tons (up 7.86% month - on - month and up 0.99% year - on - year) [91][97]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the second round of price cuts, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [98]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar contracted from a high level, and the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coils widened. The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke continued to contract, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore contracted slightly [105][111].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong during the peak season, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - Supported by policies and the release of peak - season demand, the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1%, hitting a new high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the 2511 contract closed at 73,960, up 1,080 from T - 1; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040, up 1,100 from T - 1. The trading volumes and open interests of the two contracts also changed, with the trading volume of the 2511 contract at 370,359, down 131,910 from T - 1, and the open interest at 281,264, down 147 from T - 1 [1]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 460, and the spot - 2601 was - 540. The basis between 2511 - 2601 was - 80. The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) was 2,250 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859, up 1 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,880, up 65 from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500, up 50 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,534 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - According to the latest research data of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the retail targets of leading manufacturers accounting for nearly 80% of the total market sales are generally high this month. The retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating on the strong side" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the US interest rate cut has been implemented and the previous trading logic of interest rate cuts has cooled down, the current furnace charge end of the black building materials sector still has strong demand support, so negative feedback is still difficult to initiate. With the release of post - holiday replenishment demand and the expectation of favorable domestic and foreign policies, the prices of some varieties in the sector are expected to strengthen steadily [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - After the US interest rate cut of 25BP was implemented on the 18th, the policy cooled down briefly, leading to a slight decline in the day - session futures prices. At night, with the hot metal output remaining above 2.4 million tons, the furnace charge was further supported, and the iron ore price was relatively resistant to decline. In the later period, with the peak - season atmosphere and downstream replenishment before the National Day, the black building materials sector is expected to remain stable, and the prices of sector varieties are expected to be supported [2]. 2. Element - Based Analysis Iron Element - The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment in the middle and late ten - days. The fundamentals of iron ore are still healthy, but the overall peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which may limit the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and the downstream inventory available days are at a low level. There is still an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. With the support of stable and rebounding coal prices, the cost support is relatively strong. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. Currently, coal mines are cautious in production under over - speed checks, and the supply has limited room for further increase. With the pre - National Day replenishment of the middle and lower reaches, the inventory is accelerating the transfer from top to bottom. The price is expected to fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [3]. Alloys - The peak - season expectation supports the manganese - silicon futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [3]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Individual Variety Analysis Steel - The overall spot market trading volume of steel is weak. The production of some regional steel mills has decreased, and the demand for rebar has recovered. The profit of hot - rolled coils is better than that of rebar, and the inventory has increased. The peak - season demand for steel has recovered less than expected, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals of rebar are better than those of hot - rolled coils. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume of iron ore has decreased. The supply is stable, and the demand has increased slightly. The overall inventory is stable. The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has increased, indicating pre - holiday replenishment. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which limits the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [8]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the available days of inventory are at a low level. The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally, and it may follow the finished - product steel to face pressure [10]. Coke - There are both voices of price increase and decrease in the market. The overall supply remains at a high level. The demand is supported by rigid demand, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly. As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal has increased slightly, and the supply has limited room for further increase. The downstream has started pre - holiday replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the price will fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [11]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. Manganese Silicon - The peak - season expectation supports the futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [16]. Silicon Iron - The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [17].